Jason Keller, NASCAR race driver

NASHVILLE – State Water Heaters, in conjunction with Baker Curb Racing, has pledged to donate $5,000 to the American Red Cross to assist in tornado relief efforts as part of the NASCAR Nationwide Series Relief Fund Team Challenge.  The NASCAR Nationwide Series Relief Fund Team Challenge is taking place this week at Nashville Super Speedway and is a competition between crews to see who can make the largest donation to the Nashville Chapter of the American Red Cross.  The winning crew will receive recognition from ESPN 2 during the pre-race coverage of Saturday’s Federated Auto Parts 300.

“State Water Heaters is pleased to give to such a wonderful cause, said David Chisolm, State Water Heaters Brand Manager.   “As a local company who has connections with many of the impacted families, we are privileged to take part in this effort.  Our thanks go out to the NASCAR Nationwide Series Relief Fund Team for spearheading this program.”

State Water Heaters will also make their debut as a primary sponsor on Jason Keller’s No. 27 Ford Fusion in Saturday’s race.  In January, State Water Heaters and Baker Curb Racing announced a sponsorship arrangement for the 2009 NASCAR Nationwide Series. This sponsorship marks State’s fourth consecutive year as a NASCAR team sponsor. Last year, State was the primary sponsor of the Haas CNC Racing Chevrolet driven by Scott Riggs in the Sprint Cup Series.

If you have a computer that has Internet access and meets minimum operating requirements, you can participate in exciting new first aid, CPR and AED blended learning courses from the American Red Cross.

The first part of the training is taken online, which allows you to learn at your own pace. You also have the option of going through the course in an abbreviated format and testing out of lessons with which you may already be familiar. And you don’t need to worry about interruptions at home from kids, phone calls or ringing doorbells. 

Red Cross Web-based training can be stopped and started according to your busy schedule. An example of this training is available at this site:

http://www.redcross.org/cgi-bin/learningdemo/Demo.html

The second part of your training will be led by a Red Cross-trained instructor at your local Clarksville-Montgomery County Red Cross.  During a 2-hour skills practice and assessment session with an instructor, you can practice and demonstrate the skills you’ve learned and earn certification.  The chapter has dates available through the month for these sessions.

Red Cross Web-based Blended Learning lets you choose from the following course options:

• First Aid
• Adult CPR
• Adult CPR/AED
• First Aid and Adult CPR
• First Aid and Adult CPR/AED
• First Aid and Adult CPR/AED and Infant and Child CPR
• Adult, Child and Infant CPR
• First Aid, Child and Infant CPR
• Child and Infant CPR  I
• Adult and Child Automated External Defibrillation (AED)

Call the chapter for more information and how you can register for this program, 931-645-6401 ext 222 or 223.

Whether it’s shopping for presents or the office holiday party, the demand for babysitters is sure to increase. But in order to feel more relaxed and secure, parents and caregivers need to have a sitter they know has been trained in how to care for the safety and well-being of their child.
Each year, the Red Cross trains and certifies over 120,000 sitters nationwide through the Babysitter’s Training program. Course participants learn to administer basic first aid; properly hold and feed a child; take emergency action when needed; monitor safe play and actively engage your child; and some may be certified in Infant and Child CPR.

“Even if you only need someone to watch the children while you put up decorations or prepare a meal – you want peace of mind that your little ones are in capable hands. You should never just grab the first available person,” says Patricia Brown, Health and Safety Director. “If you don’t have a Red Cross trained babysitter near you and the office party is coming up or if you’re current sitter isn’t certified, make an early gift to a youth you trust by giving them a certificate to the next Babysitter’s Training class. It’s one gift that will give back to you over and again.”

The Clarksville-Montgomery County Chapter Babysitter’s Training program is open to girls and boys 11 to 15 yrs. old and in many cases can be completed in a day. All courses are taught by an authorized Red Cross Babysitter’s Training instructor.

There’s no better way to relax and enjoy all the season’s festivities than knowing your children are in the care of a sitter trained by the foremost authority in safety, the American Red Cross.

For information on how to purchase Babysitter’s Training gift certificates or times and locations of upcoming classes, contact the Clarksville-Montgomery County Chapter at 931-645-6401 or log on to www.clarksville.redcross.org.

Halloween should be filled with surprise and enjoyment, and following some common sense practices can keep events safer and more fun.

• Walk, slither, and sneak on sidewalks, not in the street.
• Look both ways before crossing the street to check for cars, trucks, and low-flying brooms.
• Cross the street only at corners.
• Don’t hide or cross the street between parked cars.
• Wear light-colored or reflective-type clothing so you are more visible. (And remember to put reflective tape on bikes, skateboards, and brooms, too!)
• Plan your route and share it with your family. If possible, have an adult go with you.
• Carry a flashlight to light your way.
• Keep away from open fires and candles. (Costumes can be extremely flammable.)
• Visit homes that have the porch light on.
• Accept your treats at the door and never go into a stranger’s house.
• Use face paint rather than masks or things that will cover your eyes.
• Be cautious of animals and strangers.
• Have a grown-up inspect your treats before eating. And don’t eat candy if the package is already opened. Small, hard pieces of candy are a choking hazard for young children.

“In the first 48 to 72 hours of an emergency, many Americans will have to look after themselves.”

– David Paulison, 2005 FEMA Director Nominee

Preparedness for emergency situations is not a solitary pursuit.

Each of us lives in the context of a larger society. Few among us could survive for long without the support of myriad other people and institutions we depend upon for our daily needs. A realistic disaster plan must balance these dependencies against the stark truth that you are likely to be required to survive outside this system for days or weeks at a time at some point in your life.

Being prepared for disaster does not have to be time-consuming or expensive. In this multi-part series of DailyKos Diaries, I will share with you, dear reader, many of the lessons I’ve learned regarding the most effective ways to prepare for an emergency.

