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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of March 16th, 2014

 

F&M Investment Services - Raymond James - Clarksville, TNClarksville, TN – Next week, the focus will be on the Fed’s policy decision and Janet Yellen’s first press briefing as Fed chair. The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to taper the monthly pace of asset purchases by another $10 billion (to $55 billion).

Policymakers are also expected to tweak the language of the forward guidance (the Fed’s conditional commitment to keep the overnight lending rate exceptionally low). Specifically, we can expect the FOMC to discard the 6.5% unemployment rate threshold.

Frazier Allen

Frazier Allen

Officials have already indicated that they intend to look at a wide range of indicators to gauge the strength of the labor market.

With elevated long-term unemployment, high unemployment rates for teenagers and young adults, and widespread evidence of underemployment, a full recovery in the labor market is still a long way off.

Fed officials will update their projections of growth, unemployment, inflation, and the path of the federal funds rate. Yellen is expected to be a better communicator than her predecessor.

Indices

  Last Last Week YTD return %
DJIA 16108.89 16421.89 -2.82%
NASDAQ 4260.42 4352.13 2.01%
S&P 500 1846.34 1877.03 -0.11%
MSCI EAFE 1889.43 1940.23 -1.37%
Russell 2000 1176.74 1204.54 1.13%

Consumer Money Rates

  Last 1-year ago
Prime Rate 3.25 3.25
Fed Funds 0.07 0.16
30-year mortgage 4.37 3.63

Currencies

  Last 1-year ago
Dollars per British Pound 1.663 1.493
Dollars per Euro 1.386 1.297
Japanese Yen per Dollar 101.830 96.060
Canadian Dollars per Dollar 1.106 1.027
Mexican Peso per Dollar 13.263 12.393

Commodities

  Last 1-year ago
Crude Oil 98.20 92.52
Gold 1371.38 1589.52

Bond Rates

  Last 1-month ago
2-year treasury 0.34 0.31
10-year treasury 2.64 2.74
10-year municipal (TEY) 4.40 4.48

Treasury Yield Curve – 3/14/2014

Treasury Yield Curve – 3/14/2014

S&P Sector Performance (YTD) – 3/14/2014

S&P Sector Performance (YTD) – 3/14/2014

Economic Calendar

March 17th

 —

Empire State Manufacturing Index (March)
Industrial Production (February)
March 18th

 —

Consumer Price Index (February)
Housing Starts, Building Permits (February)
March 19th

 —

FOMC Policy Decision, Yellen Press Briefing
April 4th

 —

Employment Report (March)
April 30th

 —

Real GDP (1Q14, advance estimate)
FOMC Policy Decision (no press briefing)

Important Disclosures

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. There are special risks involved with global investing related to market and currency fluctuations, economic and political instability, and different financial accounting standards. The above material has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete. There is no assurance that any trends mentioned will continue in the future. While interest on municipal bonds is generally exempt from federal income tax, it may be subject to the federal alternative minimum tax, state or local taxes. In addition, certain municipal bonds (such as Build America Bonds) are issued without a federal tax exemption, which subjects the related interest income to federal income tax. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss.

US government bonds and treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. US government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Treasury bills are certificates reflecting short-term (less than one year) obligations of the US government.

Commodities trading is generally considered speculative because of the significant potential for investment loss. Markets for commodities are likely to be volatile and there may be sharp price fluctuations even during periods when prices overall are rising. Specific sector investing can be subject to different and greater risks than more diversified investments.

Tax Equiv Muni yields (TEY) assume a 35% tax rate on triple-A rated, tax-exempt insured revenue bonds.

Material prepared by Raymond James for use by its financial advisors.

The information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Data source: Bloomberg, as of close of business March 13th, 2013.

©2014 Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. member FINRA / SIPC.


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