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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of December 14th, 2014

 

F&M Investment Services - Raymond James - Clarksville, TNClarksville, TN – Retail sales figures for November were stronger than expected, while results for September and October were revised higher. The report suggests that consumer spending growth is on a moderately strong path in 4Q14 – and we aren’t even close to seeing the full impact of the drop in gasoline prices (expect a bigger benefit for the consumer in the first half of 2015).

The retail sales data did little to offset the negative mood in equities. A further sharp decline in crude oil prices added to the anxiety. A sustained drop in oil prices will be a significant negative for oil producers here and abroad.

Frazier Allen

Frazier Allen

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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of December 7th, 2014

 

F&M Investment Services - Raymond James - Clarksville, TNClarksville, TN – In recent weeks, the U.S. stock market has reacted negatively to bad economic news out of Japan, China, and the euro area and positively to efforts by the corresponding central banks to spur growth. The European Central Bank did not make that extra effort on Thursday.

After strong hints that quantitative easing is on the way, the ECB’s Governing Council disappointed by failing to launch QE. ECB President Draghi indicated that further extraordinary measures could be employed “if needed.” The ECB staff and euro systems have stepped up technical preparations for QE, but Draghi seemed to suggest that there is no haste toward QE.

Frazier Allen

Frazier Allen

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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of December 2nd, 2014

 

F&M Investment Services - Raymond James - Clarksville, TNClarksville, TN – This week, the economic calendar picks up with fresh November figures. The focus is expected to be on the Employment Report, although the European Central Bank’s policy decision may be more critical.

ECB President Mario Draghi has repeatedly signaled that QE is on its way. Will the ECB pull the trigger this week? Seems likely (but if not, then in January).

Nonfarm payrolls were likely to have risen at a moderately strong pace, but seasonal adjustment could distort the figures (so take with a grain of salt).

Frazier Allen

Frazier Allen

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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of November 25th, 2014

 

F&M Investment Services - Raymond James - Clarksville, TNClarksville, TN – There are a few key financial market themes of the last several weeks. While the outlooks for the domestic economy and Federal Reserve policy are important, U.S. investors are sensitive to developments in the rest of the world.

Basically, poor economic news from the euro area, China, or Japan is a negative for U.S. equities, while any efforts by foreign central banks to address weakness are seen as a positive.

Japan posted a second quarterly decline in real GDP. Manufacturing gauges for the euro area and China were weak. The Bank of Japan extended its quantitative easing at the end of October.

Frazier Allen

Frazier Allen

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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of November 16th, 2014

 

F&M Investment Services - Raymond James - Clarksville, TNClarksville, TN – The economic calendar was thin. The report on retail sales, the only significant release during the week, was a little better than expected, restrained by the decline in gasoline prices. Note that lower gasoline prices should provide some support for consumer spending in the important holiday shopping season.

However, that support is likely to merely offset the impact of sluggish wage growth (leading to “okay” holiday sales). The impact of lower gasoline prices on consumer spending depends on how low gasoline prices go and how long they stay low, but usually arrives with a lag.

Frazier Allen

Frazier Allen

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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of November 12th, 2014

 

F&M Investment Services - Raymond James - Clarksville, TNClarksville, TN – As was widely anticipated, Republicans picked up enough seats in the mid-term elections to control the Senate. Voter turnout was low, especially among young people and Hispanics.

Some are hopeful for a new spirit of bipartisanship, which happens after every mid-term election. Others are expecting the Republicans to accomplish things, such as tax reform and immigration reform.

Frazier Allen

Frazier Allen

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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of November 2nd, 2014

 

F&M Investment Services - Raymond James - Clarksville, TNClarksville, TN – As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee brought the large-scale asset purchase program (QE3) to an end and repeated that it expects conditions to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate “for a considerable time.”

The policy statement was viewed as more hawkish (or less dovish) than anticipated. The FOMC noted that the slack in the job market is “diminishing gradually” (in the previous statement, slack was described as “significant”). The Fed added that the initial increase in short-term interest rates likely would come sooner if the economy is stronger than anticipated or later if the economy disappoints.

Frazier Allen

Frazier Allen

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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of October 26th, 2014

 

F&M Investment Services - Raymond James - Clarksville, TNClarksville, TN – Mixed, but generally favorable, earnings reports and an ebbing in Ebola fears helped propel the major stock market indices higher.

The economic data were largely irrelevant. The Consumer Price Index continued to show a low trend in inflation (+1.7% y/y for both the headline index and the core). Home sales figures were mixed. The Index of Leading Economic Indicators rose 0.8% suggesting little chance of a recession anytime soon

Next week, the earnings calendar is brisk with about a third of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting. There are two key items on the economic calendar: the Fed policy meeting and the advance estimate of 3Q14 GDP growth.

Frazier Allen

Frazier Allen

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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of October 19th, 2014

 

F&M Investment Services - Raymond James - Clarksville, TNClarksville, TN – What a week. Concerns about the downside risks to Europe and the rest of the world pushed global equity markets down and the U.S. followed. The economic data mattered little for the most part, but disappointing retail sales figures added to the drop in U.S. stocks on Wednesday.

Yields on long-term Treasuries sank sharply. Following a few days of elevated volatility, the financial markets appeared to settle down on Friday.

Frazier Allen

Frazier Allen

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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of October 7th, 2014

 

F&M Investment Services - Raymond James - Clarksville, TNClarksville, TN – There were plenty of economic data reports, but the financial markets mostly obsessed about other things (quarter–end positioning, soft global growth, geopolitical tensions, Ebola). The headline figures from the employment report were better than expected, a positive for stocks and a negative for bonds.

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 248,000 in September, while the two previous months were revised a net 69,000 higher. Some of the strength reflected a rebound from special factors that had reduced the August total.

Frazier Allen

Frazier Allen

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