Clarksville, TN – In her nomination hearing before the Senate Banking Committee, Janet Yellen took a balanced approach in discussing how she would conduct monetary policy, but the markets took that as “dovish.”
She gave no hint that the pace of asset purchases would be tapered anytime soon, but she also cautioned that the program could not last indefinitely. She noted that the economy is far from fully recovered and indicated that “we have farther to go” in the labor market.
The economic calendar was relatively thin. Industrial production edged down in October, but that partly reflected a pullback in the output of utilities (which was boosted by colder-than-normal temperatures in September).Manufacturing output rose moderately. The trade deficit widened unexpectedly in September, implying a downward revision to the 3Q13 GDP growth estimate.
Next week, the important stuff bunches up on Wednesday, with the reports on retail sales, the CPI, and existing home sales. That afternoon, the Fed will release the minutes of its policy meeting from late October. The outcome of that meeting was never much in doubt, but that doesn’t mean that there weren’t active policy debates.
Investors will be looking for clues on what the Fed will do in December. Officials are likely to have remained divided on when to begin tapering the pace of asset purchases. They may have also discussed possible changes to the forward guidance (on short-term interest rates), such as whether to lower the unemployment rate threshold (currently 6.5%).
Indices
 | Last | Last Week | YTD return % |
DJIA | 15876.22 | 15593.98 | 21.15% |
NASDAQ | 3972.74 | 3857.33 | 31.57% |
S&P 500 | 1790.62 | 1747.15 | 25.55% |
MSCI EAFE | 1862.30 | 1854.72 | 16.10% |
Russell 2000 | 1111.44 | 1079.09 | 30.86% |
Consumer Money Rates
 | Last | 1-year ago |
Prime Rate | 3.25 | 3.25 |
Fed Funds | 0.10 | 0.17 |
30-year mortgage | 4.16 | 3.34 |
Currencies
 | Last | 1-year ago |
Dollars per British Pound | 1.607 | 1.586 |
Dollars per Euro | 1.347 | 1.275 |
Japanese Yen per Dollar | 99.920 | 80.150 |
Canadian Dollars per Dollar | 1.047 | 1.003 |
Mexican Peso per Dollar | 12.983 | 13.231 |
Commodities
 | Last | 1-year ago |
Crude Oil | 93.76 | 86.32 |
Gold | 1288.24 | 1729.52 |
Bond Rates
 | Last | 1-month ago |
2-year treasury | 0.29 | 0.31 |
10-year treasury | 2.71 | 2.58 |
10-year municipal (TEY) | 4.38 | 4.40 |
Treasury Yield Curve – 11/15/2013
S&P Sector Performance (YTD) – 11/15/2013
Economic Calendar
November 18 |
 — |
Homebuilder Sentiment (November) |
November 19 |
 — |
Employment Cost Index (3Q13) Bernanke Speaks (“Communication and Monetary Policy”) |
November 20 |
 — |
Consumer Price Index (October) Retail Sales (October) Existing Home Sales (October) FOMC Minutes (October 29-30) |
November 21 |
 — |
Jobless Claims (week ending November 16) Producer Price Index (October) Philly Fed Index (November) |
November 25 |
 — |
Pending Home Sales Index (October) |
November 26 |
 — |
Building Permits, Housing Starts (September, October) Consumer Confidence (November) |
November 27 |
 — |
Durable Goods Orders (October) |
November 28 |
 — |
Thanksgiving (markets closed) |
December 6 |
 — |
Employment Report (November) |
December 18 |
 — |
FOMC Policy Decision, Bernanke Press Briefing |
Important Disclosures
US government bonds and treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. US government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Treasury bills are certificates reflecting short-term (less than one year) obligations of the US government.
Commodities trading is generally considered speculative because of the significant potential for investment loss. Markets for commodities are likely to be volatile and there may be sharp price fluctuations even during periods when prices overall are rising. Specific sector investing can be subject to different and greater risks than more diversified investments.
Tax Equiv Muni yields (TEY) assume a 35% tax rate on triple-A rated, tax-exempt insured revenue bonds.
Material prepared by Raymond James for use by its financial advisors.
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Data source: Bloomberg, as of close of business November 14th, 2013.
©2013 Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. member FINRA / SIPC.