Dreaming the future can create the future. We stand at the threshold of a singular opportunity in the human experiment: To re-imagine how to live on Earth in ways that honor the web of life, each other and future generations. It’s a revolution from the heart of nature — and the human heart. Then again, in the immortal words of Yogi Berra, “The future ain’t what it used to be.” We also stand at the brink of worldwide ecological and civilizational collapse. We face a reckoning from the treacherous breach in our relationship with nature.

Future Scenarios by David Holmgren, author of Permaculture, Principles and Pathways Beyond Sustainability

FutureScenarios.org presents an integrated approach to understanding the potential interaction between Climate Change and Peak Oil using a scenario planning model. In the process I introduce permaculture as a design system specifically evolved over the last 30 years to creatively respond to futures that involve progressively less and less available energy.

This exploration of energy descent scenarios has been an organic one which began with a didactic intention to highlight how large scale energetic and environmental factors shape history more than ideologies and the heroic actions of individuals. But my purpose was to empower those committed to ecological values and social justice to be effective in their quest to create the world we want, rather than just resist the world we don’t want.

Let us act as if we are part of nature’s striving for the next evolutionary way to creatively respond to the recurring cycles of energy ascent and descent that characterize human history and the more ancient history of Gaia, the living planet. Imagine that our descendants and our ancestors are watching us.

Earth 2100

ABC is producing a special about the earth’s future to air next September and is inviting anyone to submit a 3 minute video about what you think the world will be like in 2015, 2050, and 2100. See trailers and film clips already submitted at http://earth2100.tv/

WASHINGTON, D.C.: The ongoing economic crisis, volatile energy prices, and the rapid increase in global CO2 levels will force critical choices on climate action by the new President in the early days of the next administration, according to a report released today by Clean Air-Cool Planet (CA-CP), an independent organization dedicated to finding and promoting solutions to global warming.

“The next president can lead America and the world in addressing climate change if he links our effort to reduce emissions to the revitalization of our economy and the creation of a more secure energy future.” ~~ Rafe Pomerance, CA-CP’s president.

To advance a new strategy, the report recommends 25 early steps through which the incoming President can establish clear priorities for his administration, build a consensus for legislation in Congress, and inspire the public and private sector to action to reduce the threat of climate change.    “Building a Foundation for Success:  Recommendations for Early Action on Climate Change for the 44th President of the United States” outlines a focused set of actions that can be accomplished within 150 days of taking office, as opposed to prescribing long-term policy outcomes. The actions include organizational steps, administrative and diplomatic initiatives and early approaches with Congress.  Taking account of the changed political situation resulting from high-energy prices and the turbulence in financial markets, CA-CP also proposes a new, auction-based approach to cap and trade legislation that will return 80 percent of the auction revenues to the public through tax reductions.

“The next President will have the opportunity to establish American leadership on climate change with a robust new strategy, but to be successful will require taking early action in a number of areas, including White House organization and the administration’s initial budget proposal,” said Brooks Yeager, executive vice president for policy at CA-CP. “The first steps in crafting a more successful approach have to be taken during the transition and the first 100 days of the administration – and they must lay the foundation for a comprehensive approach which builds a new consensus for action on this critically important issue.”

CA-CP identifies seven broad climate change goals for the upcoming presidential transition:

1. Pick the right team to carry the initiative;
2. Reallocate budget resources, to make climate change a priority;
3. Legislate for economy-wide emissions reductions;
4. Aggressive research and development for low-carbon energy technology;
5. Federal planning for adaptation to climate change impacts;
6. Enable and encourage citizens to build efficiency and conservation in their homes and communities;
7. Re-engage cooperation with international partners.

The recommendations draw on interviews with more than 40 professionals experienced in presidential transitions, senior White House officials and Executive Branch staff from Republican and Democratic administrations, economists and climate change experts.  The agenda is derived out of the concerns of New Hampshire citizens, expressed at the grassroots level and in town meetings during the 2007 primary season.

“In 1961, President Kennedy began the Space Race with the intent to land a man on the moon within the decade. His powerful speeches and leadership were the driving forces in diminishing public skepticism and making a lunar landing a reality,” said Rafe Pomerance, CA-CP’s president, “In a similar way, the next president should inspire citizen engagement on climate action in communities all though America by stressing the moral importance of action, and the growth of clean energy jobs and investments in the future as tools for economic revitalization.”

