Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of October 8th, 2013

Clarksville, TN – Due to a lapse in appropriations, the government entered a partial shutdown. Some 800,000 federal workers were furloughed and about two million others continued to work but without getting paid. The economic impact of the shutdown will depend on how long it lasts.

A few days would not be a big deal, but a prolonged shutdown would result in a larger disruption of worker income (and corresponding restraint in consumer spending). In addition, the uncertainty may lead businesses to delay new hiring or capital expenditures. During the 1995-96 government shutdown, about 20% of private contracts with the government were affected.

The stock market gyrated, oscillating between concerns about a protracted shutdown (and possible breach of the federal debt ceiling) and strong hope that the situation would be resolved at some point. The dollar weakened. The four-week Treasury bill yield popped, reflecting some possibility of a default.

Next week, the government shutdown is expected to continue and most of the economic data releases will be delayed. The debt ceiling is likely to become a more immediate concern, as the downside risks to the financial markets and the economy are a lot more substantial.

Indices

	Last	Last Week	YTD return %
DJIA	14996.48	15328.30	14.44%
NASDAQ	3774.34	3787.43	25.00%
S&P 500	1678.66	1698.67	17.70%
MSCI EAFE	1820.63	1832.08	13.51%
Russell 2000	1070.90	1078.41	26.08%

Consumer Money Rates

	Last	1-year ago
Prime Rate	3.25	3.25
Fed Funds	0.09	0.17
30-year mortgage	4.32	3.36

Currencies

	Last	1-year ago
Dollars per British Pound	1.617	1.609
Dollars per Euro	1.362	1.291
Japanese Yen per Dollar	97.240	78.550
Canadian Dollars per Dollar	1.032	0.986
Mexican Peso per Dollar	13.230	12.824

Commodities

	Last	1-year ago
Crude Oil	103.31	88.14
Gold	1316.35	1779.18

Bond Rates

	Last	1-month ago
2-year treasury	0.32	0.45
10-year treasury	2.62	2.92
10-year municipal (TEY)	4.34	4.94

Treasury Yield Curve – 10/04/2013

S&P Sector Performance (YTD) – 10/04/2013

Economic Calendar

October 8th	—	Small Business Optimism Index (September) Trade Balance (August)
October 9th	—	FOMC Minutes (September 17th-18th)
October 10th	—	Jobless Claims (week ending October 5th)
October 11th	—	Producer Price Index (September) Retail Sales (September) Consumer Sentiment (mid-October) Business Inventories (August)
October 14th	—	Columbus Day (bond market closed)
October 16th	—	Consumer Price Index (September) Fed Beige Book
October 17th	—	Building Permits, Housing Starts (September) Industrial Production (September)
Mid-October	—	Debt Ceiling becomes binding
October 30th	—	FOMC Policy Decision, no press briefing

Important Disclosures

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. There are special risks involved with global investing related to market and currency fluctuations, economic and political instability, and different financial accounting standards. The above material has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete. There is no assurance that any trends mentioned will continue in the future. While interest on municipal bonds is generally exempt from federal income tax, it may be subject to the federal alternative minimum tax, state or local taxes. In addition, certain municipal bonds (such as Build America Bonds) are issued without a federal tax exemption, which subjects the related interest income to federal income tax. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss.

US government bonds and treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. US government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Treasury bills are certificates reflecting short-term (less than one year) obligations of the US government.

Commodities trading is generally considered speculative because of the significant potential for investment loss. Markets for commodities are likely to be volatile and there may be sharp price fluctuations even during periods when prices overall are rising. Specific sector investing can be subject to different and greater risks than more diversified investments.

Tax Equiv Muni yields (TEY) assume a 35% tax rate on triple-A rated, tax-exempt insured revenue bonds.

Material prepared by Raymond James for use by its financial advisors.

The information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Data source: Bloomberg, as of close of business October 3rd, 2013.

©2013 Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. member FINRA / SIPC.