“Good luck happens when preparedness meets opportunity” – Anonymous

The key to emergency preparedness is an accurate understanding of the risks and challenges you face. Underestimating your risks leads to complacency and failure to prepare effectively. Overestimating your risks leads to the Armageddon Fallacy and failure to prepare effectively (if at all) because of the enormity of the imagined potential disaster.

The harsh truth is that the calculus of survival is not entirely within our control. No matter how many risks we address, there are situations which are simply unforeseeable or unaddressable. However, by taking effective action to minimize the likely risks, we can greatly increase our chances of survival in an emergency or disaster situation.

This Diary marks the conclusion of this series. In this final installment, we will complete our discussion of material preparations, discuss personal security, and bring this series to a conclusion. In Part 4 of this series, we covered the majority of the material preparations required to support most emergency preparedness plans. Today’s installment will cover the remaining material-prep topics, as well as personal and group security in various situations.

Shelter

While we have discussed Environment in some detail (see Part 4), shelter deserves a category of its own. Your correspondent confesses that it would have been more logical to cover Shelter immediately before Environment; this will be corrected in any derivative versions of this work.

Your preparedness plan MUST address the following scenarios:

1. Your primary residence is habitable; what materials and tools do you have on hand to keep it that way if it is damaged?
2. You are forced by circumstances to spend a night outdoors but in the vicinity of your home, e.g. in a yard or park; what shelter can you provide for your household?
3. Your home or neighborhood is not habitable and you decide to evacuate by car; do you have a list of places you could stay along the likely escape routes from your region, at various distances?

EMERGENCY REPAIRSIn your correspondent’s opinion, being prepared to make minor emergency repairs to your home is one of the least expensive and most effective things you can do to prepare for the aftermath of a disaster. While specific techniques vary depending on construction, the type of damage likely in your situation, and so forth, there are certain common materials which are incredibly useful for tactical repairs during or after a crisis:

Tools & Fasteners:

• Basic toolkit; see the Allied 39031 kit as an example. Even if you already have a set of tools, consider setting aside one of these self-contained all-in-one kits for emergencies.
• Utility knife with spare blades (even if kit has one)
• Hand drill, e.g. Fiskars Hand Drill
• Drill & screwdrive bit set, e.g. Black & Decker 109pc
• Nails
• 3″ drywall screws
• 2″ wood screws
• 2 large rolls duct tape

Materials:

• 1 roll plastic sheeting (”tarp on a roll”) in thickest gauge available
• 2×2 stock in 6′ or 8′ lengths
• 2×4 stock in 6′ or 8′ lengths
• Plywood sheeting suitable to your needs

EMERGENCY OUTDOOR SHELTERPlan A: Acquire a tent large enough to sleep everyone in your household. This is dual-use equipment, and the author highly commends the practice of taking your family camping to build character and self-sufficiency in situations outside normal routine.

Plan B: Use plastic tarpaulins and/or plastic sheeting to construct an improvised shelter. This is not as easy as it sounds. Seriously, a tent is a much better choice. If you must go this route, use features of your environment as an integral part of your shelter, i.e. use the back corner of your wooden-fenced yard as the starting point. Having suitable materials will make this task much easier:

• grommeted, opaque woven-plastic tarps
• anchor stakes
• nylon cord

EVACUATION SHELTER POINTS

A critical element of any evacuation plan is knowing where you’re going. Spending a few minutes identifying and noting likely shelter locations along your probable evacuation routes now means much less stress when a crisis occurs. Shelter locations may include hotels, motels, campgrounds, highway rest areas, and houses of friends or family. Even if you are fortunate enough to have a second home (e.g. a vacation cabin) you must still have a plan in case your alternate location is unreachable.

Be sure to record all relevant information for your identified shelter points in your disaster plan; for hotel/motel sites, record both the local phone number and the national reservation number(s). Also consider your means of payment for accomodations. A credit card will be required to secure a phone reservation, and you do NOT want to be caught without a reservation when you arrive at the hotel.

Finally, the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina has made it obvious that everyone in a region at risk of natural disaster (e.g. virtually all of us) should consider where we could take refuge without ruining our family finances. Staying in a motel is neither cheap nor pleasant over the long haul, and counting on government funding to offset these costs is foolhardy.

Medical (first aid/trauma)

In normal, everyday life, few injuries are truly life-threatening. In a disaster, minor cuts can become infected, and if left unchecked the infection can cause the loss of a limb or even cost the life of the patient. The key, in either situation, is early, effective treatment.

The reader should keep in mind that the medical materials recommended for dealing with first-aid or trauma situations are not intended to equip the reader to go forth and treat the wounded masses. Carefully distinguish between supplies intended to preserve and ensure the health of your household, versus those which could be used to help others. Your correspondent, for example, maintains a personal first-aid kit separate from the supplies in his disaster-response gear.

A good starting point for first-aid preparedness is a Red Cross first-aid/CPR class. Similar classes are offered in affiliation with CERT programs (as discussed previously). Practical, hands-on training is a must, as you learn the material in ways that are simply not possible when studying written or online materia.

It is far easier to deal with injuries if you’re properly equipped. For most people, the easiest road to success is to start with a prepared kit, and then add tools and supplies to complete the package. Recommendations:

• The REI Backpacker First Aid Kit (at right) is as close to a perfect base kit as your author has found; at the time of this writing, the REI Outlet has the 2004 kits on clearance
• 1 bottle Povidone-iodine disinfectant solution (Betadine) sealed in zip-lock bag
• 1 tube Neosporin + Pain Relief ointment
• Nexcare Liquid Bandage Drops — see below for additional comments on this important item
• 1 box Telfa non-stick pads, repackaged into 1-2 zip-lock bags
• 1 roll of one-inch-wide cloth First Aid Tape
• Blue Nitrile EMS gloves, stored 10 per ziplock sandwich bag
• CPR mask — a MUST for administering CPR without risk of infectious disease
• EMT shears for accessing wounds in clothed areas
• Protective eyewear with splash resistance
• Filter mask(s)
• 1 white-LED micro flashlight such as PT Pulsar
• 1 blue-LED micro flashlight (as above, but in blue) for spotting blood
• 1 bottle aspirin
• 1 bottle ibuprofen
• 1 bottle acetaminophen
• 1 bottle liquid Benadryl with means for dispensing measured doses
• 1 package Pepto-Bismol tablets (not liquid)
• 1 package anti-diarrheal tablets

A note regarding one very special item in the list above: in your correspondent’s estimation, one of the most underreported recent developments in wound care is the adaptation of surgical superglue (cyanoacrylate, or “CA” glue) to the consumer market. A wound sealed with sterile CA glue, such as the Nexcare product linked above, will stop bleeding immediately, and generally will not require a separate bandage.If you have first-aid kits already, add the Nexcare product to all of them at your earliest convenience. It’s that good. Don’t bother with the other products that require you to use special activator swabs, go for the Nexcare product. Your correspondent recently sliced down the dorsal surface of his left index finger from the second knuckle to the fingernail with the tip of an extremely sharp knife. Conventional wound care products were mediocre at stopping the bleeding, and did nothing for the pain. The Nexcare drops not only took care of the bleeding, but by sealing together and immobilizing the edges of the cut, stopped the pain from the exposed nerve endings.