This is the third installment in a multi-part series on personal disaster preparedness. Your humble correspondent is a Silicon Valley technical executive with both professional and personal experience in risk assessment and disaster-readiness planning. Links to reference materials, including planning guides and reference information, will be found at the end of the final Diaries in this series.

WARNING: This Diary series discusses a wide range of disaster-related subjects in a straightforward, honest fashion. Some people may experience a strong emotional reaction to reading about or discussing situations which are normally avoided in polite conversation. You have been warned.

Previous Diaries in this series have addressed the basic principles underlying preparedness, including some elementary disaster psychology. The remaining installments, beginning with this one, are sharply focused on the practical aspects of planning and preparation to survive a disaster.

When disaster strikes, will you be prepared?

In this installment, we will complete our discussion of step 2, planning to address risks. As mentioned above, today’s installment is sharply focused on the practical aspects of preparedness planning.

The AlphaGeek approach to disaster preparedness

The field of preparedness planning is an interesting one, full of colorful characters and hair-raising tales. Your humble correspondent is not an ex-Special-Forces badass, nor is he a buckskin-clad outdoor survival specialist. My “specialty”, if you will, is preparedness planning for suburban and exurban environments. Above all, I focus on pragmatic, sustainable plans which recognize the common failure modes for family- and community-level crisis management.

In a nutshell, I believe that family-level preparedness plans (and material support for those plans) should meet the following criteria:

• Any critical element of each plan must have at least one clearly explained alternate solution
• All plans must be in written form, ready to be executed by anyone entrusted with the safety of your family
• A written copy of your plan must be available in any context in which you might need to execute said plan (e.g. home, work, vehicles)
• Everyone involved in your preparedness plans (e.g. out-of-state relatives) must review their part of the plan and understand their role
• Material preparations must not require inspection more than once per year, and must still be capable of meeting minimum requirements if left unattended for 4 years

Red Cross survival gear for your home can be packed in a single tub with a lid

The fact is, folks, that people are lazy, your correspondent included. If your disaster plan depends on dumping and refilling bottles of water every 3 months, let’s face it — at some point, you ARE going to get slack and lose the motivation to keep to the schedule. It takes a pretty deep-seated insecurity complex to consistently maintain your preparedness materials every 90 days over a span of years, and most people just can’t sustain that level of effort. Having bad bottled water and canned food three years past its expiration date isn’t an inconvenience in a crisis — it’s dangerous, because in extremis you might be tempted to use it anyway.

A realistic preparedness plan, in your author’s estimation, should address the following objectives. Remember, tomorrow we will discuss all of the tips and tricks needed to implement a preparedness plan centered on emphasizes practicality and cost-efficiency. The fifth and final installment in this series will detail your correspondent’s preparations for each of these situations, but keep in mind that your preparedness package must address your risks, not those of some guy in California earthquake country.

Communications and rendezvous plan

Cellphones may or may not work; depending on the disaster, towers and power lines may be down.

In a crisis, you are likely to be separated from at least one member of your family. Start with the assumption that your family is at its most vulnerable, i.e. at maximum separation in your daily routines. Your rendezvous plan should address the possibility that family members at work and/or may need to evacuate quickly.

Your communications plan should have two priorities: advise concerned parties on your situation (safe, injured, etc.) and propagate information between people in the disaster zone who may not be able to communicate directly.

House fire: evacuation, response, and aftermath

No explanation needed. If you don’t know what you’re going to do in case of a house fire, you are at significant risk of dying in one. If, after failing to plan, you get out alive the aftermath is likely to be extremely difficult.

Any number of organizations offer complete guides on how to prepare for a home fire emergency, including the Red Cross. Download and use one of these guides today.

Home refuge with no services: Ten (10) days self-sufficiency

Yes, that’s right, folks: 10 days with no running water, no grid electricity, and no natural gas and/or propane delivery. This is most likely to occur during inclement weather (see: natural disasters) so assume that you will need to deal with extremes of heat/humidity or cold. Sanitation and medical requirements for high-needs individuals will both be challenging; plan accordingly.

Open-space refuge with no services: Five (5) days self-sufficiency

If your house is unfit to occupy, you may still be able to set up camp nearby. For this situation, assume that you can recover a significant fraction of your home preparedness package. Identify several likely locations near your home where you might set up a temporary refuge. (NOTE: This is primarily applicable in communities at risk of severe earthquake damage.)

Refuge in/near vehicle: Three (3) days self-sufficiency

Can you live in your vehicle for 3 days? Principal concerns are food, water, clothing and sanitation. Fuel: you either have it or you don’t, and most people won’t/can’t carry an emergency supply large enough to make a significant difference.

Work refuge with no services: Three (3) days self-sufficiency

Assume that the preparedness kit in your vehicle is inaccessible, e.g. the parking garage fell down on your car when the quake hit. How will you get through three days at your place of employment, assuming that movement outside the premises is too hazardous to attempt?

In the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, Red Cross volunteers staffed shelters to assist survivors of that storm

Evacuation to community shelter: Three (3) days self-sufficiency

Relocation to a community shelter is not the end of your worries. (Exhibit A: New Orleans Superdome. Exhibit B: New Orleans Convention Center.) Are you prepared to be self-sufficient within this environment for up to 3 days with minimal/no access to services?

Evacuation from disaster zone: by vehicle

Similar to the refuge in/near vehicle requirement above, but with the added requirements of routing, fuel supply, and so forth. How will you evacuate when the gas stations are closed and/or sold out and the fuel gauge is on ‘E’?

Evacuation from disaster zone: on foot

In dire circumstances, it may be more dangerous to stay in your community than it is to attempt evacuation without the benefit of car. You should have a plan to walk/bike/sled/swim 30 miles over the course of 72 hours to reach safety. This is generally a plan of last resort.

