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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of March 9th, 2014

 

F&M Investment Services - Raymond James - Clarksville, TNClarksville, TN – There was plenty of fresh economic data, but most of it was distorted by the weather (which can have different effects depending on which areas of the country get hit).

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 175,000 in the initial estimate for February (median forecast: +150,000, although market participants were likely braced for about +130,000). Figures for December and January were revised a net 25,000 higher.

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The unemployment rate edged back up to 6.7% (from 6.6% in January), but that likely reflected the usual statistical noise in the survey. Weather did have an impact on average weekly hour, which edged lower (and January was revised down). The ISM surveys for February were mixed. The Fed’s Beige Book noted some restraint from the weather.

The situation in Ukraine heated up, spooking U.S. stock market investors, but only briefly (as the market rallied back the next day). The bond market looked to the stock market for direction, but the better-than-expected jobs data pushed bond yields higher.

Next week, the economic calendar thins out. The report on retail sales is likely to be the highlight, although February is a throwaway month for most retailers and weather is likely to have had an impact in some areas. The newly expanded Producer Price Index (now with services) did not receive much fanfare last month.

Pipeline inflation pressures are expected to remain relatively mild. In a slow week for economic news, overseas developments have a somewhat greater potential to move the financial markets. By the end of the week, attention should turn ahead to the Fed’s policy meeting and Yellen’s press briefing.

Indices

  Last Last Week YTD return %
DJIA 16421.89 16272.65 -0.93%
NASDAQ 4352.13 4318.933 4.20%
S&P 500 1877.03 1854.29 1.55%
MSCI EAFE 1940.23 1923.34 1.29%
Russell 2000 1204.54 1187.94 3.52%

Consumer Money Rates

  Last 1-year ago
Prime Rate 3.25 3.25
Fed Funds 0.08 0.16
30-year mortgage 4.28 3.52

Currencies

  Last 1-year ago
Dollars per British Pound 1.676 1.502
Dollars per Euro 1.386 1.299
Japanese Yen per Dollar 102.970 93.920
Canadian Dollars per Dollar 1.098 1.032
Mexican Peso per Dollar 13.152 12.746

Commodities

  Last 1-year ago
Crude Oil 101.56 90.43
Gold 1348.97 1576.00

Bond Rates

  Last 1-month ago
2-year treasury 0.37 0.30
10-year treasury 2.80 2.67
10-year municipal (TEY) 4.35 4.49

Treasury Yield Curve – 3/7/2014

Treasury Yield Curve – 3/7/2014

S&P Sector Performance (YTD) – 3/7/2014

S&P Sector Performance (YTD) – 3/7/2014

Economic Calendar

March 11th

 —

Small Business Optimism Index (February)
Job Openings and Labor Turnover (January)
March 13th

 —

Jobless Claims (week ending March 8th)
Import Prices (February)
Retail Sales (February)
March 14th

 —

Producer Price Index (February)
March 17th

 —

Industrial Production (February)
March 18th

 —

Consumer Price Index (February)
Housing Starts, Building Permits (February)
March 19th

 —

FOMC Policy Decision, Yellen Press Briefing
April 4th

 —

Employment Report (March)

Important Disclosures

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. There are special risks involved with global investing related to market and currency fluctuations, economic and political instability, and different financial accounting standards. The above material has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete. There is no assurance that any trends mentioned will continue in the future. While interest on municipal bonds is generally exempt from federal income tax, it may be subject to the federal alternative minimum tax, state or local taxes. In addition, certain municipal bonds (such as Build America Bonds) are issued without a federal tax exemption, which subjects the related interest income to federal income tax. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss.

US government bonds and treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. US government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Treasury bills are certificates reflecting short-term (less than one year) obligations of the US government.

Commodities trading is generally considered speculative because of the significant potential for investment loss. Markets for commodities are likely to be volatile and there may be sharp price fluctuations even during periods when prices overall are rising. Specific sector investing can be subject to different and greater risks than more diversified investments.

Tax Equiv Muni yields (TEY) assume a 35% tax rate on triple-A rated, tax-exempt insured revenue bonds.

Material prepared by Raymond James for use by its financial advisors.

The information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Data source: Bloomberg, as of close of business March 6th, 2013.

©2014 Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. member FINRA / SIPC.


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