Clarksville, TN – The economic data were mixed. The ISM surveys were consistent with improving activity. The trade deficit was much wider than expected in April, suggesting that next exports will restrain 2Q14 GDP growth to some extent.
The May Employment Report was “boring,” with nonfarm payroll up by 217,000 (vs. a median forecast of +215,000) and a net revision of -6,000 to March and April. The unemployment rate held steady at 6.3%. The trend in job growth has been relatively strong, but not so much that the Fed is going to take the punchbowl away anytime soon.
After optimistic expectations in the previous week that ECB officials would do a lot to spur the flow of credit, financial markets grew a bit more cautious ahead of the policy meeting.The ECB did not disappoint, lowering short-term interest rates and making other efforts to improve the flow of bank credit.
Next week, the economic calendar thins out. Retail sales are expected to be the highlight. Stronger vehicle sales have lifted expectation for the May sales figure.
Indices
Last | Last Week | YTD return % | |
DJIA | 16836.11 | 16698.74 | 1.57% |
NASDAQ | 4296.23 | 4247.95 | 2.86% |
S&P 500 | 1940.46 | 1920.03 | 4.98% |
MSCI EAFE | 1961.57 | 1955.68 | 2.40% |
Russell 2000 | 1153.94 | 1140.07 | -0.83% |
Consumer Money Rates
Last | 1-year ago | |
Prime Rate | 3.25 | 3.25 |
Fed Funds | 0.08 | 0.09 |
30-year mortgage | 4.14 | 3.91 |
Currencies
Last | 1-year ago | |
Dollars per British Pound | 1.676 | 1.536 |
Dollars per Euro | 1.361 | 1.306 |
Japanese Yen per Dollar | 102.490 | 99.600 |
Canadian Dollars per Dollar | 1.094 | 1.035 |
Mexican Peso per Dollar | 12.922 | 12.737 |
Commodities
Last | 1-year ago | |
Crude Oil | 102.48 | 93.74 |
Gold | 1245.25 | 1396.39 |
Bond Rates
Last | 1-month ago | |
2-year treasury | 0.39 | 0.39 |
10-year treasury | 2.57 | 2.60 |
10-year municipal (TEY) | 3.77 | 3.83 |
Treasury Yield Curve – 6/6/2014
S&P Sector Performance (YTD) – 6/6/2014
Economic Calendar
June 10th | — | Small Business Optimism Index (May) |
June 12th | — | Jobless Claims (week ending June 7th) Import Prices (May) Retail Sales (May) |
June 13th | — | Producer Price Index (May) Consumer Sentiment (mid-June) |
June 16th | — | Industrial Production (May) Homebuilder Sentiment (June) |
June 18th | — | FOMC Policy Decision, Yellen press conference |
Important Disclosures
US government bonds and treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. US government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Treasury bills are certificates reflecting short-term (less than one year) obligations of the US government.
Commodities trading is generally considered speculative because of the significant potential for investment loss. Markets for commodities are likely to be volatile and there may be sharp price fluctuations even during periods when prices overall are rising. Specific sector investing can be subject to different and greater risks than more diversified investments.
Tax Equiv Muni yields (TEY) assume a 35% tax rate on triple-A rated, tax-exempt insured revenue bonds.
Material prepared by Raymond James for use by its financial advisors.
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Data source: Bloomberg, as of close of business June 5th, 2014.
©2014 Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. member FINRA / SIPC.