Key planning considerations for your preparedness plan

As you put together your plan for each element in your risk-assessment list, consider how you will address the following needs:

• Environment (heat/AC)
• Electricity
• Water (Stored & portable)
• Nutrition (Stored & portable)
• Food preparation
• Food preservation
• Lighting
• Active communications (cellphone/payphone/radio/Internet)
• Passive communications (radio/TV)
• Entertainment (books/games)
• Clothing
• Transportation
• Shelter (Permanent & portable)
• Medical needs (maintenance medication)
• Medical needs (first-aid/trauma)
• Sanitation (personal hygiene, human wastes, trash/garbage)

Risks, training, and community

Local Red Cross chapters offer basic First Aid, CPR and fFirst responder Training as well as instruction in shelter operations and other fields

In Part 1 of this series, you were asked to consider the risks you face where you live. If you did your homework, you now have a prioritized list of risks that you should plan to address.

In Part 2 of this series, we discussed the psychology of disaster preparedness, and the relationship between FUD (fear, uncertainty and doubt) and effective crisis response. The prescription for avoiding FUD or shock-induced catatonia is simple: training and practice.

In addition to dry-run rehearsals of the preparedness plans you assemble to address your risks, you should plan to rehearse your fire response plan on a regular basis — at least once per year. Pick a holiday which you normally spend at home, and make that “drill day”.

You’ve heard this before, but please listen anyway: every adult should take a combination First Aid/CPR course at least once every 10 years. Yes, you need to take CPR more often to maintain your certification, but at a minimum everyone should take the combo course every 10 years.

In any disaster, community plays a huge role. The time to forge the bonds that hold a community together is not in the aftermath of a disaster. Fortunately, many communities in the US already have programs in place which encourage outreach and relationship-building.

In your correspondent’s experience, the most useful program is CERT, short for Community Emergency Response Team. The CERT program provides a free 16-20 hour training course which covers disaster preparedness, fire suppression, medical operations, light search-and-rescue, and disaster psychology.

Beyond CERT, however, strong community organizations are needed to provide mutual support in a crisis. Many cities with significant disaster risks support and encourage the formation of neighborhood associations. These organizations both raise awareness of the need for preparedness planning and encourage neighbors to get acquainted instead of keeping to themselves.

Urban dwellers, particularly those in high-density housing such as high-rise apartment buildings, are strongly encouraged to reach out to neighbors and openly discuss the need for preparedness.

Scenarios

Scenario 2 – Heat wave

Description: An unrelenting summer heat wave spreads across the Southwest. Daytime temperatures of over 110F are common. The electric power generation and distribution systems, strained by the load, suffer widespread failures.

Scenario profile:
Family separated: NO
Immediate evacuation required: NO
Post-event evacuation required: POSSIBLE
Services interrupted: YES (electricity)
Mean time to restoration of services: 3 days
Period of initial isolation: not applicable
Communications: minimal disruption
Secondary risks: Medical services overwhelmed by heat-related casualties

Requirements for survival:
Environment: YES, daytime environmental cooling
Electricity: YES, food preservation and environmental control
Water (stored): NO
Water (portable): YES, required in case of relocation
Nutrition (stored): YES, fresh food may spoil
Nutrition (portable): YES, required in case of relocation
Food preparation: YES, if kitchen is all-electric
Food preservation: YES
Lighting: YES, but minimal – night-time use only Alternate active communications: NO, phone/cell network functional
Passive communications: YES, need to stay informed
Entertainment: YES, can’t go outside
Clothing: NO
Transportation: YES, in case of relocation or medical emergency
Shelter (permanent): NO
Shelter (portable): NO
Medical needs (maintenance medication): YES, 1-week supply
Medical care (first-aid/trauma): NO
Sanitation: NO

This one is a double whammy — a major heat wave leading to electricity outages. Heat waves are likely to be accompanies by a drought, greatly increasing the risk of fire danger in outlying areas.

One assumes that you will have the sense to stay out of the sun as much as possible during this crisis. Your author is no expert on heat wave survival, so a bit of Googling found this great city-government page titled Drought & Extreme Heat Survival. Here’s what they have to say:

Doing too much on a hot day, spending too much time in the sun, or staying too long in an overheated place can cause heat-related illnesses. To avoid developing these illnesses, learn the symptoms of heat disorders and overexposure to the sun, and be ready to give first aid treatment.

Before the extreme heat:

To keep cool air inside and warm air outside…

• Install air conditioning.
• Insulate around window air conditioners, ducts, and doors. Weatherstrip doors and window sills.
• Consider leaving storm windows up all year. They can help keep heat out during the summer months as well as keeping the cold out in the winter.
• Install reflective film or shades on windows. Outdoor louvers or awnings can reduce the heat entering a house by as much as 80 percent.
• Use fans to keep the cool air circulating.
• Plant deciduous trees around your house that block the heat in summer and let the sun shine through in winter.

During periods of extreme heat:

To avoid the effects of heat waves, observe the following Heat Wave Safety Rules:

• Slow down. Your body can’t do its best in high temperatures and humidities, and might do its worst.
• Heed your body’s early warnings that heat syndrome is on the way. Reduce your level of activity immediately and get to a cooler environment.
• Dress for summer. Lightweight, light colored clothing reflects heat and sunlight, and helps your thermoregulatory system maintain normal body temperature.
• Put less fuel on your inner fires. Foods (like proteins) that increase metabolic heat production also increase water loss.
• Don’t dry out. Heat wave weather can wring you out before you know it. Drink plenty of water while the hot spell lasts.
• Stay salty. Unless you’re on a salt-restricted diet, take an occasional salt tablet or some salt solution when you’ve worked up a sweat.
• Avoid thermal shock. Acclimatize yourself gradually to warmer weather. Treat yourself extra gently for those first critical two or three hot days.
• Vary your thermal environment. Physical stress increases with exposure time in heat wave weather. Try to get out of the heat for at least a few hours each day. If you can’t do this at home, drop in on a cool store, restaurant, or theater – anything to keep your exposure time down.
• Don’t get too much sun. Sunburn makes the job of heat dissipation that much more difficult.

