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The Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of December 11th

Weekly Market Snapshot

Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist

Scott J. Brown Ph.D., Chief Economist Raymond James Investment Services
Scott J. Brown Ph.D., Chief Economist Raymond James Investment Services

The focus remained on Europe, as leaders struggled to come up with a fiscal compact. Results were mixed, with the euro zone economies reaching some agreement, but the United Kingdom opted out. That may set up future conflicts between the European Union and the euro zone countries embedded in it. As expected, the ECB lowered short-term interest rates and took further efforts to boost liquidity. However, ECB President Draghi said that the markets were wrong to interpret his previous comments as signaling that the ECB would do a lot more. Market participants still expect the ECB to come through eventually, despite its reluctance to take on the role of lender of last resort.

The economic calendar was thin. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index slipped to 52.0 in November, vs. 52.9 in October, consistent with lackluster-to-moderate growth in the overall economy. Consumer sentiment improved in the mid-month assessment for December.

Next week, there are a number of important economic data releases, with a focus on retail sales and the CPI. The Fed policy meeting result will carry much more weight. The Fed is widely expected to leave short-term interest rates unchanged, but there is some speculation that it may undertake another round of asset purchases (mortgage-backed securities this time) or alter its communications (tying its commitment to keep rates low to specific economic conditions). This change may occur either at this meeting or (more likely) at the policy meeting in January.

Indices

  Last Last Week YTD return %
DJIA 11997.70 12020.03 3.63%
NASDAQ 2596.38 2626.20 -2.13%
S&P 500 1234.35 1244.58 -1.85%
MSCI EAFE 1421.67 1431.70 -14.27%
Russell 2000 722.68 730.75 -7.78%

Consumer Money Rates

  Last 1-year ago
Prime Rate 3.25 3.25
Fed Funds 0.07 0.16
30-year mortgage 3.95 4.91

Currencies

  Last 1-year ago
Dollars per British Pound 1.563 1.577
Dollars per Euro 1.333 1.322
Japanese Yen per Dollar 77.730 84.270
Canadian Dollars per Dollar 1.022 1.011
Mexican Peso per Dollar 13.685 12.470

Commodities

  Last 1-year ago
Crude Oil 98.34 88.28
Gold 1709.28 1381.94

Bond Rates

  Last 1-month ago
2-year treasury 0.22 0.29
10-year treasury 1.99 2.34
10-year municipal (TEY) 3.08 3.70

Treasury Yield Curve – 12/9/2011

 Treasury Yield Curve – 12/9/2011

S&P Sector Performance (YTD) – 12/9/2011

S&P Sector Performance (YTD) – 12/9/2011  

Economic Calendar

December 13th

 — 

Retail Sales (November)
Business Inventories (October)
FOMC Policy Decision (no press briefing)
December 14th

 — 

Import Prices (November)
December 15th

 — 

Jobless Claims (week ending December 10th)
Producer Price Index (November)
Empire State Manufacturing Index (December)
Industrial Production (November)
Philadelphia Fed Index (December)
December 16th

 — 

Consumer Price Index (November)
December 20th

 — 

Building Permits, Housing Starts (November)
December 21st

 — 

Existing Home Sales (November)
December 22nd

 — 

Real GDP (3Q11, 3rd estimate)
Consumer Sentiment (December)
Leading Economic Indicators (November)
December 23rd

 — 

Personal Income and Spending (November)
Durable Goods Orders (November)
New Home Sales (November)
December 26th

 — 

Christmas Holiday (markets closed)
January 24th-25th

 — 

FOMC Policy Meeting
Frazier Allen
Frazier Allenhttp://www.raymondjames.com/frazierallen
Frazier Allen, WMS, CRPS, Financial Advisor with F&M Bank 50 Franklin Street | Clarksville, TN 37040 | 931-553-2048
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