A link to the entire report and executive summary is online at http://www.cleanair-coolplanet.org/cpc/PLI_report.php

Summary of Early-Action Recommendations by CA-CP

Picking the right team to carry the initiative: The central issue for the next President is how to organize the
Administration’s core team, starting with White House staff, to help him carry out a climate agenda. The President should:

• Establish a transition team focused on climate policy before Inauguration Day.
• Create a National Energy and Climate Council in the White House to ensure a central, empowered entity that reports directly to the President.
• Designate a Special Envoy on Climate Change to undertake initial high-level international contacts.
• Put critical sub-Cabinet positions on the fast track for nomination and confirmation.

Reallocation of budget priorities: The President’s budget proposal for FY2010 is the first key policy opportunity to make climate change a priority. The President should:

• Identify climate change as an early budget priority.
• Include a climate change rebate in the budget of $80 billion annually over 10 years, derived from future carbon auction revenues.
• Expand capacity at key agencies and provide at least $400-500 million to make a new climate strategy operational.
• Increase funding for the Climate Change Science Program from $1.8 billion to $2.1 billion, and to $3 billion byFY2013.
• Increase funding for the Climate Change Technology Program from $3.7 billion to $6 billion, and to $13 billion by FY2015.

Legislation for economy-wide emissions reductions:  New legislation to limit emissions of greenhouse gases is an essential policy step. The President should:

• Articulate principles for Congressional action that include long-term emissions reductions linked to the goal for global emissions reductions of 50% by 2050, and which establish a program with auctioned permits that returns 80% of revenue from the auction process to the American public.
• Establish a White House-Congressional bipartisan working group to shape legislation.

Aggressive research and development for low-carbon energy technology: While currently available technologies can do much to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, new breakthroughs will be needed for the long term. The President should:

• Establish and empower the Advanced Research Projects Administration for Energy (ARPA-E) to embrace a risk-taking culture and a focus on game-changing technology.
• Fully fund ARPA-E start up in a separate funding line in the DOE budget at $150 million in FY2010.

Federal planning for adaptation to climate change impacts: The reality of climate change at the local level is placing a new priority on helping Americans understand and adapt to its impacts. The President should:

• Issue an Executive Order requiring all federal agencies to report on the potential impacts of climate change on their areas of responsibility.
• Increase investment in regional climate change assessments and update regional scientific assessments on vulnerability.
• Restore the “Mission to Planet Earth” as a NASA priority and invest in our capacity to monitor the changing  climate.
• Direct the Secretaries of Commerce, Interior and the EPA Administrator to provide needed information on climate change impacts to the American public through an initial pilot project on water resources.

Enable and encourage citizens to build efficiency and conservation in their Homes and Communities: The next President has the opportunity to mobilize the American public to be more energy efficient in their homes and communities, the most effective strategy for cutting energy bills and greenhouse gas emissions. The President should:

• Initiate a national effort to retrofit half of America’s homes and buildings by 2020 with average energy savings of 30%.
• Support a fundamental change in electric utility rules that creates incentives for electric utility companies to help building owners save energy.
• Call for the establishment of local energy committees across the United States, and direct EPA and DOE to assist local efforts to increase efficiency with information and technical support.

Re-engage cooperation with international partners: Climate change cannot be solved without U.S. leadership for a global response that engages key countries. The President should:

• Direct the Special Envoy on Climate Change to consult with key nations.
• Declare a change in U.S. policy, the centerpiece of which is the commitment to enact a mandatory domestic  emissions reduction program.
• Act early to engage developing countries through bilateral and collective efforts to reduce emissions.
• Initiate or expand practical emissions reductions efforts in which other nations can participate, such as the Methane to Markets Partnership and a cooperative effort to reduce short-lived climate forcing pollutants in the Arctic.
• Fully engage in the U.N.-based international negotiating process.

Clean Air — Cool Action notes that as president, Barack Obama “will have the opportunity and responsibility of establishing American leadership on climate change with a robust new strategy.” The organization cited the scale and complexity of the climate issue as unprecedented and one that will require a renewed focus on the interconnection between the economy, national security and the environment. This report outlines 25 early-action recommendations through which the new administration can lay the foundations for success in addressing climate change at both the domestic and international levels.”

” In recent months we have seen more reports on the vast loss of Arctic sea ice in the summer; increased melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet presaging an accelerated level of sea-level rise; the rate of buildup of absorption capacity of the globe’s oceanic and terrestrial carbon sinks; the increased acidification of the oceans caused by already-absorbed CO2 threatening oceanic life; and temperature-driven pest outbreaks threatening forests throughout North America. These trends can only be expected to accelerate unless decisive action is taken soon.”