An 1895 New madrid qauke registering 6.8 has far greater impact than a similar 1994 quake in California measuring 6.7

Scenario 3 – Earthquake

Description: A magnitude 7.4 earthquake centered on the Hayward fault (Editor’s Note: Clarksville in within the impact range of the New Madrid fault line) strikes the San Francisco Bay Area at 1630PDT (4:30pm) on a weekday in October. One adult from the household is at work on the Peninsula, 20 miles away, when the quake occurs. The other adult is at home in Fremont. One child is at the elementary school walking distance from the house. The other is at preschool 10 miles from home.

The home suffers minor structural damage, but appears fit to occupy. Bay Area bridges are declared unsafe pending inspection; extensive damage to overpasses and roadway make highway travel hazardous or impossible.

Within 4 hours of the quake, 7,000 Bay Area residents are dead and 27,000 require medical attention. The vast majority of these are in East Bay cities within 5 miles (8 km) of the Hayward Fault. Emergency plans go into effect across California, and within 24 hours, martial law is declared in Fremont, Union City, and Oakland.

Scenario profile:
Family separated: YES, worst-case scenario
Immediate evacuation required: NO
Post-event evacuation required: POSSIBLE
Services interrupted: YES (all municipal services including sewer)
Mean time to restoration of services: 10+ days
Period of initial isolation: 7 days
Communications: wireline phone network down hard; mobile voice network extremely unreliable for outdial, indial impossible; mobile data network mostly functional
Secondary risks: Numerous, and all bad.

Requirements for survival:
Environment: YES, night-time lows of ~45F
Electricity: YES
Water (stored): YES
Water (portable): YES
Nutrition (stored): YES
Nutrition (portable): YES
Food preparation: YES
Food preservation: YES, short-term (until fresh/frozen food consumed)
Lighting: YES, but minimal – night-time use only Alternate active communications: YES
Passive communications: YES, need to stay informed
Entertainment: YES
Clothing: YES, replacements for contaminated/damaged clothes
Transportation: YES, local and/or evac
Shelter (permanent): NO
Shelter (portable): YES
Medical needs (maintenance medication): YES, 2-week supply
Medical care (first-aid/trauma): YES
Sanitation: YES

As the observant reader might gather, this is a scenario your correspondent has listed as a primary risk in his preparedness plan. Unfortunately, the death and injury toll numbers aren’t made up or exaggerated. They’re drawn directly from a FEMA study used in CERT training, and they’re not even the worst-case scenario. What follows isn’t the complete response plan, but enough of it to give you a good understanding.

Earthquake damage in California

After the quake hits, each adult moves immediately to a safe location. If mobile-network voice calling is down (very likely) SMS text messaging is used to notify spouse and out-of-state relatives of event and status. If mobile-network data services are functional, email is sent from mobile devices as a backup to SMS messaging. If mobile network is down hard, proceed immediately to nearest pay phone with phone card and call out-of-state contacts with event and status. (Multiple pay phone locations marked on emergency maps in all preparedness kits.)

Each adult then moves quickly to secure their location and ensure access to disaster supplies. The person at home immediately performs a rapid structural assessment. (Assume that both adults have self-treatable minor injuries, at worst.) If the house looks safe for the moment, homebody executes the following tasks:

• NatGas to OFF (wrench and/or emergency tool in multiple locations)
• Water to OFF at master valve (mandatory) and curbside valve (optional)
• Master power breaker to OFF, individual circuit breakers to OFF
• Pull emergency release on garage door and open manually if possible; move car out of garage into driveway
• Relocate containerized camping gear (incl. clothing duffel), go-packs and bicycles to back yard
• Relocate documents container and firearms to secure location
• Relocate fire extinguishers to back yard
• Relocate ice, frozen and refrigerated goods to 5-day coolers in back yard
• Relocate certain kitchen appliances, canned and dry food supplies from kitchen cupboards to back yard
• Advise contacts of status, and intent to retrieve older child from school
• Retrieve older child from elementary school, return home
• Advise contacts of successful retrieval of older child from school, status of child at preschool (unknown/unretrieved, etc.), advise other adult of any aid needed at school
• Enlist older child in setting up temporary camp, kitchen, sanitation station in back yard

The adult at work on the Peninsula secures the work location and activates the company disaster plan. If the parking structure is intact, relocate vehicle to secure location. For safety and security reasons, travel is deferred until at least 0100PDT/day2. “Combat nap” time after setting up overnight watch schedule. Relocate to Fremont, taking at least one other Fremont-bound employee as a passenger. Note: do not issue firearms to unqualified passengers. Drop passenger at safe point near destination, review emergency-contact procedures in case retrieval is required.

Three of four family members rendezvous at home by 0400PDT/day2. “Combat naps” for adults. Refuel vehicle from emergency reserve, assess situation in Fremont using all available info sources, plan retrieval of fourth family member to start at first light (0630PDT/day2). Execute retrieval op, verify that disaster plan is being executed correctly at preschool for remaining kids. Provide first aid as needed, leave emergency food/water supplies if required. Return to home.

I’m going to truncate the explanation of this plan at this point, as it then goes into plenty more detail not necessarily useful to this conversation, such as CERT operations and camp management.

Chance favors the prepared mind. – Louis Pasteur

In any given disaster situation, you will find a group of people who maximize their chances for survival by making the correct choices before, during, and after the crisis. These folks have a few things in common:

• Each of them personally decided that he/she was going to survive
• They accurately assessed their immediate and near-term risks and needs
• They made the best plan they could based on available resources
• They executed that plan in a flexible, adaptive manner
• They kept going until they had reached safety, and did not give up

The single most important thing you can do to survive a disaster is to be mentally prepared.

Being prepared for disaster does not have to be time-consuming or expensive. In this multi-part series of DailyKos Diaries, I will share with you, dear reader, many of the lessons I’ve learned regarding the most effective ways to prepare for an emergency.

This is the second installment in a multi-part series on personal disaster preparedness. Your humble correspondent is a Silicon Valley technical executive with both professional and personal experience in risk assessment and disaster-readiness planning.

