Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of July 29th, 2015

Clarksville, TN – This week the economic calendar is busy. The focus is likely to be on the GDP report (note that financial market participants typically over-emphasize the headline figure – the devil is in the details).

Durable goods orders are expected to have been boosted by a pickup in aircraft orders in June, but the trend in non-transportation orders has been weak in recent months. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index rose sharply in June – so it wouldn’t be unusual to see a modest pullback in July.

Fed policymakers are not expected to raise short-term interest rates, but they may drop a clue about a possible September hike in the policy statement. Real GDP is expected to have risen at a moderately strong pace in 2Q15, but there’s always a lot of uncertainty in the advance estimate.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis will also issue annual benchmark revisions (this is a “garden-variety” revision – no changes to the methodology), which may shift growth from one quarter to another, but isn’t likely to alter the overall picture much.

The Employment Cost Index, a key indicator of inflation pressure, ticked up in 1Q15 (adding some support for Fed tightening), but is likely to moderate in 2Q15 (which would reduce the likelihood of a September rate hike).

Important Disclosures

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Material prepared by Raymond James for use by its financial advisors.

The information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Data source: Bloomberg, as of close of business July 23rd, 2015.

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