Something bad is going to happen, and there’s nothing you can do to stop it.

Preparing to deal with a disaster is like going off of a ski jump. If you put off your planning until things start happening, it’s far too late to make much of a difference. Once you’re headed down that ski jump, the time for planning and preparation is over.

On the other hand, being prepared for disaster does not have to be time-consuming or expensive. In this multi-part series of DailyKos Diaries, I will share with you, dear reader, many of the lessons I’ve learned regarding the most effective ways to prepare for an emergency.

This is the first installment in a multi-part series on personal disaster preparedness. Your humble correspondent is a Silicon Valley technical executive with both professional and personal experience in risk assessment and disaster-readiness planning. Links to reference materials, including planning guides and reference information, will be found at the end of the final Diaries in this series.

Tornados pose a constant threat to Middle Tennessee

Series Index: Are YOU ready for disaster?

1. Assess your risks!
2. Plan to survive! (part A)
3. Plan to survive! (part B)
4. Emergency gear and supplies
5. Material preparations continued; Conclusion

When disaster strikes, will you be prepared?

Despite what you may have gathered from reading guides to readiness from the government, the Red Cross, or other organizations, you should not begin with a spending spree at the local hardware store. When you strip away all of the bureaucrat-speak, there are three basic steps you must follow to be ready for disaster:

1. Assess
2. Plan
3. Prepare

In this installment, we will discuss step 1, assessment of risks.

The psychology of disaster preparedness

In order to effectively prepare for disaster without becoming overwhelmed, you must be able to make realistic judgments about risks. On one hand, it is an effort for most people to “think the unthinkable”, to contemplate scenarios which are far outside the routine of their daily lives. It is difficult for most people to imagine a world where fresh water does not flow from the taps, electricity is something you can’t take for granted, and the grocery store shelves are empty… assuming the stores are even open.

On the other hand, there’s a phenomenon I think of as the “armageddon fallacy”. This is the temptation, once that our Pandora’s Box of fears and concerns has been opened, to imagine extremely unlikely events as real threats. We must be cautious to exercise good judgment when considering risks, as the “armageddon fallacy” is a surprisingly easy trap to fall into. Keep in mind that your plan, at some point, will be shared with friends and family. This incents most people to stay clear of the Crazy Talk Express to Armageddon Town when making a plan.

Assessing your risks: take a look around

Each city, state, and region of the country has its own unique set of risks. For example, your humble correspondent’s home in Fremont, California is unlikely to be threatened by a hurricane — but that home is only a few miles from the Hayward Fault, and surprisingly, is in a “dam failure inundation area”. Many homes in America are subject to hidden or unseen dangers such as this; in the Southwest, for example, the dangers of flash floods in an otherwise arid environment are well known, yet people die (surprised, in many cases) in flash floods every year. (Editor’s Note: Clarksville lies in the flood zone for a potential failure of Kentucky’s Wolf Creek Dam).

Your first task in building a disaster-readiness plan is to assess the risks particular to the areas where you spend significant time. In America’s car-centric suburban culture, many people work 20 miles or more from their home. The risks at work and at home may differ considerably, and should be assessed separately.

Here is a brief listing of risk categories you may find useful in putting together your list of potential emergencies in your area:

• Domestic risks (house fire, carbon monoxide, medical emergency)
• Industrial accident risk (refineries, chemical plants, rail lines transporting hazardous cargo such as liquified chlorine)
• Natural disasters (heat waves, forest/grassland fires, earthquakes, floods, tornadoes, hurricanes, tsunamis)
• Secondary disaster risk due to primary natural disaster (e.g. the reservoir dam which may fail in an earthquake and flood Fremont)
• Civil disturbance (riots, terrorist attacks, acts of war)

These risks are listed in the order in which you should consider them. Please note the “civil disturbance” category is last — this is because one of the principal goals of any disaster plan should be to minimize your exposure to civil-disturbance risks. The next installment of this series will discuss the use of risk-avoidance strategies in detail.