WARNING: This Diary series discusses a wide range of disaster-related subjects in a straightforward, honest fashion. Some people may experience a strong emotional reaction to reading about or discussing situations which are normally avoided in polite conversation. You have been warned.

When disaster strikes, will you be prepared?

In this installment, we will discuss step 2, planning to address risks. This topic will be continued in tomorrow’s installment.

Red Cross booklets, pamphlets and training are excellent starting points for your disaster planning

People react in interesting ways when faced with emergency situations. When faced with a life-threatening situation, a great many people will simply freeze, unable to process events effectively and respond appropriately. A person who reacts in this manner may attempt to continue normal life at great risk to themselves and others, or may simply subside into shock and denial.

Another significantly large group will react by making a reasonable effort at ensuring their own survival and helping others, but may not be terribly effective at either. In many cases, these folks may take actions which increase risk to themselves and others. A significant percentage of this second group will, depending on the severity and duration of the emergency, go into shock and denial. In a group situation, good leadership can keep this to a minimum.

All the cool kids, though, fall into a third category. Whether by training or innate nature, members of this group are mentally prepared to overcome the challenges at hand. They have decided that dammit, they’re not going to give up and die, and that’s final.

Making the decision that you, personally, are going to survive makes all the difference in the world. How will YOU react?

Now, dear reader, you may think upon your fears and insecurities, and fret that you will surely react like the people in that middle group, blundering about making (potentially deadly) mistakes. Or, horror of horrors, you may even freeze up under stress and fail to cope with the situation at all. These are normal reactions, but they are not helpful in a disaster situation, to put it mildly.

So how do you avoid joining the ranks of the ineffective masses, waiting passively for help? It comes down to minimizing FUD — Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt. If you have a solid basic emergency plan, you are well on your way to avoiding paralysis due to FUD. Like the smart man said, chance favors the prepared mind.

The principal means, however, of getting FUD under control and improving the chances that you’ll respond effectively in an emergency is simple: practice, practice, practice. Until you have actually attempted to execute a plan which looks good on paper, you have no guarantees that the plan works or that you will be ready to use it. A critical part of any preparedness program is periodic review and practice of your survival-critical plans.

Review point: Risk-assessment homework

The starting point for avoiding FUD is to think through as many problems as you can in advance of needing to deal with them. In Part 1 of 3 – Assess your risks! I gave you a homework assignment:

Your mission, should you choose to accept it, is to make a list of as many disaster risks as you can think of. Get your significant other and/or your kids involved, and make it a competitive event. Be lenient, at first, when considering whether something is a likely risk. Be sure to include all of the places where you might find yourself when disaster strikes — home, work, school, church, shopping, and so forth. Don’t consider the list closed until you’ve visited each of these places and looked, with a critical eye, at the risks we all ignore on a daily basis.

If you haven’t done your homework, please review the previous Diary in this series and make your list now. It is important for you, dear reader, to have a clear assessment of your risks in mind as you consider the material presented below. You simply will not get as much out of this if you do not already have a reasonably good understanding of the scenarios you are likely to face.

Now that you’ve put together your list of likely emergency situations, take another look at it. Have you included mundane, everyday disasters such as a house or apartment fire? Here is an example, as told to me by a professional firefighter, of how failure to plan effectively for a common house fire made a huge difference in the outcome:

Ice storms, not blizzards, are more likely to pose problems in Middle Tennessee

Late one fall afternoon, a San Francisco Bay Area house burned to the ground. The occupants of the house escaped without injury, and when questioned by the fire chief knew exactly where and how the fire started. The family, to the perplexity of the fire chief and the inspector, stated that they had been unable to halt the spread of the fire despite having four Kidde home fire extinguishers on hand.

After the house had cooled off enough for the inspection team to enter, they found the origin of the fire to be exactly as it had been described to them. In the immediate vicinity of the origin point, they found four half-melted, unused fire extinguishers. Upon further inspection, they found the safety pins for said fire extinguishers in an area about ten feet back from the fire origin.

It turns out that the homeowners had pulled the pin on each fire extinguisher and lobbed it grenade-style into the vicinity of the fire. Unsurprisingly, this was not an effective means of halting the spread of the fire, which would have been easily controlled by a single correctly used fire extinguisher.

After you stop laughing, consider this: that family’s failure to read and understand the usage instructions on the fire extinguishers led them to respond ineffectively, costing them their house. They understood the risk of fire, but did not have an effective plan for dealing with the situation. The lesson here is that you can’t buy preparedness — you must be equipped to determine the correct action to take in a given situation, and it helps an awful lot if you get things figured out before you find yourself under stress, lobbing fire extinguishers like grenades and wondering why they’re not working.

The American Red Cross (ARC) Get Prepared pages are an excellent resource for sanity-checking your list of risks. In addition, the ARC pages provide valuable reference material to use when you are ready to move on to phase 3, prepare.

Prioritize your risks

Now that you have a reasonably complete compilation of hazards you might expect to face, it’s time to triage your list. Be realistic. The actual chance of a nuclear device detonating within the borders of the US is vanishingly small, whereas there’s a 62% probability of an earthquake strong enough to cause widespread damage to the San Francisco Bay Area between now and 2032.

“But AlphaGeek, I thought we were going to make a plan!”

Yes, Grasshopper, we are indeed here to get our collective act together by formulating a realistic, workable preparedness plan. Silly as it may sound, everything leading up to this point has been to get you prepared to get prepared. If you have read and thoughtfully considered the material presented so far, it’s guaranteed that you are not approaching this task the same way you would have last week.

Here are the key steps to developing and maintaining an effective plan:

• Develop your plans, seeking the input of everyone involved
• Review your plan against publicly availble resources, such as the American Red Cross (ARC) Get Prepared website
• Test each section of your plan by conducting a full-family drill
• Revisit your plan as your circumstances change

Regardless of the specific risks one might need to address, there are actually a limited number of general situations to plan for. We will discuss each of these in detail below.