UPDATE: Two other emerging technologies which are revolutionizing trauma wound management are QuikClot (currently available only to emergency services professionals) and SEAL-ON/m*doc, which is available over-the-counter. The author can personally attest to the efficacy of SEAL-ON products for stopping severe nosebleeds and scalp wounds.

If you are interested in preparing to deal with traumatic injury, such as might reasonably be expected in the aftermath of a natural disaster, please seek appropriate training. Reference books, while useful, can be difficult to employ effectively in stressful situations.

If you do decide to pick up a book on emergency medicine, keep in mind that in a disaster the conventional strategy of “keep the victim alive until the cavalry arrives” does not apply. You must assume that any lifesaving measures must be capable of sustaining the victim without immediate medical attention by a pro, and plan accordingly. Unfortunately, this sometimes means that the victim will die. If you take a CERT class, you will learn more about how to assess a victim’s chances of survival, a process called triage.

Medical (sustaining care)

File of Life is your portable medical record

At a minimum, every copy of your preparedness plan should include a detailed list of prescribed medications for each member of your household, as well as contact information for the prescribing physician.

A separate sheet should detail all known food, drug, and environmental allergies for each individual.

If appropriate, request your prescribing physician(s) to provide prescription forms for an emergency supply of maintenance medications. Pay attention to any must-be-filled-by policies in force in your state. Note that certain medications are prescribed on forms which are only valid for 14 days after the date written on the form by the doctor.

Finally, be sure to keep an emergency supply of any equipment required to administer required medications, as well as anything needed to safely dispose of waste generated in the process.

Medication management

It is strongly suggested that, to the extent that it is practical, a 14-day supply of all required medication(s) should be stored in the home preparedness kit. It is further suggested that a 5-day supply be stored in the vehicle and/or work preparedness kits. When storing medication, which has a limited shelf life, keeping track of expiration dates is key. Expired medication can be worse than useless, it can be dangerous.

Your correspondent uses the following plan to manage medication stored in emergency kits. No doubt, commenters will come up with many inventive and workable alternative plans for meeting this need. This is presented as an example of a plan that works, not as The One True Way.

Separate and distinct from the prescribed-medication list referenced above is a medication log kept in each kit with stored medication. This log is kept in pencil on a designated page in a Rite in the Rain spiral notebook, which is also used as an equipment log. A pencil is affixed to the notebook on a cord long enough to permit writing.

Each medication is logged in using the notebook, including quantity, expiration date, and do-not-use-after date if different from the expiration date. This includes not only the prescription meds, but also the over-the-counter meds and supplies with limited shelf lives.

Whenever possible, prescription meds are stored in an original bottle with the actual expiration date written on the top of the bottle. (It’s usually the case that the meds in the bottle are newer than the label would indicate.)

Knives and Multi-tools

Leatherman multi-tool

Your humble correspondent must disclose up front that he has been carrying a Leatherman pocket tool daily for over a decade, after having tried various other types and brands of implement. He would no more be caught without his Leatherman Charge XTi than without his cellphone or wallet.

It is certainly open for debate whether it is useful, in most emergency situations, to have a fixed-blade knife as part of your preparedness kit. In the author’s opinion, a traditional fixed-blade knife is more of a liability than an asset due to its bulk, its intimidating appearance but limited usefulness in personal defense, and its lack of flexibility compared to a multi-tool.

At a minimum, every emergency kit (home, vehicle, work) should contain a cheap, lower-quality multitool such as this one. While your correspondent is somewhat hesitant to recommend such a cheaply made piece of equipment, the fact is that a low-quality tool beats the hell out of having no tool at all.

However, if you have any choice at all, invest in a higher quality tool, from a name-brand manufacturer. The author’s Leatherman Super Tool was recently refurbished for free by the factory after 8 years of daily use, and is now oiled and stored in a vehicle preparedness kit. Other brands of multi-tool, notably Gerber, are known for similar levels of durability and longevity in service.

If you are going to spend a few dollars on a multi-tool, a very important safety feature is having locking blades and tools. Your author can attest, from painful personal experience, that having a razor-sharp blade suddenly snap shut on your fingers when applying heavy pressure to the knife is a Very Bad Thing.

Kits, storage, and go-packs, oh my!

While we have discussed certain approaches to organizing and storing equipment along the way, it’s time to pull together all the various material preparations you may choose to include in your plans.

As has been mentioned throughout this series, you should consider creating the following preparedness kits with materials relevant to the risks you face:

• 3-day vehicle kit for each vehicle in the family
• 3-day work kit for each person who works outside the home
• 14-day comprehensive home kit, with a subset of that kit suitable for adaptation into a 3-day travel kit

Recommendations for packing items into kits:

1. Seal all individual items in durable waterproof packaging, such as heavy-gauge ziplock freezer bags
2. Line backpacks and utility bags with heavy-gauge plastic bags, e.g. those sold as 55-gallon drum liners (extremely tough); when the bag is packed, press out excess air, roll the end of the bag over at least three times, and secure with a velcro strap or similar fastener
3. Group items by function, and pack items likely to be used together into the same bag or container.
4. For critical items such as flashlights, can openers, and so forth, pack spares and alternate items in separate locations.

A small nylon backpack works well for work and vehicle kits. A second bag may be required for clothing and footwear; be sure you can carry both bags comfortably.Home preparedness kits should be assembled into containers, each of which must be labeled with its contents. Be sure not to over-pack individual containers to the point that they are difficult or impossible to lift. The author is a big fan of Rubbermaid Action Packer containers, as they are lockable, watertight, stackable, and extremely durable.

