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Topic: Dow Jones Industrial Average

Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of May 22nd, 2016

 

F&M Investment Services - Raymond James - Clarksville, TNClarksville, TN – The FOMC minutes from the April 26th-27th policy meeting showed that “most [meeting] participants judged that if incoming data were consistent with economic growth picking up in the second quarter, labor market conditions continuing to strengthen, and inflation making progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent objective, then it likely would be appropriate for the Committee to increase the target range for the federal funds rate in June.”

However, “participants expressed a range of views about the likelihood that incoming information would make it appropriate to adjust the stance of policy at the time of the next meeting.”

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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of May 15th, 2016

 

F&M Investment Services - Raymond James - Clarksville, TNClarksville, TN – The economic calendar was quiet until the end of the week. April retail sales results surprised to upside, with upward revisions to February and March. This ran counter to generally weak monthly sales reports from a number of individual retailers.

March sales were likely distorted (and depressed) by the early Easter. Results reflected strong trends in nonstore retailers (which includes Internet retailers), restaurants (helped by low gasoline prices, but also reflecting a long-term trend of households taking more meals outside the home), and drug stores (which likely reflects runaway prices of pharmaceuticals).

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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of May 10th, 2016

 

F&M Investment Services - Raymond James - Clarksville, TNClarksville, TN – The economic data were mixed, but generally consistent with moderately strong economic growth in the near term. Motor vehicle sales rebounded in April, from what appears to have been an Easter-related decline in March.

The ISM surveys split; manufacturing a bit softer, non-manufacturing a bit stronger. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 160,000 in the initial estimate for April, below the median forecast (+200,000), but not horrible (note that the economy added 1.057 million jobs before seasonal adjustment).

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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of May 1st, 2016

 

F&M Investment Services - Raymond James - Clarksville, TNClarksville, TN – As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee left short-term interest rates unchanged. In its policy statement, the FOMC noted that “labor market conditions have improved further even as growth in economic activity appears to have slowed.”

The key phrase from the mid-March statement, “global economic and financial developments continue to pose risks,” was removed, although officials promised to closely monitor conditions. Equities rallied on the Fed statement (in part, perhaps, because the meeting was simply out of the way), but global markets weakened after the Bank of Japan failed to stimulate further.

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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of April 24th, 2016

 

F&M Investment Services - Raymond James - Clarksville, TNClarksville, TN – The economic data remained consistent with a lackluster to moderate pace of growth in the near term. Building permits and housing starts disappointed in March, reflecting a pullback in multi-family activity (which appears to have been unsustainably strong in 2015).

Single-family permits, the key figure in the report, fell 1.2%, but the first quarter total was 15.2% higher than in 1Q15. Existing home sales rebounded from a soft February (likely reflecting weather effects in the Northeast and Midwest). The Index of Leading Economic Indicators rose 0.2%, following three consecutive monthly declines.

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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of April 21st, 2016

 

F&M Investment Services - Raymond James - Clarksville, TNClarksville, TN – The economic data were mixed, but mostly on the soft side of expectations. Retail sales fell in March, reflecting a pullback in auto sales (dealers noted lean inventories of popular models and a lack of dealer incentives). Ex-autos, gasoline and building materials, sales were flat (+3.2% y/y), but February was revised higher (making it about a wash relative to expectations).

Industrial production fell 0.6% in March, reflecting warm temperatures (another drop in the output of utilities) and a further contraction in oil and gas well drilling (down 72% since the end of 2014).

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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of April 10th, 2016

 

F&M Investment Services - Raymond James - Clarksville, TNClarksville, TN – The minutes of the March 15th-16th FOMC meeting showed that most officials did not see much change in their growth outlooks since December, due partly to expectations of a more gradual policy path (recall that most officials had expected four 25-basis-point hikes in 2016, but now see two).

“Several” meeting participants “argued for proceeding cautiously in reducing policy accommodation,” noting the downside risks from the rest of the world and the possibility that inflation expectations could fall.

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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of April 3rd, 2016

 

F&M Investment Services - Raymond James - Clarksville, TNClarksville, TN – In her speech, Fed Chair Yellen indicated that “given the risks, I consider it appropriate for the [FOMC] to proceed cautiously in adjusting policy.” This dovish stance was taken well by financial market participants.

Yellen emphasized that the Fed’s projections (such as the dots in the dot plot) are expectations and “not a plan written in stone.” Fed policy decisions will remain data-dependent, but Yellen stressed that the central bank has a limited ability to respond to downside shocks to the economy.

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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of March 13th, 2016

 

F&M Investment Services - Raymond James - Clarksville, TNClarksville, TN – The economic calendar was thin. Jobless claims fell more than expected (not too unusual), while the four-week average remained very low (about as low as it can go given the normal labor market frictions). Small business optimism fell in February. The Quarterly Services Survey pointed to an upward revision to the estimate of consumer spending growth for 4Q15.

The European Central Bank surprised the markets by doing much more than expected (lowering interest rates, expanding QE, and making other efforts to boost growth).

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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of March 6th, 2016

 

F&M Investment Services - Raymond James - Clarksville, TNClarksville, TN – Nonfarm payrolls rose more than expected in February, while figures for the two previous months were revised higher. At 228,000, the three-month average has remained strong. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.9%, but labor force participation continued to pick up and the employment/population ratio is trending higher.

Hours fell, likely reflecting bad weather (weakness in hours was concentrated in mining, which includes energy exploration, and construction). Average hourly earnings fell 0.1% (following a 0.5% rise in January), bringing the year-over-year gain down to 2.2% (from 2.5%), but the three-month average was up nearly 2.5% y/y.

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