While we yet draw breath, let us do all we can to see another day.

Your top priority in an emergency is to ensure your own safety. If you are seriously injured or incapacitated, you are out of action for the duration and will not be helping anyone.

A perfect example of this is a loss of cabin pressure on an airplane, which will cause the emergency oxygen masks to drop down. At high altitude, you will have 20 seconds or less to begin taking in supplemental oxygen before you pass out. It will take the typical person between 5 and 10 seconds to get over their startlement at the loud bang and sudden appearance of the masks, and realize that they do in fact need to take action immediately. If you spend that 10-15 seconds trying to put a mask on a panicky toddler, you’re never going to get your own mask on in time. By being mentally prepared, you can suppress your instinct to take care of your child first and thereby ensure survival for both of you.

For the purposes of this discussion, I will assume that that we need to develop a comprehensive disaster plan for a household with two adults, two school-age children, and a dog. At least one of the adults in this household works outside the home, with a commute of 20 miles. The household is located in a suburb or exurb of a major metropolitan area.

Think about what could go wrong, and plan to survive anyway

In the following example scenarios, we will focus on what you need to plan for, rather than the specific materials you’ll need to carry out your plan. Part 4 of this series will go into excruciating detail on all those sexy material goods — but in case it isn’t clear by now, having a good plan is far more important than buying a bunch of stuff. Plan first, then buy what you need to support your plan.

Scenario 1 – Severe Winter Storms

In Middle Tennessee, ice storms are more likelt than snowstorms to disrupt power and trigger emergency action

Description: A series of severe winter storms tear through the region, knocking out power to hundreds of thousands and disrupting rail and highway access. Retail availability of food and water supplies ranges from limited to nonexistent by day 4.

Scenario profile:
Family separated: NO
Immediate evacuation required: NO
Post-event evacuation required: Low probability
Services interrupted: YES (electricity, retail goods)
Mean time to restoration of services: 10 days
Period of initial isolation: 5 days
Communications: possible disruption of phone, cable TV service
Secondary risks: Structural damage or failure due to snow/ice load

Hudson's bay Point Blankets (LLBean) are top of the line in warmth, but anything from a quilt to long underwear and lots of layerswill keep you warm

Requirements for survival:

Environment: YES – heat
Electricity: YES – charge batteries, run small TV
Water: NO – water service uninterrupted
Nutrition: YES
Food preparation: YES
Lighting: YES
Passive communications: YES
Entertainment: YES
Active communications: Medical emergency only
Food preservation: NO – +20F outside = back-patio freezer
Clothing: NO
Transportation: NO
Shelter: NO – but see note on emergency repairs below

Whether you live on the Gulf Coast hurricane-impact zone, or in a northern state subject to severe winter storms, weather can present a serious threat to your safety. Humans are relatively sensitive to heat and cold outside a fairly narrow range, and few people realize how much energy Western society devotes to keeping us in our comfort zone.

In this scenario, you nearly always have the benefit of sufficient advance warning to get your family safely home before things get ugly. The safest course of action in this situation is to hunker down and make the best of things in the safety of your home.

When it’s 20F or less outside, even a well-insulated home will cool off quickly if the central heating system goes offline. As a commenter observed in the discussion of Part 1, gas-fired central heat doesn’t do you a whole lot of good if the blower and control electronics don’t have power. Be prepared to provide adequate heat to at least one room in your house. Consider consolidating everyone into one or two rooms with heat source(s) and closing off the rest of the house.

The tools and materials to make emergency repairs to your shelter are critical in this situation. When it’s pounding down freezing rain outside, night is coming, and the wind is whistling through a broken window, you will not have the option of waiting for the handyman. Have a plan for repairing broken windows and/or doors, and assume that you will not have the use of power tools.

Electricity. Americans are addicted to it, your correspondent included. Most people immediately think “generator” when the topic of emergency electric power comes up. The fact is, you already have a generator parked in your garage. Your family car, coupled with a modestly sized DC-to-AC inverter, is capable of supplying enough power to make a huge difference in your standard of living while grid power is offline. Generators and DC-AC inverters will be discussed in detail in Part 4.

Water supply is generally not an issue in cold-weather states, as the water delivery system is designed to survive severe weather. Appropriate weatherproofing techniques should be implemented to prevent frozen and/or burst pipes, especially if central heating is offline.

Sanitation goes hand-in-hand with water pressure. In my experience, the biggest sanitation-related danger in this scenario is having your butt freeze to the toilet seat.

Nutrition is of primary concern, especially considering that people require higher caloric intake when it’s cold. You should have a two-week supply of food on hand, excluding fresh and frozen foods. (Remember, we’re not just preparing for wintertime disasters!)

For our hypothetical family with two kids, lighting (for reading and other activities) and passive entertainment (radio, TV, etc.) are important for the survival of the children. Anyone who’s been cooped up with two kids in a house for five days straight will attest that they were ready to kill them by the time it was over.

Snow and ice present the special problem of structural damage or failure due to overload. If necessary, take steps to reduce or prevent severe buildup.

Before the storm, make sure you have supply of your family's prescription medications on hand

Finally, on the topic of medical emergencies: it’s not unusual, when the Big Storm of the season is coming, to bring Grandma over to stay with you for the duration. Make sure Grandma (and you) get refills on all of those prescription medications, if possible, before you settle in. Be sure you’re up-to-date on her medical conditions, and take particular care to ensure that she gets good nutrition and stays warm for the duration.

If you have a plan to deal with each of the ’survival needs’ categories listed above, your biggest risks will be boredom, house fires, and asphyxiation. (Wait a minute — did he just say that?)

Yes, that’s right — you must be very, very careful in your use of combustion for heat, cooking, and/or light. Candles and oil lamps, handy as they are, do start thousands of fires every year. Likewise, attempting to improvise an indoor heat source using charcoal is a quick way to asphyxiation.

