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    Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of January 26th, 2015

     

    F&M Investment Services - Raymond James - Clarksville, TNClarksville, TN – As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) signaled that it would begin a quantitative easing program, purchasing €60 billion per month in public and private securities through September 2016.

    The amount of monthly purchases was a bit higher than anticipated, but that included the ECB’s already-existing program to purchase asset-backed securities and covered bonds. The ECB’s announcement sent the euro sharply lower.

    Frazier Allen

    Frazier Allen

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    Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of January 18th, 2015

     

    F&M Investment Services - Raymond James - Clarksville, TNClarksville, TN – Investors remained concerned about the global economy. The Swiss National Bank abandoned its currency ceiling against the euro, generating turmoil in the foreign exchange markets and adding to investor anxiety in the U.S.

    While the Swiss franc surged, the U.S. dollar gained further ground against other currencies and a flight to safety pushed yields on long-term Treasuries lower (the 30-year bond yield to an all-time low). The SNB’s move reflected the central bank’s inability to defend the ceiling (especially with the European Central Bank expected to embark on QE next week), but investors took it as a sign of global financial instability.

    Frazier Allen

    Frazier Allen

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    Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of January 11th, 2015

     

    F&M Investment Services - Raymond James - Clarksville, TNClarksville, TN – The December Employment Report was strong, but with some conflicting details. Nonfarm payrolls rose by a greater-than-expected 252,000 (median forecast: +240,000), with a net revision to October and November of +50,000.

    It was the strongest year for job growth since 1999 (and the strongest private-sector job growth since 1997). The unemployment rate fell to 5.6% (median forecast: 5.7%), with annual benchmark revisions making little difference – however, the drop in the unemployment rate was due entirely to a decrease in labor force participation (don’t read too much into that, seasonal adjustment is tricky in December).

    Frazier Allen

    Frazier Allen

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    Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of January 4th, 2015

     

    F&M Investment Services - Raymond James - Clarksville, TNClarksville, TN – Two days before Christmas, the government revised its estimate of 3Q14 GDP growth sharply higher (to 5.0%, vs. +3.9% in the 2nd estimate). Most of the revision was in consumer spending (a 3.2% annual rate, vs. +2.2%), which accounts for 70% of the economy.

    Moreover, the monthly figures through November suggest an even stronger pace of consumer spending growth in 4Q14 (4.0% to 4.5%). It’s not hard to do the consumer spending calculation (and the monthly figures are subject to revision), but the markets seemed not to fully reflect the improved consumer outlook.

    Frazier Allen

    Frazier Allen

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    Frazier Allen lists 12 Financial Resolutions for the New Year

     

    Review and revamp your financial plan all year long.

    F&M Investment Services - Raymond James - Clarksville, TNClarksville, TN – While resolutions are something you normally might associate with the new year, this particular set of resolutions remains valid and relevant any time of year. That’s why I’m sharing with you this list of 12 Financial Resolutions.

    As you read this list, I’m sure you’ll find the suggestions relevant to your own financial life. Topics range from revisiting your portfolio’s asset allocation to making sure your retirement plan is on track.

    Frazier Allen

    Frazier Allen

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    Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of December 22nd, 2014

     

    F&M Investment Services - Raymond James - Clarksville, TNClarksville, TN – The stock market’s anxieties about oil prices, the Fed, and the rest of the world gave way to a renewed sense of optimism (or at least less pessimism).

    Heading into the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, the key question was whether it would abandon the “considerable time” phrase. The FOMC had it both ways, removing the phrase, saying instead that it could “be patient” in deciding when to begin normalizing policy, but quickly adding that the intent is exactly the same.

    Frazier Allen

    Frazier Allen

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    New Legislation Extends Popular Tax Provisions

     

    F&M Investment Services - Raymond James - Clarksville, TNClarksville, TN – In one of its final actions, the 113th Congress passed the Tax Increase Prevention Act of 2014. This legislation extends for one year a host of popular tax provisions (commonly referred to as “tax extenders”) that had expired at the end of 2013.

    The President is expected to sign the legislation. All of the following provisions were among those retroactively extended, and are now effective through the end of 2014.

    Frazier Allen

    Frazier Allen

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    Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of December 14th, 2014

     

    F&M Investment Services - Raymond James - Clarksville, TNClarksville, TN – Retail sales figures for November were stronger than expected, while results for September and October were revised higher. The report suggests that consumer spending growth is on a moderately strong path in 4Q14 – and we aren’t even close to seeing the full impact of the drop in gasoline prices (expect a bigger benefit for the consumer in the first half of 2015).

    The retail sales data did little to offset the negative mood in equities. A further sharp decline in crude oil prices added to the anxiety. A sustained drop in oil prices will be a significant negative for oil producers here and abroad.

    Frazier Allen

    Frazier Allen

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    Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of December 7th, 2014

     

    F&M Investment Services - Raymond James - Clarksville, TNClarksville, TN – In recent weeks, the U.S. stock market has reacted negatively to bad economic news out of Japan, China, and the euro area and positively to efforts by the corresponding central banks to spur growth. The European Central Bank did not make that extra effort on Thursday.

    After strong hints that quantitative easing is on the way, the ECB’s Governing Council disappointed by failing to launch QE. ECB President Draghi indicated that further extraordinary measures could be employed “if needed.” The ECB staff and euro systems have stepped up technical preparations for QE, but Draghi seemed to suggest that there is no haste toward QE.

    Frazier Allen

    Frazier Allen

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    Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of December 2nd, 2014

     

    F&M Investment Services - Raymond James - Clarksville, TNClarksville, TN – This week, the economic calendar picks up with fresh November figures. The focus is expected to be on the Employment Report, although the European Central Bank’s policy decision may be more critical.

    ECB President Mario Draghi has repeatedly signaled that QE is on its way. Will the ECB pull the trigger this week? Seems likely (but if not, then in January).

    Nonfarm payrolls were likely to have risen at a moderately strong pace, but seasonal adjustment could distort the figures (so take with a grain of salt).

    Frazier Allen

    Frazier Allen

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