Storage

Having access to your preparedness kits, especially your home kit, is a critical goal you must take into consideration when planning where to store your gear. Residents in earthquake territory have different needs than those in, say, blizzard country.

First, consider safety. If you are storing any significant quantity of emergency fuel, you need to store it outside your home and preferably away from any exterior walls.

Next, consider the risks to the safety and accessibility of your preparedness materials. If you live in an area at risk of earthquakes, for example, your preparedness kit won’t be of much use stored under the stairs if your house is too dangerous to enter post-quake. Consider installing a locking outdoor storage container such as the Rubbermaid XL Deck Box, which is large enough to store a tremendous volume of gear and supplies safely away from your house. Be sure to equip any outdoor storage containers with a waterproof outdoor combination lock.

An inexpensive alternative is to pack your home kit into wheeled trash cans. This has the advantage of being more easily portable if you need to relocate a short distance, e.g. to a nearby park.

Go-packs

As previously mentioned, a portion of your home kit should be easily portable. In addition to items previously discussed, your household go-pack plan should include your critical papers, such as birth certificates, loan documents, insurance docs, and so forth. Here’s the real test to see if you’ve done this right: if your house caught on fire and you outside with your family, your pets, and your go-pack, would you be able to begin putting your life back together? Consider keeping backups of critical computer data in your go-pack, such as CDs containing your family’s digital photographs.

Security measures for personal and group safety

Ezekiel 25:17 – according to Quentin Tarantino, that is:
“The path of the righteous man is beset on all sides by the inequities of the selfish and the tyranny of evil men. Blessed is he who, in the name of charity and good will, shepherds the weak through the valley of the darkness. For he is truly his brother’s keeper and the finder of lost children. [...]”

The sad truth is that during times of crisis, both the noblest and the basest parts of human nature are laid bare for all to see. In desperate situations, people will commit acts unthinkable in times of plenty. It is prudent to plan to protect yourself, your family, and your community.

Personal security

Some of the readers of this series adhere to a philosophy of non-violence, which the author respects. This does not preclude the use of nonlethal means of self-defense. At a minimum, the author recommends that you include at least one large OC (pepper) defensive spray and at least one contact-type stun device with spare battery in each emergency kit.

The OC pepper spray is dual-use; it can be used to deter human harassment or assault, and it will send even the largest hungry dog running for the hills. NOTE: OC pepper spray (or any chemical spray, for that matter) should NEVER be discharged in an enclosed space unless life is at stake. The electric stun device is easily concealable, and at a minimum each female member of your group old enough to handle one safely should have one.

Group and site security

Your preparedness both increases your chances of survival and puts you at risk. In a situation where resources are scarce, people who have not prepared to deal with that situation may be driven to desperate acts.

Your first line of defense is to maintain a low profile. Running a generator 24×7, powering bright lights, and cranking up the music and TV will draw attention. Your goal should be to minimize your profile, and give no hint that your household is any better off than the surrounding community. Be cautious in discussing details of your preparedness plans with anyone outside your household. That information is on a need-to-know basis, and most people just don’t need to know.

You should, however, be prepared to defend yourself, your family, and your resources against those who would do you harm. Yes, folks, it’s time to talk about guns.

Before you purchase a gun, you MUST learn how to store, handle, and use one safely. Your correspondent offers free basic firearms instruction to residents or visitors in the San Francisco Bay Area. Introductory classes are available in most cities at indoor and outdoor ranges, gun clubs, and through various NRA programs.

After you purchase a gun, in addition to storing it safely, you MUST practice with it at least once per year. This has the dual benefits of maintaining your familiarity with the firearm ,and verifying that the firearm remains in good working condition.

Finally, be realistic regarding the circumstances under which you might need a gun at all, much less use it against another person. For example, the author submits that a citizen shooting someone more than 100′ (30m) away calls into question (a) how much of an immediate threat that person really was, (b) how you clearly identified that person and the threat they presented, and (c) whether you were shooting without regard to anyone near or behind the target. Just because it’s a disaster zone doesn’t mean the shooter won’t end up explaining this to a judge and jury in the future.

= Shotguns =

If you’re going to buy a single gun for defensive purposes, the author recommends a pump-action 12-gauge shotgun with an 18″ barrel. The Remington 870 Express Synthetic is the standard in this area, and at under $350 retail is very affordable. Other options to consider include the Mossberg 500 SP series.

However, the blast and recoil from a full-power shell in a 12-gauge shotgun can be quite startling, or even painful, for inexperienced shooters. The author strongly recommends the use of reduced-recoil ammunition, such as Remington Express Managed-Recoil Buckshot, as well as the use of an aftermarket rubber recoil pad securely affixed to the butt of the shotgun stock.

The addition of a sling, which can be quite inexpensive, is likewise strongly recommended. If you have to shepherd your group on foot out of the disaster zone, you’re not going to want to carry a shotgun in your hands the entire way.

Finally, a “defensive shotgun” or “introduction to shotgun” class is highly recommended for all authorized users. Many people are surprised at the difference training makes when it comes to effectively using a gun which seems as simple and straightforward as the shotgun.

= Rifles & Carbines =

While most people are conceptually familiar with rifles because of TV and movies, few people understand the difference between a rifle and a carbine. The simple explanation: carbines are shorter than the full-size rifles, and fire bullets with less velocity and impact energy, resulting in shorter range and striking power. This is caused by the use of a shorter barrel and/or a less powerful cartridge compared to a rifle. Many carbines are chambered for pistol ammunition (specifically, revolver ammunition) rather than rifle ammo.

In keeping with the author’s admonition that the maximum range for a defensive firearm is 100′ or less, even in a disaster situation, a good potential alternative to the Remington 870 shotgun above is a Winchester Model 94 lever-action rifle. Most people would instantly recognize this as a classic “cowboy rifle”.

Your correspondent specifically recommends the Winchester Model 94 Trails End in the .357 Magnum caliber. This means that the rifle fires relatively inexpensive and plentiful .357 Magnum pistol ammunition, but at much higher velocity and energy than a pistol due to the longer barrel. Recommended accessories include a sling and a red dot sight with spare battery.