End of scenario 1

TO BE CONTINUED TOMORROW:

Phase 2 of preparedness continued. Discussion of the role community plays in disaster preparedness, and a whole shedload of scenarios to pore over.

Something bad is going to happen, and there’s nothing you can do to stop it.

Preparing to deal with a disaster is like going off of a ski jump. If you put off your planning until things start happening, it’s far too late to make much of a difference. Once you’re headed down that ski jump, the time for planning and preparation is over.

On the other hand, being prepared for disaster does not have to be time-consuming or expensive. In this multi-part series of DailyKos Diaries, I will share with you, dear reader, many of the lessons I’ve learned regarding the most effective ways to prepare for an emergency.

This is the first installment in a multi-part series on personal disaster preparedness. Your humble correspondent is a Silicon Valley technical executive with both professional and personal experience in risk assessment and disaster-readiness planning. Links to reference materials, including planning guides and reference information, will be found at the end of the final Diaries in this series.

Tornados pose a constant threat to Middle Tennessee

Series Index: Are YOU ready for disaster?

1. Assess your risks!
2. Plan to survive! (part A)
3. Plan to survive! (part B)
4. Emergency gear and supplies
5. Material preparations continued; Conclusion

When disaster strikes, will you be prepared?

Despite what you may have gathered from reading guides to readiness from the government, the Red Cross, or other organizations, you should not begin with a spending spree at the local hardware store. When you strip away all of the bureaucrat-speak, there are three basic steps you must follow to be ready for disaster:

1. Assess
2. Plan
3. Prepare

In this installment, we will discuss step 1, assessment of risks.

The psychology of disaster preparedness

In order to effectively prepare for disaster without becoming overwhelmed, you must be able to make realistic judgments about risks. On one hand, it is an effort for most people to “think the unthinkable”, to contemplate scenarios which are far outside the routine of their daily lives. It is difficult for most people to imagine a world where fresh water does not flow from the taps, electricity is something you can’t take for granted, and the grocery store shelves are empty… assuming the stores are even open.

On the other hand, there’s a phenomenon I think of as the “armageddon fallacy”. This is the temptation, once that our Pandora’s Box of fears and concerns has been opened, to imagine extremely unlikely events as real threats. We must be cautious to exercise good judgment when considering risks, as the “armageddon fallacy” is a surprisingly easy trap to fall into. Keep in mind that your plan, at some point, will be shared with friends and family. This incents most people to stay clear of the Crazy Talk Express to Armageddon Town when making a plan.

Assessing your risks: take a look around

Each city, state, and region of the country has its own unique set of risks. For example, your humble correspondent’s home in Fremont, California is unlikely to be threatened by a hurricane — but that home is only a few miles from the Hayward Fault, and surprisingly, is in a “dam failure inundation area”. Many homes in America are subject to hidden or unseen dangers such as this; in the Southwest, for example, the dangers of flash floods in an otherwise arid environment are well known, yet people die (surprised, in many cases) in flash floods every year. (Editor’s Note: Clarksville lies in the flood zone for a potential failure of Kentucky’s Wolf Creek Dam).

Your first task in building a disaster-readiness plan is to assess the risks particular to the areas where you spend significant time. In America’s car-centric suburban culture, many people work 20 miles or more from their home. The risks at work and at home may differ considerably, and should be assessed separately.

Here is a brief listing of risk categories you may find useful in putting together your list of potential emergencies in your area:

• Domestic risks (house fire, carbon monoxide, medical emergency)
• Industrial accident risk (refineries, chemical plants, rail lines transporting hazardous cargo such as liquified chlorine)
• Natural disasters (heat waves, forest/grassland fires, earthquakes, floods, tornadoes, hurricanes, tsunamis)
• Secondary disaster risk due to primary natural disaster (e.g. the reservoir dam which may fail in an earthquake and flood Fremont)
• Civil disturbance (riots, terrorist attacks, acts of war)

These risks are listed in the order in which you should consider them. Please note the “civil disturbance” category is last — this is because one of the principal goals of any disaster plan should be to minimize your exposure to civil-disturbance risks. The next installment of this series will discuss the use of risk-avoidance strategies in detail.

A good source for risk information is your city or state Office Of Emergency Services website, or its equivalent. Other good sources for detailed risk information include the following local resources:

• building permit authority
• fire department
• police department and/or sheriff’s office

There exists one more category of risk which you must consider: risks to your freedom of movement. As you go about your business for the next week, consider the following:

• Do you know of any alternate routes between work and home?
• Does your primary route include bridges or tunnels
• Does your primary route pass under any high-voltage power lines?
• Do you regularly drive past refineries, chemical plants, or rail lines carrying tank cars?
• Does your neighborhood have above- or below-ground power distribution?
• If you need to leave your city or region, how many routes can you think of without consulting a map?
• Do you have reasonably current paper map of your region in each of your family vehicles?

Homework time!

Your mission, should you choose to accept it, is to make a list of as many disaster risks as you can think of. Get your significant other or your kids involved, and make it a competitive event. Be lenient, at first, when considering whether something is a likely risk. Be sure to include all of the places where you might find yourself when disaster strikes — home, work, school, church, shopping, and so forth. Don’t consider the list closed until you’ve visited each of these places and looked, with a critical eye, at the risks we all ignore on a daily basis.

NEXT TIME: Phase 2 of increasing your preparedness: put together a plan for dealing with the risks you consider likely in your locale.

Update [2005-9-9 16:50:27 by AlphaGeek]: By popular demand, expanded the not-intended-to-be-comprehensive list of natural disasters. Added heat wave, forest/grassland fires, and tsunamis.

Red Cross Executive Director Linda McCoy, Health and Safety Director Patricia Brown, and Emergency Services Director Cecil Stout stand before the charred ruin of the emergency response vehicle.

Since the rejection of the request must still come before the council in executive session, tonight Red Cross Executive Director Linda McCoy, Emergency Response Director Cecil Stout, and Logistics expert Mike Vogt will offer a presentation to councilors on the need for this vehicle and the impact its loss has had on the agency’s ability to effectively respond in its service area.