A good source for risk information is your city or state Office Of Emergency Services website, or its equivalent. Other good sources for detailed risk information include the following local resources:

• building permit authority
• fire department
• police department and/or sheriff’s office

There exists one more category of risk which you must consider: risks to your freedom of movement. As you go about your business for the next week, consider the following:

• Do you know of any alternate routes between work and home?
• Does your primary route include bridges or tunnels
• Does your primary route pass under any high-voltage power lines?
• Do you regularly drive past refineries, chemical plants, or rail lines carrying tank cars?
• Does your neighborhood have above- or below-ground power distribution?
• If you need to leave your city or region, how many routes can you think of without consulting a map?
• Do you have reasonably current paper map of your region in each of your family vehicles?

Homework time!

Your mission, should you choose to accept it, is to make a list of as many disaster risks as you can think of. Get your significant other or your kids involved, and make it a competitive event. Be lenient, at first, when considering whether something is a likely risk. Be sure to include all of the places where you might find yourself when disaster strikes — home, work, school, church, shopping, and so forth. Don’t consider the list closed until you’ve visited each of these places and looked, with a critical eye, at the risks we all ignore on a daily basis.

NEXT TIME: Phase 2 of increasing your preparedness: put together a plan for dealing with the risks you consider likely in your locale.

Update [2005-9-9 16:50:27 by AlphaGeek]: By popular demand, expanded the not-intended-to-be-comprehensive list of natural disasters. Added heat wave, forest/grassland fires, and tsunamis.

These and other factors that make Wolf Creek one of the five worst dams in the country, one with a high risk of failure. If Wolf Creek fails, parts of Clarksville will be underwater in about 33 hours.

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’ Major Rehabilitation Report issued in 2006 recommended a $306 million fix for the Wolf Creek Dam, a project that began over a year ago and is expected to take four years to complete. (At right, workers inside the dam effecting repairs)

Failure of the Wolf Creek dam is scenario on the top of the list for Emergency Management officials at the federal, state and local levels; they meet weekly to address a multitude of issues that could affect our community at large, coordinating services and support systems for a safe and fast response if the worst should happen.

For Cecil Stout, Director of Emergency Services for the Clarksville-Montgomery County Chapter of the American Red Cross, Wolf Creek is just one more thing to worry about and plan for, not just for the enormity of response such a disaster would require. The Red Cross office and thousands of homes and businesses along the city’s rivers could be underwater if the dam fails. Pictured at right, Logistics Specialist Mike Vogt (l) and Stout (r), looking over a map of potential Wolf Creek flood zones.

Stout said his agency continually contracts with sites that can operate as full service shelters in times of emergency — be it flood, tornado, or any other disaster. Start-up supplies are continually stocked and staged around the city, networks and collaborations to meet community needs already exist and are continually nurtured. His volunteer staff is trained and continues to train for management such disaster scenarios. FEMA, TEMA and other local response agencies have disaster management plans in place for immediate implementation if warranted.

Stout, and logistics coordinator Mike Vogt , have the potential flood area outlined on an oversized map in their office hallway. They already know they would have to evacuate Red Cross headquarters and move to a pre-planned alternate base of operations during such an emergency. They already know that travel in and around the city, and therefore access to emergency services and supplies, would be significantly disrupted.

“My worst nightmare is that the dam and a seismic event like New Madrid would happen at the same time,” Stout said.

Disaster preparedness is a complex process

“We may have to shelter people, feed them, handle communications that will connect them with other family members, and assist with basic needs and links to to other agencies also providing services.” Stout noted that Red Cross Disaster Action teams are part of the first response in many disasters, supporting victims, firefighters, rescue crews and police. But the job doesn’t stop there; Red Cross social services makes referrals to other agencies that can assist with more permanent solutions for displaced disaster victims.

Stout, Vogt, Red Cross volunteers, multiple regional Emergency Management staff and Fort Campbell teamed up recently for back-to-back mock disaster drills for two potential mass casualty events: an F-5 tornado, and the detonation of a “dirty bomb.” Both drills took place on Fort Campbell and across north Clarksville. “Both were excellent opportunities to test ourselves,” Stout said. The results from both drills confirmed the fact that “training” pays big dividends in terms of disaster preparedness and response.