A word about handguns…

If you are unfamiliar with firearms, and intend to purchase a gun for home defense, a handgun is not necessarily the best choice. However, in disaster situations, handguns do offer certain advantages:

• pistols can be concealed on one’s person or carried in a non-obvious fashion
• pistols are lighter and less bulky than rifles or shotguns

When selecting a handgun, be sure to shoot it or an equivalent model before you decide to purchase. That Casull .454 monster revolver might seem like a manly choice in the gun store, but it’s useless if you’re incapable of firing it without flinching. (For the record, the author considers the Casull .454 to be ridiculously overpowered and refuses to shoot it or its giant-caliber brethren.)Your correspondent is comfortable with a wide range of handguns, but prefers the .40 caliber H&K USP and the .45 caliber SIGarms P220R. His first choice for a concealable handgun is the somewhat expensive and exotic 9mm H&K P7M8, but reluctantly concedes that the SIGarms P239 and GLOCK 26/27 are more practical and affordable choices.

CONCLUSION

I hope that this series of articles has been useful to you, rather than overwhelming. I urge you to ‘eat the elephant one bite at a time’, that is, to break down the process of moving into a state of preparedness into manageable steps. Don’t be self-conscious if you start off taking only modest steps towards preparedness; even that is a huge improvement over failure to prepare.

Remember, preparedness as a state of mind is at least as important as having a pile of store-bought stuff in any kind of disaster. Always have a plan, and a backup plan in case your first plan doesn’t work out. (And, if nothing else, have a good communication plan to fall back on!)

I will be posting a couple of follow-up diaries in coming days and weeks to stimulate further discussion regarding preparedness in our homes, our communities, and our workplaces. Please be sure to share any insights or adventures you encounter as you work developing and implementing your preparedness plans.

Thank you to all the folks who have read and recommended the Diaries in this series.

“In the first 48 to 72 hours of an emergency, many Americans will have to look after themselves.”

– David Paulison, 2005 FEMA Director Nominee

Preparedness for emergency situations is not a solitary pursuit.

Each of us lives in the context of a larger society. Few among us could survive for long without the support of myriad other people and institutions we depend upon for our daily needs. A realistic disaster plan must balance these dependencies against the stark truth that you are likely to be required to survive outside this system for days or weeks at a time at some point in your life.

Being prepared for disaster does not have to be time-consuming or expensive. In this multi-part series of DailyKos Diaries, I will share with you, dear reader, many of the lessons I’ve learned regarding the most effective ways to prepare for an emergency.

This is the third installment in a multi-part series on personal disaster preparedness. Your humble correspondent is a Silicon Valley technical executive with both professional and personal experience in risk assessment and disaster-readiness planning. Links to reference materials, including planning guides and reference information, will be found at the end of the final Diaries in this series.

WARNING: This Diary series discusses a wide range of disaster-related subjects in a straightforward, honest fashion. Some people may experience a strong emotional reaction to reading about or discussing situations which are normally avoided in polite conversation. You have been warned.

Previous Diaries in this series have addressed the basic principles underlying preparedness, including some elementary disaster psychology. The remaining installments, beginning with this one, are sharply focused on the practical aspects of planning and preparation to survive a disaster.

When disaster strikes, will you be prepared?

In this installment, we will complete our discussion of step 2, planning to address risks. As mentioned above, today’s installment is sharply focused on the practical aspects of preparedness planning.

The AlphaGeek approach to disaster preparedness

The field of preparedness planning is an interesting one, full of colorful characters and hair-raising tales. Your humble correspondent is not an ex-Special-Forces badass, nor is he a buckskin-clad outdoor survival specialist. My “specialty”, if you will, is preparedness planning for suburban and exurban environments. Above all, I focus on pragmatic, sustainable plans which recognize the common failure modes for family- and community-level crisis management.

In a nutshell, I believe that family-level preparedness plans (and material support for those plans) should meet the following criteria:

• Any critical element of each plan must have at least one clearly explained alternate solution
• All plans must be in written form, ready to be executed by anyone entrusted with the safety of your family
• A written copy of your plan must be available in any context in which you might need to execute said plan (e.g. home, work, vehicles)
• Everyone involved in your preparedness plans (e.g. out-of-state relatives) must review their part of the plan and understand their role
• Material preparations must not require inspection more than once per year, and must still be capable of meeting minimum requirements if left unattended for 4 years

Red Cross survival gear for your home can be packed in a single tub with a lid

The fact is, folks, that people are lazy, your correspondent included. If your disaster plan depends on dumping and refilling bottles of water every 3 months, let’s face it — at some point, you ARE going to get slack and lose the motivation to keep to the schedule. It takes a pretty deep-seated insecurity complex to consistently maintain your preparedness materials every 90 days over a span of years, and most people just can’t sustain that level of effort. Having bad bottled water and canned food three years past its expiration date isn’t an inconvenience in a crisis — it’s dangerous, because in extremis you might be tempted to use it anyway.

A realistic preparedness plan, in your author’s estimation, should address the following objectives. Remember, tomorrow we will discuss all of the tips and tricks needed to implement a preparedness plan centered on emphasizes practicality and cost-efficiency. The fifth and final installment in this series will detail your correspondent’s preparations for each of these situations, but keep in mind that your preparedness package must address your risks, not those of some guy in California earthquake country.

Communications and rendezvous plan

Cellphones may or may not work; depending on the disaster, towers and power lines may be down.

In a crisis, you are likely to be separated from at least one member of your family. Start with the assumption that your family is at its most vulnerable, i.e. at maximum separation in your daily routines. Your rendezvous plan should address the possibility that family members at work and/or may need to evacuate quickly.

Your communications plan should have two priorities: advise concerned parties on your situation (safe, injured, etc.) and propagate information between people in the disaster zone who may not be able to communicate directly.

House fire: evacuation, response, and aftermath

No explanation needed. If you don’t know what you’re going to do in case of a house fire, you are at significant risk of dying in one. If, after failing to plan, you get out alive the aftermath is likely to be extremely difficult.

Any number of organizations offer complete guides on how to prepare for a home fire emergency, including the Red Cross. Download and use one of these guides today.

Home refuge with no services: Ten (10) days self-sufficiency

Yes, that’s right, folks: 10 days with no running water, no grid electricity, and no natural gas and/or propane delivery. This is most likely to occur during inclement weather (see: natural disasters) so assume that you will need to deal with extremes of heat/humidity or cold. Sanitation and medical requirements for high-needs individuals will both be challenging; plan accordingly.

Open-space refuge with no services: Five (5) days self-sufficiency

If your house is unfit to occupy, you may still be able to set up camp nearby. For this situation, assume that you can recover a significant fraction of your home preparedness package. Identify several likely locations near your home where you might set up a temporary refuge. (NOTE: This is primarily applicable in communities at risk of severe earthquake damage.)

