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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of January 15th, 2017

 

F&M Investment Services - Raymond James - Clarksville, TNClarksville, TN – The economic calendar was relatively thin. Small business optimism rose sharply in December.  Growth in retail sales was concentrated in autos and gasoline – mixed and generally flat otherwise (with unusual softness in food) – but it was still a relatively good quarter overall. 

Department store sales were weak, but that is a long-term trend (not necessarily a sign of consumer weakness). The PPI was largely in line with expectations, reflecting moderate pipeline inflationary pressures (consistent with further Fed rate hikes in the months ahead).

Frazier Allen

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Frazier Allen: Dealing with Dementia

 

F&M Investment Services - Raymond James - Clarksville, TNClarksville, TN – “I saw the bravest man in the world playing the hardest role of his life,” Robin Williams’ widow wrote in October of her husband’s dementia and the months leading up to his death in 2014. When his anxiety, personality changes and memory problems began three years ago, a “foundation of friendship and love was our armor,” Susan Schneider Williams said.

Her story likely strikes a chord among those caring for a loved one with dementia. The Alzheimer’s Association estimates that more than 15 million Americans currently are. 

Dealing with Dementia

Dealing with Dementia

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Frazier Allen: A Retirement Savings Exit Strategy

 

F&M Investment Services - Raymond James - Clarksville, TNClarksville, TN – Every day, an estimated 10,000 people reach the IRS trigger age when they must begin withdrawing money from their retirement plans. If you’re among them, it’s wise to develop a strategy.

Once you hit 70½, IRS rules call for required minimum distributions (RMDs) every year on all of your traditional, simplified employee pension (SEP) and SIMPLE IRAs, as well as employer-sponsored plans. Roth IRAs are exempt.    

Create a plan to withdraw your minimum distributions on your terms, while complying with Uncle Sam’s.

Create a plan to withdraw your minimum distributions on your terms, while complying with Uncle Sam’s.

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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of December 11th, 2016

 

F&M Investment Services - Raymond James - Clarksville, TNClarksville, TN – Italy voted “no” on its constitutional referendum and Prime Minister Renzi resigned. South Korea’s president was impeached. The European Central Bank extended its asset purchase program to the end of 2017, but will reduce the monthly pace of purchases in April.

None of that disturbed U.S. equity market investors who continued to enjoy the Trump sizzle. After showing some signs of stability, bond yields again moved higher.

Frazier Allen

Frazier Allen

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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of December 6th, 2016

 

F&M Investment Services - Raymond James - Clarksville, TNClarksville, TN – There was a ton of economic data, most of it consistent with moderately strong growth in the near term. Nonfarm payrolls rose in line with expectations in November.

The unemployment rate fell to 4.6% (the lowest since August 2007), but that was partly due to a drop in labor force participation. Average hourly earnings fell 0.1%, following a 0.4% rise in October, up 2.5% y/y (still trending higher, but more moderately than it appeared a month ago).

Frazier Allen

Frazier Allen

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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of November 28th, 2016

 

F&M Investment Services - Raymond James - Clarksville, TNClarksville, TN – Next week, fresh economic figures will arrive, but none of the reports, including the November employment report, are expected to sway the Fed away from raising short-term interest rates on December 14th.

Job growth is expected to have been moderately strong in November, but keep a close eye on average hourly earnings, which have suggested the wage pressures are building (note that the average hourly earnings figures can be quirky – they are often revised the next month – but the trend is higher).

Frazier Allen

Frazier Allen

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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of November 7th, 2016

 

F&M Investment Services - Raymond James - Clarksville, TNClarksville, TN – The Federal Open Market Committee left short-term interest rates unchanged, as expected, and the policy statement was a near photocopy of the one in September.

The FOMC noted that “the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has continued to strengthen,” but for the time being, officials decided “to wait for some further evidence of continued progress towards our objectives.”

The October Employment Report was largely in line with expectations. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 161,000 (median forecast: +175,000), but the two previous months were revised a net 44,000 higher.

Frazier Allen

Frazier Allen

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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of November 2nd, 2016

 

F&M Investment Services - Raymond James - Clarksville, TNClarksville, TN – Real GDP rose at a 2.9% annual rate in the advance estimate of third quarter growth, a bit on the high side of expectations. However, the economy was not as strong as the headline figure suggests (similarly, growth over the four previous quarters was not as weak as the GDP number implies).

Inventories, which had been slowing over the five previous quarters (subtracting from GDP growth), rose at a faster pace (adding 0.6 percentage point to overall growth). Net exports (a narrower trade deficit) added 0.8 percentage point.

Frazier Allen

Frazier Allen

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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of October 28th, 2016

 

F&M Investment Services - Raymond James - Clarksville, TNClarksville, TN – The recent economic data reports have done little to alter the overall picture (moderate growth, low inflation). The Fed’s Beige Book noted that economic activity has continued to expand, with most Fed districts describing growth as “modest” or “moderate.”

In mid-September, nine of the 12 district banks had requested an increase in the discount rate (the rate the Fed charges banks for short-term borrowing) – one more than in late July – suggesting internal pressures for higher short-term interest rates at the Fed.

Frazier Allen

Frazier Allen

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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of October 19th, 2016

 

F&M Investment Services - Raymond James - Clarksville, TNClarksville, TN – Minutes of the September 20-21 policy meeting showed that Federal Open Market Committee members were divided on whether to raise short-term interest rates, and most of those voting to wait felt that it was “a close call.”

Financial markets have increasingly priced in a mid-December rate hike. Amid a thin economic calendar, investors focused on what’s happening in the rest of the world, but also reacted to the initial earnings reports for 3Q16.

Frazier Allen

Frazier Allen

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