And every time Stout and Vogt move through the Red Cross office, they pass by the wall with the map and the flood stage markings.

A bit of Wolf Creek history

Wolf Creek dam was designed and built over a period from 1938 to 1952 as a flood control project, with the added benefits of hydro-power production and recreation via the reservoir (a.k.a Lake Cumberland) created by dam construction. The lake is largest reservoir east of the Mississippi River and includes 1796 feet of concrete dam and 3940 feet of clay embankments. Highway 127 in Kentucky runs across the top of the dam. The dam has been operating with a reduced level since 2005, reducing risk to people and property but also impacting recreational use of the lake. Currently Lake Cumberland is holding at a 680 foot level, but that could be reduced at any time if further problems develop. The Corp monitors the status of the dam and nine others on the Cumberland River system for any change in status that would affect public safety.

The trigger for the problems at Wolf Creek Dam lies in its foundation: a limestone base riddled with cavities and caves and prone to erosion. Limestone is “soluble in weak acid,” and over time that erosion has weakened the very base that supports the dam. Driving through any road cuts in the region offers a first-hand view of how limestones decays and breaks apart. “Karst topography” is a three-dimensional landscape shaped by the gradual dissolution of solid layers of bedrock, often carbonate rocks such as limestone of dolomite, which have distinctive patterns of underground drainage and little or no surface drainage, hence the formation of caves and caverns that undermine the surface, and in this case, the base of the dam.

Serious problems were noted in 1968 when wet areas developed near the base and muddy waters were observed, along with two sinkholes in the embankment, indicators that foundation and dam substances were being washed away by seepage. Emergency action was taken in 1968-69 to fix those problems. A grouting program completed in 1970 injected enough solids into the dam to pave a road six inches thick, 20 feet wide and 5.5 miles long. It solved the problem, and prevented dam failure, until now. Advisors to the Corps recommended construction of a concrete cut-off wall to be build along the axis of the dam under its embankment. In essence, a new barrier to hold back water and stabilize the dam.

Cut-off walls were added to two-thirds of the embankment, a decision some experts felt was “short sighted,” suggesting that eventually, a wall would be needed along the entire length of the embankment. That time has come.

Over the past several years, a combination of visual observations, instrumentational readings, and borings have proven that uncontrolled seepage, which is still occuring, threatens the stability and integrity of the dam.

Peripheral to the structural problems of the dam are other events that could converge to trigger disaster:

• a significant seismic event along the New Madrid Fault could devastate the greater Memphis area but depending on magnitude could be equally disastrous to Clarksville and as far as Wolf Creek.
• a stalled hurricane dumping double-digit rain totals over the region would stress the tributaries feeding the Cumberland River and Lake Cumberland, putting additional pressure on the dam and saturating the land around and beneath it.

So what happens next?

The water level behind the dam is holding at 680 feet, subject to further lowering if the situation warrants. Emergency repairs are underway, with three years (give or take a few months) before the project is done and the dam deemed “safe” again.

Meanwhile, emergency management officials at the federal, state and local level — everyone from FEMA, TEMA, police and fire officials, the Red Cross and others meet regularly to keep tabs on a number of things, including Wolf Creek.

If the Wolf Creek failed, the worst case scenario would be a gradual rise in Cumberland River (and tributary) waters that would bring major flooding to Clarksville within 33 hours. Riverside Drive and all its recreational spots and businesses would be underwater. Bridges would be closed and/or underwater. A number of areas in town would be cut off. Many areas would be completely evacuated. An estimated 3,000 businesses would be affected. Many subdivisions would be flooded or “islanded,” affecting thousands.Water, sewage (waste treatment) and electrical services would be affected in many areas. Should floodwaters travel from the dam to as far as Clarksville, a breach of the Wolf Creek Dam has the potential to affect one million people and thousands of businesses. The dollar value of damage would be staggering.

Emergency management officials note five potential water levels for the Clarksville area, from a modest level one to catastrophic level five. Maps of potential flooding are availabble through links on the Austin Peay State University, Clarksville Red Cross and Wolf Creek Dam websites, with GPS locating that can pinpoint how floodwaters might affect your home and neighborhood.