The Presidential transition presents a unique opportunity to craft a new, more successful approach to the climate issue, and to break the gridlock that has so far prevented the U.S. from helping to lead the international effort to avert disastrous climate change. Successfully seizing this opportunity will require a policy approach that meets the scale of the climate challenge while being economically sound, responding to the realities of higher energy prices and acknowledging the impacts of the ongoing crisis in our financial markets.  Clean Air-Cool Planet offers this report in the belief that a well-thought out program of early actions will help the next administration successfully address this most important challenge.

More information is available online at http://www.cleanair-coolplanet.org/cpc/PLI_report.php

I explore below paths that might, if followed, lead out of the chaos of an open-ended climatic disruption. Unfortunately the issues are complicated, the time for action is now late, and effective action is growing more difficult daily. Effective action is possible, however….

The changes in climate are far more serious than they may appear…. These changes, the warming of the higher latitudes, the destruction of forests, the accelerated decay of organic matter in forests and tundra soils, the melting of permafrost, the change from a reflective frozen white to black open water in the Arctic Ocean, and the warming of the surface water of the oceans all point to an acceleration of the warming trend. These are “positive feedbacks” which dominate as the earth warms and accelerate the disruption. Despite their importance, they have not been included in appraisals that suggest that a two degree average change in the temperature of the earth might be acceptable. The fact is that the feedbacks will almost certainly take the disruption beyond human control well before the temperature rise is two degrees C. Stopping at 2 degrees will not be possible.

Worse, there is now a common suggestion that a two-degree change – one-degree more than that at present — in the temperature of the earth would be acceptable and might be achieved by an 80% reduction in emissions of fossil fuels by 2040 or 2050. A two-degree change in the average temperature of the earth would be 4-6 degrees or more in higher latitudes, a catastrophic warming that would risk the mobilization of massive stores of carbon in forests and soils of the north, and a further release of methane as permafrost thaws and coastal waters warm. The positive feedbacks would own the earth and the warming would be beyond human control. Such assertions such as the two-degrees assumption are the ultimate in fallacy despite their popularity. An 80% reduction in emissions must be a much earlier objective. If it were set for 2012 it might be effective in avoiding run-away feedbacks.

It is clear that continuing on the present course of accelerated use of fossil fuels will lead to an open-ended climatic catastrophe whose earliest effects are underway now and accumulating in number and severity. These changes will inevitably produce a new, progressively impoverished world, a chaos that no one wants.

The era of fossil fuels must end abruptly. The immediate challenge for the first years of a responsible United States administration is clear leadership, first, in stabilizing the atmospheric burden of heat trapping gases in preparation for a major global program of reduction toward 350 ppm carbon dioxide or less.

Stabilization globally can in fact be achieved through reducing the use of fossil fuels combined with management of land to favor forests. No other action offers short term corrections in the range of billions of tons of carbon. One combination of actions that would meet the need would require:

• Preserving all remaining primary forests globally, worth about 1.5 billion tons of carbon
• Reforestation of 1-2 million square kilometers of abandoned or impoverished land,1.0 -1.5 billion tons per year
• An immediate global reduction in the emissions through use of fossil fuels of 25% of the current 8.5 billion tons about 2.1 billion tons per year.

The important step at the moment is to realize that the emergency exists, requires immediate stabilization of the atmosphere, and that the stabilization is possible. While such steps seem at this late date heroic, they are small relative to the chaos assured if we continue to fail to take them.

From awkward facts at http://www.whrc.org/resources

Worsening Amazon deforestation embarrasses Brazil’s government

June 3 — Alarming new figures showing worsening deforestation in the Amazon have embarrassed Brazil’s government, which is accused of making concessions to the powerful food producer lobby.

Brazil’s National Space Research Institute, which uses satellites to calculate how much of the vast rainforest has been destroyed, this week announced that another 1,132 square kilometers (437 square miles) had been cut or burned down, based on April imagery.

A Greenpeace representative in Brazil, Sergio Leitao, told AFP that the April data were “extremely worrying.”