Refuge in/near vehicle: Three (3) days self-sufficiency

Can you live in your vehicle for 3 days? Principal concerns are food, water, clothing and sanitation. Fuel: you either have it or you don’t, and most people won’t/can’t carry an emergency supply large enough to make a significant difference.

Work refuge with no services: Three (3) days self-sufficiency

Assume that the preparedness kit in your vehicle is inaccessible, e.g. the parking garage fell down on your car when the quake hit. How will you get through three days at your place of employment, assuming that movement outside the premises is too hazardous to attempt?

In the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, Red Cross volunteers staffed shelters to assist survivors of that storm

Evacuation to community shelter: Three (3) days self-sufficiency

Relocation to a community shelter is not the end of your worries. (Exhibit A: New Orleans Superdome. Exhibit B: New Orleans Convention Center.) Are you prepared to be self-sufficient within this environment for up to 3 days with minimal/no access to services?

Evacuation from disaster zone: by vehicle

Similar to the refuge in/near vehicle requirement above, but with the added requirements of routing, fuel supply, and so forth. How will you evacuate when the gas stations are closed and/or sold out and the fuel gauge is on ‘E’?

Evacuation from disaster zone: on foot

In dire circumstances, it may be more dangerous to stay in your community than it is to attempt evacuation without the benefit of car. You should have a plan to walk/bike/sled/swim 30 miles over the course of 72 hours to reach safety. This is generally a plan of last resort.

Key planning considerations for your preparedness plan

As you put together your plan for each element in your risk-assessment list, consider how you will address the following needs:

• Environment (heat/AC)
• Electricity
• Water (Stored & portable)
• Nutrition (Stored & portable)
• Food preparation
• Food preservation
• Lighting
• Active communications (cellphone/payphone/radio/Internet)
• Passive communications (radio/TV)
• Entertainment (books/games)
• Clothing
• Transportation
• Shelter (Permanent & portable)
• Medical needs (maintenance medication)
• Medical needs (first-aid/trauma)
• Sanitation (personal hygiene, human wastes, trash/garbage)

Risks, training, and community

Local Red Cross chapters offer basic First Aid, CPR and fFirst responder Training as well as instruction in shelter operations and other fields

In Part 1 of this series, you were asked to consider the risks you face where you live. If you did your homework, you now have a prioritized list of risks that you should plan to address.

In Part 2 of this series, we discussed the psychology of disaster preparedness, and the relationship between FUD (fear, uncertainty and doubt) and effective crisis response. The prescription for avoiding FUD or shock-induced catatonia is simple: training and practice.

In addition to dry-run rehearsals of the preparedness plans you assemble to address your risks, you should plan to rehearse your fire response plan on a regular basis — at least once per year. Pick a holiday which you normally spend at home, and make that “drill day”.

You’ve heard this before, but please listen anyway: every adult should take a combination First Aid/CPR course at least once every 10 years. Yes, you need to take CPR more often to maintain your certification, but at a minimum everyone should take the combo course every 10 years.

In any disaster, community plays a huge role. The time to forge the bonds that hold a community together is not in the aftermath of a disaster. Fortunately, many communities in the US already have programs in place which encourage outreach and relationship-building.

In your correspondent’s experience, the most useful program is CERT, short for Community Emergency Response Team. The CERT program provides a free 16-20 hour training course which covers disaster preparedness, fire suppression, medical operations, light search-and-rescue, and disaster psychology.

Beyond CERT, however, strong community organizations are needed to provide mutual support in a crisis. Many cities with significant disaster risks support and encourage the formation of neighborhood associations. These organizations both raise awareness of the need for preparedness planning and encourage neighbors to get acquainted instead of keeping to themselves.

Urban dwellers, particularly those in high-density housing such as high-rise apartment buildings, are strongly encouraged to reach out to neighbors and openly discuss the need for preparedness.

Scenarios

Scenario 2 – Heat wave

Description: An unrelenting summer heat wave spreads across the Southwest. Daytime temperatures of over 110F are common. The electric power generation and distribution systems, strained by the load, suffer widespread failures.

Scenario profile:
Family separated: NO
Immediate evacuation required: NO
Post-event evacuation required: POSSIBLE
Services interrupted: YES (electricity)
Mean time to restoration of services: 3 days
Period of initial isolation: not applicable
Communications: minimal disruption
Secondary risks: Medical services overwhelmed by heat-related casualties

Requirements for survival:
Environment: YES, daytime environmental cooling
Electricity: YES, food preservation and environmental control
Water (stored): NO
Water (portable): YES, required in case of relocation
Nutrition (stored): YES, fresh food may spoil
Nutrition (portable): YES, required in case of relocation
Food preparation: YES, if kitchen is all-electric
Food preservation: YES
Lighting: YES, but minimal – night-time use only Alternate active communications: NO, phone/cell network functional
Passive communications: YES, need to stay informed
Entertainment: YES, can’t go outside
Clothing: NO
Transportation: YES, in case of relocation or medical emergency
Shelter (permanent): NO
Shelter (portable): NO
Medical needs (maintenance medication): YES, 1-week supply
Medical care (first-aid/trauma): NO
Sanitation: NO

This one is a double whammy — a major heat wave leading to electricity outages. Heat waves are likely to be accompanies by a drought, greatly increasing the risk of fire danger in outlying areas.

One assumes that you will have the sense to stay out of the sun as much as possible during this crisis. Your author is no expert on heat wave survival, so a bit of Googling found this great city-government page titled Drought & Extreme Heat Survival. Here’s what they have to say:

Doing too much on a hot day, spending too much time in the sun, or staying too long in an overheated place can cause heat-related illnesses. To avoid developing these illnesses, learn the symptoms of heat disorders and overexposure to the sun, and be ready to give first aid treatment.

Before the extreme heat:

To keep cool air inside and warm air outside…

• Install air conditioning.
• Insulate around window air conditioners, ducts, and doors. Weatherstrip doors and window sills.
• Consider leaving storm windows up all year. They can help keep heat out during the summer months as well as keeping the cold out in the winter.
• Install reflective film or shades on windows. Outdoor louvers or awnings can reduce the heat entering a house by as much as 80 percent.
• Use fans to keep the cool air circulating.
• Plant deciduous trees around your house that block the heat in summer and let the sun shine through in winter.

