Frazier Allen, WMS, CRPS, Financial Advisor with F&M Bank
Frazier Allen's Articles:
Clarksville, TN – Next week, fresh economic figures will arrive, but none of the reports, including the November employment report, are expected to sway the Fed away from raising short-term interest rates on December 14th.
Job growth is expected to have been moderately strong in November, but keep a close eye on average hourly earnings, which have suggested the wage pressures are building (note that the average hourly earnings figures can be quirky – they are often revised the next month – but the trend is higher).
Clarksville, TN – Most of us really look forward to the idea of well-deserved, unstructured free time. A time to do exactly what we please when we please. Until we get it.
A retirement satisfaction survey from EBRI found that half of retirees (51.4%) in 2012 reported being somewhat or not at all satisfied with their retirement. Some retirees underestimate how long it takes to adjust to a new lifestyle; others miss friends from work; still others find themselves with too much free time.
Clarksville, TN – The Federal Open Market Committee left short-term interest rates unchanged, as expected, and the policy statement was a near photocopy of the one in September.
The FOMC noted that “the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has continued to strengthen,” but for the time being, officials decided “to wait for some further evidence of continued progress towards our objectives.”
The October Employment Report was largely in line with expectations. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 161,000 (median forecast: +175,000), but the two previous months were revised a net 44,000 higher.
Clarksville, TN – Real GDP rose at a 2.9% annual rate in the advance estimate of third quarter growth, a bit on the high side of expectations. However, the economy was not as strong as the headline figure suggests (similarly, growth over the four previous quarters was not as weak as the GDP number implies).
Inventories, which had been slowing over the five previous quarters (subtracting from GDP growth), rose at a faster pace (adding 0.6 percentage point to overall growth). Net exports (a narrower trade deficit) added 0.8 percentage point.
Clarksville, TN – The recent economic data reports have done little to alter the overall picture (moderate growth, low inflation). The Fed’s Beige Book noted that economic activity has continued to expand, with most Fed districts describing growth as “modest” or “moderate.”
In mid-September, nine of the 12 district banks had requested an increase in the discount rate (the rate the Fed charges banks for short-term borrowing) – one more than in late July – suggesting internal pressures for higher short-term interest rates at the Fed.
Clarksville, TN – Minutes of the September 20-21 policy meeting showed that Federal Open Market Committee members were divided on whether to raise short-term interest rates, and most of those voting to wait felt that it was “a close call.”
Financial markets have increasingly priced in a mid-December rate hike. Amid a thin economic calendar, investors focused on what’s happening in the rest of the world, but also reacted to the initial earnings reports for 3Q16.
Clarksville, TN – The economic data were mixed. The ISM surveys both surprised to the upside, suggesting that the August slowdown was temporary. Unit auto sales were down from a year ago, but up relative to August on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Nonfarm payrolls rose a bit less than expected, while the unemployment rate ticked modestly higher – the start of the school year makes the September figures suspect, but the underlying trends suggest further improvement in overall labor market conditions.
Clarksville, TN – The economic data were mixed. Consumer confidence rose in September. Durable goods orders were mixed. The estimate of 3Q16 GDP growth was revised higher (to a 1.4% annual rate, held back by a sharp slowing in inventory growth).
Personal income rose modestly in August, as expected, but spending was softer than anticipated, suggesting a possible loss of momentum following a strong spring and early summer (economists’ estimate of GDP growth were revised down for both 3Q16 and 4Q16).
Clarksville, TN – Alzheimer’s is a progressive disease that includes three basic stages: mild, moderate, and severe.
Denial is one serious challenge families often face with Alzheimer’s. Due to the progressive nature of the disease, people with Alzheimer’s and other forms of dementia have a limited window in which they will be able to articulate their wishes for future care, living arrangements, finances, and legal matters.
For this reason, it’s important for families to discuss their concerns and work through this denial phase in the mild stage of cognitive decline.
Clarksville, TN – Your daughter recently welcomed her first child – your first grandchild – and you’re already in love. You envision festive holidays spent together, bouncing him or her on your knee, and buying heaps of toys and adorable shoes.
But you may be able to offer so much more. Grandparents like you have historically had a powerful influence in the lives of their grandchildren and have a wealth of experience and knowledge to share.
So what kind of power are we talking about? Now that you’ve joined the grandparents club, you’re what anthropologists call a “secret benefactor” of humanity.
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