Brazil’s new environment minister, Carlos Minc, acknowledged that “the deforestation this year will be greater than that of last year.” He blamed high world prices for soya and beef — two major Brazilian exports — for the increased clearing of the Amazon by farmers.

http://www.terradaily.com/2007/080603201344.selg893l.html

About Dr. Woodwell

Dr. Woodwell is an ecologist with broad interests in global environmental issues and policies. Prior to founding the Woods Hole Research Center, he was founder and director of the Ecosystems Center of the Marine Biological Laboratory in Woods Hole and a senior scientist at Brookhaven National Laboratories. He was also a founding trustee and is vice chairman of the board of the Natural Resources Defense Council. He is a former chairman of the board of trustees and currently a member of the National Council of the World Wildlife Fund, a founding trustee of the World Resources Institute, a founder and honorary member of the board of trustees of the Environmental Defense Fund, and former president of the Ecological Society of America. Dr. Woodwell is the author of more than 300 major papers and books in ecology. He holds a doctorate in botany from Duke University and is the recipient of several honorary degrees. He is a member of the National Academy of Sciences and a fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. He is the author of “Forests in a Full World.”

In 2007, 115 US plants produced 7 billion gallons of Corn Ethanol – the energy equivalent of 132 million barrels of oil using about 15% of corn production. While this sounds large, it is tiny in the context of the US economy. This is equal to only 1.6% of the energy from from oil in 2007 used in the US. But the situation is worse than this because it takes 1 unit of fossil fuel to produce 1.3 units of corn ethanol. The net energy produced was only 0.5% of the energy from from oil – while consuming 15% of the US corn crop!

Vast sums of taxpayer and consumer dollars are funding an ineffective solution to the real problems of global warming and energy independence. While the country does not sufficiently fund what can be real solutions.

The Federal corn ethanol policy is extremely costly to working people in the US and the world’s poor (through higher food prices). The ethanol equivalent of a gallon of gasoline costs far more than a gallon of gasoline. Fueling your car with corn ethanol makes the world grain shortage worse and increases food prices to the world’s poor. 15 gallons of ethanol in your gas tank uses enough corn to feed one person for a year. Higher grain prices, from corn ethanol subsidies, have a big impact on grain feed beef, chicken, milk, and egg prices for hard working Americans.

US politicians love heavily subsidizing corn ethanol because it makes great politics because of the many subsidized winners from this policy – farmers, farm states, companies and workers that make fertilizer, seed, agriculture equipment; banks and venture capital; towns wanting new factories and jobs, construction workers and mis-informed green voters. By supporting Corn Ethanol, politicians can present themselves as Green and pro-energy independence.

There is a major economic boom in US grain farming from the massive government subsidies to corn ethanol from direct payments, credits and mandates for ethanol use – while the rest of the economy is likely in a recession. Oil companies benefit from Corn Ethanol, as it does little to reduce demand for oil and therefore keeps prices up. Big agriculture is more powerful than big oil, as big agriculture is powerful in most states while big oil is concentrated in a few states and many more people work in agriculture and supporting industries than the oil industry.

Another big interest group in the way are politicians who advocated corn ethanol, who now may be better informed that this was a bad policy – but are afraid to change for fear of “flip flopping” charges. Maybe as part the new politics, Democrats can have the courage to say as John Maynard Keynes said, “When the facts change, I change my mind ? what do you do, sir?” Then again there will be others who will do the same as Hillary Clinton did to preserve her reputation by – holding fast to the Iraq war – when it was recognized as bad policy.

It will take political courage to oppose Corn Ethanol’s powerful interests – while the rest of the public are not interested in “policy details.”

About the author

Nextstep, the author is a diarist with the Daily Kos web site.

The cold and snow is also a symptom of global warming: more heat causes the air to hold more water vapor and more heat dries out some areas — then dumps snow/rain on others. The weird result is both floods and droughts — and snowstorms. The United States hasn’t yet recovered from Katrina, but the United States and the rest of the world will have many ‘Katrina-like’ storms if we don’t make huge changes now. I keep writing my senators and congress to pass sweeping legislation to lower carbon emissions (Kyoto). I wrote them recently to make investments in clean energy and ‘green’ rebates instead of the across-the-board tax cuts.

Oil and gas are not really cheaper than other fuels if you look at the ‘total cost’ – pollution, bad health, etc. ‘An Inconvenient Truth,’ which was made six years ago, warns about all of these changes. It is annoying to hear people complain about Mr. Gore, because this is not about Al Gore, who is a leading environmental advocate and one of several ‘celebrity’ endorsements in the fight to save our environment, endorsements made necessary because people don’t seem to listen to scientists.

I’m sorry to say that I think this is only the beginning; when ocean levels start to rise, millions of people will be weather refugees. It is not just the polar bears that are in trouble. Global warming is really a ‘nicer’ name for global pollution. This may turn out to be the worst result of the bush-mobile, even worse than Iraq. I listened to a man in Clarksville complaining about gas prices and how to get them back to ‘reasonable’ levels. Everyone needs to accept that gas prices are going to keep increasing – there is no going back.