During periods of extreme heat:

To avoid the effects of heat waves, observe the following Heat Wave Safety Rules:

• Slow down. Your body can’t do its best in high temperatures and humidities, and might do its worst.
• Heed your body’s early warnings that heat syndrome is on the way. Reduce your level of activity immediately and get to a cooler environment.
• Dress for summer. Lightweight, light colored clothing reflects heat and sunlight, and helps your thermoregulatory system maintain normal body temperature.
• Put less fuel on your inner fires. Foods (like proteins) that increase metabolic heat production also increase water loss.
• Don’t dry out. Heat wave weather can wring you out before you know it. Drink plenty of water while the hot spell lasts.
• Stay salty. Unless you’re on a salt-restricted diet, take an occasional salt tablet or some salt solution when you’ve worked up a sweat.
• Avoid thermal shock. Acclimatize yourself gradually to warmer weather. Treat yourself extra gently for those first critical two or three hot days.
• Vary your thermal environment. Physical stress increases with exposure time in heat wave weather. Try to get out of the heat for at least a few hours each day. If you can’t do this at home, drop in on a cool store, restaurant, or theater – anything to keep your exposure time down.
• Don’t get too much sun. Sunburn makes the job of heat dissipation that much more difficult.

An 1895 New madrid qauke registering 6.8 has far greater impact than a similar 1994 quake in California measuring 6.7

Scenario 3 – Earthquake

Description: A magnitude 7.4 earthquake centered on the Hayward fault (Editor’s Note: Clarksville in within the impact range of the New Madrid fault line) strikes the San Francisco Bay Area at 1630PDT (4:30pm) on a weekday in October. One adult from the household is at work on the Peninsula, 20 miles away, when the quake occurs. The other adult is at home in Fremont. One child is at the elementary school walking distance from the house. The other is at preschool 10 miles from home.

The home suffers minor structural damage, but appears fit to occupy. Bay Area bridges are declared unsafe pending inspection; extensive damage to overpasses and roadway make highway travel hazardous or impossible.

Within 4 hours of the quake, 7,000 Bay Area residents are dead and 27,000 require medical attention. The vast majority of these are in East Bay cities within 5 miles (8 km) of the Hayward Fault. Emergency plans go into effect across California, and within 24 hours, martial law is declared in Fremont, Union City, and Oakland.

Scenario profile:
Family separated: YES, worst-case scenario
Immediate evacuation required: NO
Post-event evacuation required: POSSIBLE
Services interrupted: YES (all municipal services including sewer)
Mean time to restoration of services: 10+ days
Period of initial isolation: 7 days
Communications: wireline phone network down hard; mobile voice network extremely unreliable for outdial, indial impossible; mobile data network mostly functional
Secondary risks: Numerous, and all bad.

Requirements for survival:
Environment: YES, night-time lows of ~45F
Electricity: YES
Water (stored): YES
Water (portable): YES
Nutrition (stored): YES
Nutrition (portable): YES
Food preparation: YES
Food preservation: YES, short-term (until fresh/frozen food consumed)
Lighting: YES, but minimal – night-time use only Alternate active communications: YES
Passive communications: YES, need to stay informed
Entertainment: YES
Clothing: YES, replacements for contaminated/damaged clothes
Transportation: YES, local and/or evac
Shelter (permanent): NO
Shelter (portable): YES
Medical needs (maintenance medication): YES, 2-week supply
Medical care (first-aid/trauma): YES
Sanitation: YES

As the observant reader might gather, this is a scenario your correspondent has listed as a primary risk in his preparedness plan. Unfortunately, the death and injury toll numbers aren’t made up or exaggerated. They’re drawn directly from a FEMA study used in CERT training, and they’re not even the worst-case scenario. What follows isn’t the complete response plan, but enough of it to give you a good understanding.

Earthquake damage in California

After the quake hits, each adult moves immediately to a safe location. If mobile-network voice calling is down (very likely) SMS text messaging is used to notify spouse and out-of-state relatives of event and status. If mobile-network data services are functional, email is sent from mobile devices as a backup to SMS messaging. If mobile network is down hard, proceed immediately to nearest pay phone with phone card and call out-of-state contacts with event and status. (Multiple pay phone locations marked on emergency maps in all preparedness kits.)

Each adult then moves quickly to secure their location and ensure access to disaster supplies. The person at home immediately performs a rapid structural assessment. (Assume that both adults have self-treatable minor injuries, at worst.) If the house looks safe for the moment, homebody executes the following tasks:

• NatGas to OFF (wrench and/or emergency tool in multiple locations)
• Water to OFF at master valve (mandatory) and curbside valve (optional)
• Master power breaker to OFF, individual circuit breakers to OFF
• Pull emergency release on garage door and open manually if possible; move car out of garage into driveway
• Relocate containerized camping gear (incl. clothing duffel), go-packs and bicycles to back yard
• Relocate documents container and firearms to secure location
• Relocate fire extinguishers to back yard
• Relocate ice, frozen and refrigerated goods to 5-day coolers in back yard
• Relocate certain kitchen appliances, canned and dry food supplies from kitchen cupboards to back yard
• Advise contacts of status, and intent to retrieve older child from school
• Retrieve older child from elementary school, return home
• Advise contacts of successful retrieval of older child from school, status of child at preschool (unknown/unretrieved, etc.), advise other adult of any aid needed at school
• Enlist older child in setting up temporary camp, kitchen, sanitation station in back yard

The adult at work on the Peninsula secures the work location and activates the company disaster plan. If the parking structure is intact, relocate vehicle to secure location. For safety and security reasons, travel is deferred until at least 0100PDT/day2. “Combat nap” time after setting up overnight watch schedule. Relocate to Fremont, taking at least one other Fremont-bound employee as a passenger. Note: do not issue firearms to unqualified passengers. Drop passenger at safe point near destination, review emergency-contact procedures in case retrieval is required.

Three of four family members rendezvous at home by 0400PDT/day2. “Combat naps” for adults. Refuel vehicle from emergency reserve, assess situation in Fremont using all available info sources, plan retrieval of fourth family member to start at first light (0630PDT/day2). Execute retrieval op, verify that disaster plan is being executed correctly at preschool for remaining kids. Provide first aid as needed, leave emergency food/water supplies if required. Return to home.

I’m going to truncate the explanation of this plan at this point, as it then goes into plenty more detail not necessarily useful to this conversation, such as CERT operations and camp management.

Something bad is going to happen, and there’s nothing you can do to stop it.

