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The Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of April 15th, 2012
Posted By Frazier Allen On Sunday, April 15, 2012 @ 2:00 pm In Business | No Comments
Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist
The stock market began the week with a (negative) reaction to the March Employment Report (which was softer than expected, but not terrible). Worries about Europe and global growth also weighed against market sentiment – the fear subsided a bit on Wednesday and Thursday, but appeared to return on Friday. Fed officials suggest that monetary policy was conditional on how the economy develops – although no action is expected anytime soon.
The economic data remained consistent with moderate growth and moderate inflation. As expected, the seasonal adjustment dampened the impact of higher gasoline prices in the Consumer Price Index. The core CPI rose 2.3% y/y. The Fed’s Beige Book noted “modest to moderate” economic growth.
Next week, the retail sales report will likely set the tone for the week, although we could see market reactions to any surprises in the other data reports. Fed officials will go quiet (there’s an unofficial blackout period, a week before and after policy meetings, where officials won’t comment on the economy or monetary policy).
Earnings and Europe are expected to remain important factors for the financial markets.
|Last||Last Week||YTD return %|
|Dollars per British Pound||1.596||1.627|
|Dollars per Euro||1.318||1.449|
|Japanese Yen per Dollar||80.910||83.730|
|Canadian Dollars per Dollar||0.995||0.961|
|Mexican Peso per Dollar||13.043||11.817|
|10-year municipal (TEY)||3.14||3.42|
|Retail Sales (March)
Empire State Manufacturing Index (April)
Business inventories (February)
Homebuilder Sentiment (April)
|Building Permits, Housing Starts (March)
IMF World Economic Outlook
Industrial Production (March)
|Jobless Claims (week ending April 14th)
Philadelphia Fed Index (April)
Existing Home Sales (March)
Leading Economic Indicators (March)
|New Home Sales (March)
Consumer Confidence (April)
FOMC Meeting Begins
|FOMC Policy Decision
Bernanke Press Briefing
|Real GDP (1Q12, advance estimate)|
|Employment Report (April)|
US government bonds and treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. US government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Treasury bills are certificates reflecting short-term (less than one year) obligations of the US government.
Commodities trading is generally considered speculative because of the significant potential for investment loss. Markets for commodities are likely to be volatile and there may be sharp price fluctuations even during periods when prices overall are rising. Specific sector investing can be subject to different and greater risks than more diversified investments.
Tax Equiv Muni yields (TEY) assume a 35% tax rate on triple-A rated, tax-exempt insured revenue bonds.
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Data source: Bloomberg, as of close of business April 4th, 2012.
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