“My hope is that the council will listen [to the Red Cross] and vote to approve this measure,” Doyle said. “I am asking the council to approve $80,000 for the acquisition of an [emergency response vehicle].”

Doyle also intends to ask the county government for assistance in acquiring this vehicle, but was not optimistic since the “county is in worse shape than we are.”

In the interim, dozens of Red Cross volunteers have stocked their own vehicles with supplies needed to respond to emergencies of all kinds across Montgomery, Houston, Stewart counties, Fort Campbell and the Land Between the Lakes area. Red Cross volunteers pay their own gas expenses in addition to their their generous donation of time when disaster strikes.

The charred interior of the Red Cross ERV

The need for the vehicle was brought home several weeks ago when four tornadoes hit the Clarksville area at midnight, cutting power to a larger part of the city including the Red Cross office. Staff and volunteers fumbled in the dark for enough additional supplies to stock their cars and get the scenes of disaster. Nonetheless, these dedicated volunteers managed to provide more than 100 meals by morning, and rallied to provide services to storm victims. Perhaps the most striking statistic from the recent storm response was a staggering 4,248 volunteer (as in no pay) hours and a breathtaking 13,600 miles of travel (at $3.00 plus a gallon for gas, primarily donated by the volunteers service volunteers for their own vehicles).

As an example of what the Red Cross provides, in the aftermath of the May 5 tornado outbreak, the Red Cross
was requested by EMA to staff the EOC and prepare for Mass Care/Sheltering operation in the Indian Mounds area of Montgomery County. (Woodland Fire Station as temp shelter).

“We activated Gov Liaison Glenda Brown and activated DAT #1 Mike Vogt with three members, deploying with DRV with tarps and food. Staffing of essential personnel was started. At 21:00 Houston County EMA requested Mass Care/Sheltering operations for the Dansville area of Houston County. ( Southernair motel as temporary shelter). We deployed Houston County DAT Stephanie White with two members and county DRV with food and tarps. This was the commencement of our activities for the next few days. We would continue operations for the next 18 days in one form or another.” — Cecil Stout

Stout provided the following fact and figures of the Red Cross accomplishments:

• Performed Disaster Assessments for 154 effected residents in a three county area.
• Opened 13 cases providing financial assistance to 31 individuals.
• Provided basic first aid for 11 individuals.
• Visited three individuals at hospital.
• Provided mental health assistance for 4 individuals.
• Preformed Welfare Inquiries for three special needs persons.
• Registered 27 individuals on Safe and Well, Web based locater service.
• Referred 53 families to other agencies for assistance (to include local and FEMA).
• Provided 2 sessions where 34 individual volunteers were trained for this response.
• Recruited 59 volunteers who served locally.
• Deployed one DSHR volunteer to serve at the national level.
• Accounted for 4248 volunteer hours in 18 days of operations.
• Operated four mobile feeding units.
• Traveled 13600 miles of authorized travel.
• Served 4250 meals or snacks, 5230 bottles of water and 720 cups of coffee.Distributed 70 tarps, 37 comfort and 4 clean-up kits to those in need.
• Opened two temporary (trailers) service centers.Committed $10,418.00 in relief funds.

The council meets in executive session this afternoon at 4:30 in the city hall conference room at Public Square.

It’s a thought that is holding true in middle Tennessee, which saw a mix of bone-chilling cold, snow, icy and icy rain — and a snow day for school age children — just last week. With those winter storms still fresh in our minds, we will be shedding our winter gear today as temperatures climb into the 70s by midday, and a summery dewpoint of 60+ is forecast. Tornadoes may on the agenda as well. Supercells for Super Tuesday.

As voters mass to the polls to cast votes in the state’s presidential primary, one of 24 primaries held nationwide today, clouds will be massing to the west, ready to roll through faster than bus on the campaign trail.

The National Weather Service has issued a special weather statement for an area including western and middle Tennessee through Tuesday night that calls for high winds, wind shear, and a fast moving cold front that “will be favorable for supercell tornadoes to form during the evening.” That cold front is expected to hit the Mississippi River by midnight, will push potentially severe storms well ahead of the actual front. Which means that late day voters should keep an eye on the sky. An an ear tuned to possible tornado sirens.

As the front rolls through during the overnight hours, the potential for thunderstorms, hail and damaging winds will continue, reaching the Cumberland Plateau by daybreak.

The NWS urges people to be aware of the potential for storms throughout the day, but especially by evening and through the overnight hours.

If you have not reviewed your storm plans, this early jump into tornado season is just the time to do it.

According to the American Red Cross, your emergency kit should have the following items: flashlight w/extra batteries, battery powered radio, non-perishable food for up to three days (including canned juices, bottled water and high energy snacks) extra medication in water proof container or bag basic first aid supplies or first aid kit, a non-electric can opener, emergency space blanket, personal hygiene items, trash bags (which can be used for sanitation or even as disposable rain gear), a change of clothing and footwear with closed toes, paper cups and plates, and other individualized needs [I have a folding cane in my kit).

Though I am more accustomed to preparing for power outages in blizzard conditions, with emphasis on wood for the woodburning stove, thawing frozen water pipes, and staying warm in general, I have adapted to these southern storms. I always prepare for such potential storm scenarios by wearing closed toe footwear -- sneakers, boots -- which will protect my feet if I need to wade through debris or water, as I did a few years ago when a friend's neighborhood was flooded by feet of post hurricane deluge. Wading through knee deep water in the dark and the rain required protective footwear.]

Families should also create and practice a disaster plan that includes pre-determining a place for all family members to gather if necessary. Families should designate a place outside the home but in the neighborhood, and also select a place or contact point outside their area in the event of wide scale disaster or widespread storm damage. Teach children emergency contact numbers, since not everyone may be at home if and when disaster strikes.

Disaster training and information, and emergencies first aid kits and other supplies are available through your local Red Cross Chapter.