Preparing to deal with a disaster is like going off of a ski jump. If you put off your planning until things start happening, it’s far too late to make much of a difference. Once you’re headed down that ski jump, the time for planning and preparation is over.

On the other hand, being prepared for disaster does not have to be time-consuming or expensive. In this multi-part series of DailyKos Diaries, I will share with you, dear reader, many of the lessons I’ve learned regarding the most effective ways to prepare for an emergency.

This is the first installment in a multi-part series on personal disaster preparedness. Your humble correspondent is a Silicon Valley technical executive with both professional and personal experience in risk assessment and disaster-readiness planning. Links to reference materials, including planning guides and reference information, will be found at the end of the final Diaries in this series.

Tornados pose a constant threat to Middle Tennessee

Series Index: Are YOU ready for disaster?

1. Assess your risks!
2. Plan to survive! (part A)
3. Plan to survive! (part B)
4. Emergency gear and supplies
5. Material preparations continued; Conclusion

When disaster strikes, will you be prepared?

Despite what you may have gathered from reading guides to readiness from the government, the Red Cross, or other organizations, you should not begin with a spending spree at the local hardware store. When you strip away all of the bureaucrat-speak, there are three basic steps you must follow to be ready for disaster:

1. Assess
2. Plan
3. Prepare

In this installment, we will discuss step 1, assessment of risks.

The psychology of disaster preparedness

In order to effectively prepare for disaster without becoming overwhelmed, you must be able to make realistic judgments about risks. On one hand, it is an effort for most people to “think the unthinkable”, to contemplate scenarios which are far outside the routine of their daily lives. It is difficult for most people to imagine a world where fresh water does not flow from the taps, electricity is something you can’t take for granted, and the grocery store shelves are empty… assuming the stores are even open.

On the other hand, there’s a phenomenon I think of as the “armageddon fallacy”. This is the temptation, once that our Pandora’s Box of fears and concerns has been opened, to imagine extremely unlikely events as real threats. We must be cautious to exercise good judgment when considering risks, as the “armageddon fallacy” is a surprisingly easy trap to fall into. Keep in mind that your plan, at some point, will be shared with friends and family. This incents most people to stay clear of the Crazy Talk Express to Armageddon Town when making a plan.

Assessing your risks: take a look around

Each city, state, and region of the country has its own unique set of risks. For example, your humble correspondent’s home in Fremont, California is unlikely to be threatened by a hurricane — but that home is only a few miles from the Hayward Fault, and surprisingly, is in a “dam failure inundation area”. Many homes in America are subject to hidden or unseen dangers such as this; in the Southwest, for example, the dangers of flash floods in an otherwise arid environment are well known, yet people die (surprised, in many cases) in flash floods every year. (Editor’s Note: Clarksville lies in the flood zone for a potential failure of Kentucky’s Wolf Creek Dam).

Your first task in building a disaster-readiness plan is to assess the risks particular to the areas where you spend significant time. In America’s car-centric suburban culture, many people work 20 miles or more from their home. The risks at work and at home may differ considerably, and should be assessed separately.

Here is a brief listing of risk categories you may find useful in putting together your list of potential emergencies in your area:

• Domestic risks (house fire, carbon monoxide, medical emergency)
• Industrial accident risk (refineries, chemical plants, rail lines transporting hazardous cargo such as liquified chlorine)
• Natural disasters (heat waves, forest/grassland fires, earthquakes, floods, tornadoes, hurricanes, tsunamis)
• Secondary disaster risk due to primary natural disaster (e.g. the reservoir dam which may fail in an earthquake and flood Fremont)
• Civil disturbance (riots, terrorist attacks, acts of war)

These risks are listed in the order in which you should consider them. Please note the “civil disturbance” category is last — this is because one of the principal goals of any disaster plan should be to minimize your exposure to civil-disturbance risks. The next installment of this series will discuss the use of risk-avoidance strategies in detail.

A good source for risk information is your city or state Office Of Emergency Services website, or its equivalent. Other good sources for detailed risk information include the following local resources:

• building permit authority
• fire department
• police department and/or sheriff’s office

There exists one more category of risk which you must consider: risks to your freedom of movement. As you go about your business for the next week, consider the following:

• Do you know of any alternate routes between work and home?
• Does your primary route include bridges or tunnels
• Does your primary route pass under any high-voltage power lines?
• Do you regularly drive past refineries, chemical plants, or rail lines carrying tank cars?
• Does your neighborhood have above- or below-ground power distribution?
• If you need to leave your city or region, how many routes can you think of without consulting a map?
• Do you have reasonably current paper map of your region in each of your family vehicles?

Homework time!

Your mission, should you choose to accept it, is to make a list of as many disaster risks as you can think of. Get your significant other or your kids involved, and make it a competitive event. Be lenient, at first, when considering whether something is a likely risk. Be sure to include all of the places where you might find yourself when disaster strikes — home, work, school, church, shopping, and so forth. Don’t consider the list closed until you’ve visited each of these places and looked, with a critical eye, at the risks we all ignore on a daily basis.

NEXT TIME: Phase 2 of increasing your preparedness: put together a plan for dealing with the risks you consider likely in your locale.

Update [2005-9-9 16:50:27 by AlphaGeek]: By popular demand, expanded the not-intended-to-be-comprehensive list of natural disasters. Added heat wave, forest/grassland fires, and tsunamis.

I was watching StarGate SG-1 when the floor shook. And it wasn’t the surround sound. I stood up as vibrations rattled the front door of the house, coming from that direction. The cats all freaked out and stared in the same unnerving direction I was staring in.

The vibrations grew, and the tremors then dissipated. By coincidence, I heard sirens going off down the road not long afterwards as I listened to the news, and checked online for any reports. Early reports to the United States Geological Survey spilled in from the IL/IN area.

The USGS data reveals that the quake was a shallow one—it’s depth only being 3 miles. Shaking went down even farther—between 7.2 to 9.3 miles. When the quake hit the epicenter at 4:36—the USGS seismographs went off in a frenzy, plotting from stations close by and stations afar. Roughly fifty-two seconds later at 4:37 a.m., the earthquake was felt here in Clarksville, TN.

The association’s Web site said that the main event was followed during each of the next two minutes by lesser 5.2 magnitude quakes, making three events total. On a magnitude 5.4 quake, the shaking is moderate to strong, creating waves that can travel for miles. Damage is usually light, so while it seems immense because of the large area the shaking was felt in, the actual damage was minimized to a localized area.

