Nashville, TN – The National Weather Service (NWS) reports the spring flood outlook for 2016 has an above average risk in the short-term and average risk for the rest of the spring.
For the spring of 2016, there is an average to above average risk for flooding for Clarksville-Montgomery County and across Middle Tennessee. Recent precipitation has left area soils very moist and stream flows remain elevated.
This has increased the over-all flood risk in the short-term to above average with an average flood risk for the long-term.
Existing Conditions
Precipitation for February was slightly above normal and soil moisture remains nearly saturated across the area. Once spring green up occurs, vegetation will begin to use this moisture and more rainfall will be needed before soils become saturated and runoff occurs.
Therefore, once plants and trees are no longer dormant our flood risk becomes average. This winter, temperatures have been above normal with December 2015 recording average temperatures higher than 10 degrees above normal. This unusually warm winter has prevented any frozen ground issues and the current temperature outlook does not indicate any snow or ice problems developing.
With precipitation for the winter averaging near to above normal, area stream flows for early march are also averaging near to above normal. Any significant precipitation events could lead to further rises on area rivers, especially the lower portions of the Cumberland River basin, the Duck River basin and the Tennessee River basin as well as the small and medium sized tributaries to these rivers.
Meteorological outlook
The climate prediction center forecasts indicate there is a slightly higher probability of wetter than normal conditions over the next few weeks and a slightly higher probability of above normal temperatures across the mid-state for the month of march.
For the spring months of March-April-May. The climate prediction center forecasts indicate there are equal probabilities of above, below, or normal temperatures and an increased probability of below normal precipitation across Middle Tennessee.
2016 Spring Flood Outlook
The overall spring flood outlook is above average in the short- term due to recent rainfall, elevated stream flows, and an increased probability of above normal rainfall. However, once green up occurs expect an average risk of flooding for the remainder of the spring.
Counties Affected
Clay County, Macon County, Montgomery County, Pickett County, Robertson County, Stewart County, and Sumner County.