Even the Red Cross would be relocated since its headquarters off Riverside Drive would be inundated. That’s been planned for, along with a host of responses to projected needs for a potential Wolf Creek Dam disaster.

Should trouble develop at the Wolf Creek Dam, the Emergency Broadcast System would be activated over all weather, radio and TV stations and emergency management offices, beginning with those located closest to the dam and working downstream through Nashville and working downstream. Local emergency management teams are responsible for local notifications and evacuation plans.

Stout suggests that just as residents prepare for severe storms including tornados, they should be aware of the potential of a problem with Wolf Creek and prepare for that possibility as well..

Ward 2 City Councilwoman Deanna McLaughlin has released the final version of the Strategic Plan which was discussed at the summit during the weekend of June 10. Immediately after the summit, officials released a 21-point strategy. The document Councilwoman McLaughlin released is a much more detailed version of the initial report.

Areas of major focus were identified as Economic development and job creation, Infrastructure planning and development, Operations and communications, Public safety, Recreation and parks, and Standards and beautification. Each of the 21 points of the strategy touches at least one of these areas.

Opportunities and threats were also discussed. Opportunities for development include planning for more green space, building a better relationship with Fort Campbell, promoting tourism, and constructing a possible juvenile detention center. Also on the list of opportunities is the now-defunct events center planning.

City of Clarksville Strategic Plan – Final – Includes goals and Objectives listed by strategic initiatives

McLaughlin said that this document would be discussed at a town hall meeting on Tuesday, July 31st from 6:00 PM to 7:00 PM at Park Lane church of the Nazarene. Ward 3 City Councilman James Lewis will also be available to discuss the Strategic Plan. It is not yet known if other members will be present. McLaughlin encourages anyone interested to attend.

For those who are unable to read the PDF file, a free copy of the Adobe reader can be obtained at www.adobe.com. Councilwoman McLaughlin also said that there would be printed copies of the document available at the town hall meeting.

Twenty Threats to the city’s strategic plan were listed as well. They include: lawsuits from city employees, the possible failure of Wolf Creek Dam, gang activity, a strained infrastructure, a poor reputation of the city in general, and an apparent lack of qualified candidates for some council wards. These items and a lack of well-paying jobs in the area increased stress on the city’s infrastructure and its leadership. A “north and south” division is also somewhat apparent, as indicated in the ‘threat’ column.

Internal strengths and weaknesses were discussed as well.

Details of the 21-point strategic plan are listed one item per page. Some of the more nebulous goals are better described in the document, which outlines specific bullet points to help accomplish each goal. Goal four, the Capital Projects Revenue Districts is listed succinctly enough with a single notation: “Pass final council vote: complete.” Other items are discussed in greater detail.

Projects number eight and fifteen, which calls for the city to optimize efficiency of current roadways and intersections, identifies four major intersections which will be impacted. Two are on Madison Street; Madison at Richview Road and Madison at Martin Luther King Blvd (Highway 76 Connector). The other intersections are at Highways 41 and 13 (near the Fairgrounds) and the intersection of Wilma Rudolph Blvd. and Dunbar Cave. A timing phase plan for 19 intersections will be implemented by the end of next year.

A committee to review the Charter will also be established. Red light cameras will be studied. Commuter rail service and community recreation needs will also be addressed. Blighted buildings and crime watch enhancements round out the list.

The map outlines specific areas that would be affected should the dam fail. Nearly the entire area around the Two Rivers Center would be flooded, as would the Clarksville Fairgrounds, Jostens Printing and Publishing, and the new sports center for Clarksville Academy. Land near Big West Fork Creek, the Smith Station area, and several neighborhoods near the Red River would also be affected.

Since the water levels of the dam have been lowered to help reduce stress on the dam, it’s not likely that the Cumberland River would crest over Riverside Drive.

Earlier this year, the United States Corps of Engineers observed increasing seepage around the dam and deemed the dam a “high-risk” for failure.

The website of the map is http://gisweb.apsu.edu/wolfcreek/viewer.htm