Preliminary data shows that the probability that these earthquakes will exceed recorded benchmarks in Illinois is highly unlikely for the next fifty years. Quakes in the area occur randomly on infrequent occasions. The earthquake was felt as far away as Shawnee, KS, 375 miles away.

Earthquakes in the Illinois Basin, also known as the Ozark Dome, border a greater area of seismic activity—the New Madrid fault zone. The quake was 131 miles from St. Louis, MO., which is only 70 miles west of the historic site of the New Madrid quakes responsible for the creation of Reelfoot Lake.

Of much greater risk, is the New Madrid seismic zone, an area overdue for a large tremblor. A historic map of seismic activity in the Illinois quake reveals a lot of smaller quakes that have occurred on the New Madrid Fault since 1990. These smaller earthquakes are not usually felt. In all likelihood, the activity will probably occur along the New Madrid fault line, with prominent cities like Memphis right on top of it.

It is typical of earthquakes that occur in the central U.S. and east of the Rockies that they are often felt over an area ten times as broad as those on the west coast, according to the United States Geological Survey. The largest earthquake to hit Illinois was also a magnitude 5.4 in 1968.

Now would be a good time to add earthquake insurance if you don’t have it.

NOTE: A 4.5 aftershock was recorded at approximately 10:45 a.m. CST

At approximately 4:36 a.m this morning, a 5.4 magnitude earthquake located near Gards Point Illinois rattled buildings and caused minor damage. The quake was felt as far as the Chicago area, and even into Arkansas. The earthquake was easily felt in Clarksville, Tennessee as it was reported by multiple callers to 911, and by police officers over the public safety radio system.The quake occurred on a fault line adjacent to the New Madrid fault.

The New Madrid has been quiet for over a century, but is notorious for its devastating clusters of quakes in 1811-1812.

Here’s some information on the quake from the USGS Web site.

There have been 2000+ reports from people feeling the quake around the country, with a few from Clarksville.

Earthquakes are one of multiple scenarios that Clarksville area emergency preparedness officials, including the Red Cross, prepare and train for.

Here’s a little bit of history on the New Madrid seismic area:

The New Madrid Seismic Zone is made up of reactivated faults that formed when North America began to split or rift apart during the breakup of the supercontinent Rodinia in the Neoproterozoic Era (about 750 million years ago). The resulting Midcontinent Rift System failed but remained as a scar or zone of weakness. The area was then flooded by an ancient ocean, depositing layers of sediment on the rift. Since the 1970s, thousands of earthquakes have been recorded in the New Madrid seismic zone.

In 1974, instruments were installed in and around the area to monitor seismic activity. Since then, more than 4,000 earthquakes have been recorded, most of which are too small to be felt. On average, one earthquake per year is large enough to be felt in the area.

In studying maps of quake epicenters, two trends are apparent. First is the general northeast-southwest trend paralleling the trend of the Reelfoot Rift. The second is the intense cross trend (northwest to southeast) that occurs just southwest of New Madrid. This second trend coincides with an intrusive igneous body which lies deeply buried beneath the sediments of the rift zone. Several other bodies of deeply buried intrusive rock are known to exist within the seismic zone. The depths of these igneous rock bodies closely corresponds to the depth of the seismic activity.
1811/1812 earthquake series

Looking at those early 1800 quakes:
* December 16, 1811, 0815 UTC (2:15 a.m.); 7.7 magnitude; epicenter in northeast Arkansas. It caused only slight damage to man-made structures, mainly because of the sparse population in the epicentral area. However, landslides and geological changes occurred along the Mississippi River, and large localized waves were caused by fissures opening and closing below the Earth’s surface.

* December 16, 1811, 1415 UTC (8:15 a.m.); 7.0 magnitude; epicenter in northeast Arkansas.This shock followed the first earthquake by six hours.

* January 23, 1812, 1500 UTC (9 a.m.); 7.6 magnitude; epicenter in the Missouri Bootheel. The meizoseismal area was characterized by general ground warping, ejections, fissuring, severe landslides, and caving of stream banks.

* February 7, 1812 (the New Madrid Earthquake), 0945 UTC (4:45 a.m.); 7.9 magnitude; epicenter near New Madrid, Missouri. New Madrid was destroyed. At St. Louis, Missouri, many houses were damaged severely, and their chimneys were thrown down. The meizoseismal area was characterized by general ground warping, ejections, fissuring, severe landslides, and caving of stream banks.

Geologic effects of the New Madrid quakes:

Large areas sank into the earth, fissures opened, lakes permanently drained, new lakes were formed, and forests were destroyed over an area of 150,000 acres (600 km²). Many houses at New Madrid were thrown down. “Houses, gardens, and fields were swallowed up,” one source notes. But fatalities and damage were low, because the area was sparsely settled.

The earthquakes were felt as far away as New York City and Boston, Massachusetts, where churchbells rang.

This series of temblors caused permanent changes in the course of the Mississippi River, which appeared to flow backward. Because of the change in the course of the Mississippi River, land was cut off from counties by the river and wound up on the other side of the new riverbed, on the other side of the Mississippi. The settlement of Reverie, Tennessee, in Tipton County was cut off and placed on the western bank of the Mississippi River on the Arkansas side.

Along the Tennessee/Arkansas state line, geological features are still present almost 200 years after the events, showing the former course of the Mississippi River as it was before the 1811/1812 earthquakes.

The potential for the recurrence of large earthquakes and their impact today on densely populated cities in and around the seismic zone has generated much research devoted to understanding earthquakes. Establishing the probability for an earthquake of a given magnitude is an inexact science. By studying evidence of past quakes and closely monitoring ground motion and current earthquake activity, scientists attempt to understand their causes, recurrence rates, ground motion and disaster mitigation. This is the potential impact area of the New Madrid fault:

The probability of magnitude 6.0 or greater in the near future in the New Madrid fault area is considered significant; a 90% chance of such an earthquake by 2040 has been given. In the June 23, 2005, issue of the journal Nature, the odds of another 8.0 event within 50 years were estimated to be between 7 and 10 percent.

Because of the unconsolidated sediments which are a major part of the underlying geology of the Mississippi embayment, as well as the river sediments along the Mississippi and Ohio River valleys to the north and east (note the red fingers extending up these valleys in the image above), large quakes have the potential for more widespread damage than major quakes on the west coast. Additionally, the area affected will be larger since beyond the rift zone itself there are few other faults to attenuate the seismic waves.

Source material from Wikipedia