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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of June 29th, 2015

 

F&M Investment Services - Raymond James - Clarksville, TNClarksville, TN – The week began with a renewed sense of optimism that a Greek debt deal would be worked out. Sentiment then faded after negotiations with Greece’s creditors broke down, but then hopes continued that a deal would be reached over the weekend.

The economic data were mixed. Home sales figures improved in May. Durable goods orders were disappointing. The estimate of 1Q15 GDP was revised to show a -0.2% annual rate (vs. -0.7% in the second estimate), up 3.0% from a year ago. Note that the estimate of Gross Domestic Income rose at a 1.9% annual rate (+3.7% y/y).

Frazier Allen

Frazier Allen

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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of June 22nd, 2015

 

F&M Investment Services - Raymond James - Clarksville, TNClarksville, TN – In its monetary policy statement, the Federal Open Market Committee recognized that “economic activity has been expanding moderately after having changed little during the first quarter.” Labor market slack has “diminished somewhat.” Growth in consumer spending has been “moderate,” while the housing sector “has shown some improvement.”

In the revised Summary of Economic Projections, Fed officials lowered their forecasts of 2015 GDP growth, but raised slightly their expectations for growth in 2016 and 2017.

Frazier Allen

Frazier Allen

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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of June 14th, 2015

 

F&M Investment Services - Raymond James - Clarksville, TNClarksville, TN – Economists began the week wondering why consumers hadn’t spent the windfall from lower gasoline prices. By the end of the week, we had a partial answer. Retail sales rose strongly in May, as expected. More importantly, we had upward revisions to the data for March and April.

The Bureau of Census also released its quarterly survey of services. These two reports paint a brighter consumer spending outlook and imply an upward revision to the estimate of 1Q15 GDP growth (the second estimate showed a -0.7% annual rate, but should be revised to show a much more modest decline or perhaps a slight increase).

Frazier Allen

Frazier Allen

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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of June 10th, 2015

 

F&M Investment Services - Raymond James - Clarksville, TNClarksville, TN – The economic data reports were mixed, but nonfarm payrolls rose more than expected (+280,000) in the initial estimate for May. Seasonal adjustment issues may have been a factor (as education job losses were a lot smaller than usual).

The unemployment rate edged up to 5.5%, but that partly reflected increased labor force participation for teenagers and young adults (also consistent with seasonal adjustment problems).

Mining, which includes energy exploration, fell by 17,200, down 68,400 since December.

Frazier Allen

Frazier Allen

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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of May 31st, 2015

 

F&M Investment Services - Raymond James - Clarksville, TNClarksville, TN – The economic data reports remained mixed. Real GDP fell at a 0.7% annual rate in the second estimate for 1Q15 (vs. +0.2% in the advance estimate). The revision largely reflected slower inventory growth and a wider trade deficit. Consumer spending rose at a 1.8% pace (vs. +1.9%), while business fixed investment fell 2.8% (vs. -3.8%).

There is currently a debate about whether the seasonal pattern in a number of GDP components may have changed post-recession. Unfortunately, we really don’t have enough data to say for sure.

Frazier Allen

Frazier Allen

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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of May 24th, 2015

 

F&M Investment Services - Raymond James - Clarksville, TNClarksville, TN – The economic data reports were mixed. Homebuilder sentiment declined in May, but residential homebuilding was stronger than expected in April.

Some of that reflects a rebound from bad weather, but it’s also a consequence of the high level of volatility in the multifamily sector (single-family permits were higher, but not exactly booming). Consumer price inflation remained negative on a year-over-year basis (-0.2%), but core inflation rose slightly more than anticipated.

Frazier Allen

Frazier Allen

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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of May 17th, 2015

 

F&M Investment Services - Raymond James - Clarksville, TNClarksville, TN – The mid-month economic data disappointed. Retail sales were weaker than anticipated in April. Industrial production fell short of expectations. Consumer sentiment slid in the mid-May assessment.

However, weekly claims for unemployment benefits remained remarkably low. The reports on import prices and producer prices continued to show disinflationary pressures.

Real GDP for the euro area rose 0.4% q/q (a 1.7% annual rate) in the flash estimate for the first quarter. Bond yields in Europe moved higher, but seemed to meet some resistance.

Frazier Allen

Frazier Allen

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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of May 10th, 2015

 

F&M Investment Services - Raymond James - Clarksville, TNClarksville, TN – The April employment report was in line with expectations. Details suggested: 1) a rebound from March weather effects; 2) some moderation in the underlying pace of job growth (relative to the very brisk pace of 4Q14); and 3) a very gradual pace of reduction in labor market slack.

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 223,000, while the weather-restrained March increase was revised down to +85,000 (from +126,000) – leaving an average monthly gain of 154,000 for March and April. The unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 5.4%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.1%, up 2.2% year-over-year (still lackluster).

Frazier Allen

Frazier Allen

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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of May 6th, 2015

 

F&M Investment Services - Raymond James - Clarksville, TNClarksville, TN – GDP growth slowed to a 0.2% annual rate in the advance estimate for 1Q15, reflecting a variety of restraints (weather, West Coast port delays, the strong dollar, and a contraction in energy exploration), many of which are likely to be transitional. Consumer spending rose at a 1.9% pace (vs. +4.4% in 4Q14). Business investment fell, with “mining exploration, shafts, and wells” falling at a 48.7% annual rate.

Inventories rose more than anticipated, adding 0.7 percentage point to growth. Net exports subtracted 1.3 percentage points. Personal income was flat in March, but inflation-adjusted disposable income rose at a 6.2% annual rate in 1Q15 (which is likely to support consumer spending growth in 2Q15).

Frazier Allen

Frazier Allen

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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of April 28th, 2015

 

F&M Investment Services - Raymond James - Clarksville, TNClarksville, TN – The economic calendar was light. Existing home sales were stronger than anticipated in March, but new home sales fell far short of expectations. Durable goods orders jumped 4.0%, but that reflected a surge in aircraft orders (which tend to be erratic). Ex-transportation, orders fell 0.2%.

Orders for core capital goods (nondefense and excluding aircraft) fell 0.5%, the seventh consecutive monthly decline. Unfilled orders (ex-transportation) fell further (not a good sign), while the inventory-to-shipment ratio continued to trend higher – both of these indicators bear watching, but neither is at a dangerous level.

Frazier Allen

Frazier Allen

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