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The Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of April 15th, 2012

Posted By Frazier Allen On Sunday, April 15, 2012 @ 2:00 pm In Business | No Comments

Weekly Market Snapshot

Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist

Scott J. Brown Ph.D., Chief Economist Raymond James Investment Services

Scott J. Brown Ph.D., Chief Economist Raymond James Investment Services

The stock market began the week with a (negative) reaction to the March Employment Report (which was softer than expected, but not terrible). Worries about Europe and global growth also weighed against market sentiment – the fear subsided a bit on Wednesday and Thursday, but appeared to return on Friday. Fed officials suggest that monetary policy was conditional on how the economy develops – although no action is expected anytime soon.

The economic data remained consistent with moderate growth and moderate inflation. As expected, the seasonal adjustment dampened the impact of higher gasoline prices in the Consumer Price Index. The core CPI rose 2.3% y/y. The Fed’s Beige Book noted “modest to moderate” economic growth.

Next week, the retail sales report will likely set the tone for the week, although we could see market reactions to any surprises in the other data reports. Fed officials will go quiet (there’s an unofficial blackout period, a week before and after policy meetings, where officials won’t comment on the economy or monetary policy).

Earnings and Europe are expected to remain important factors for the financial markets.

Indices

  Last Last Week YTD return %
DJIA 12986.58 13074.75 6.29%
NASDAQ 3055.55 3068.09 17.29%
S&P 500 1387.57 1398.96 10.33%
MSCI EAFE 1506.27 1512.53 6.63%
Russell 2000 808.59 820.38 9.13%

Consumer Money Rates

  Last 1-year ago
Prime Rate 3.25 3.25
Fed Funds 0.17 0.09
30-year mortgage 3.90 4.87

Currencies

  Last 1-year ago
Dollars per British Pound 1.596 1.627
Dollars per Euro 1.318 1.449
Japanese Yen per Dollar 80.910 83.730
Canadian Dollars per Dollar 0.995 0.961
Mexican Peso per Dollar 13.043 11.817

Commodities

  Last 1-year ago
Crude Oil 103.64 106.25
Gold 1675.03 1453.45

Bond Rates

  Last 1-month ago
2-year treasury 0.27 0.36
10-year treasury 1.99 2.31
10-year municipal (TEY) 3.14 3.42

Treasury Yield Curve – 4/13/2012

Treasury Yield Curve – 4/13/2012

S&P Sector Performance (YTD) – 4/13/2012

S&P Sector Performance (YTD) – 4/13/2012

Economic Calendar

April 16th

 —

Retail Sales (March)
Empire State Manufacturing Index (April)
Business inventories (February)
Homebuilder Sentiment (April)
April 17th

 —

Building Permits, Housing Starts (March)
IMF World Economic Outlook
Industrial Production (March)
April 18th

 —

Jobless Claims (week ending April 14th)
Philadelphia Fed Index (April)
Existing Home Sales (March)
Leading Economic Indicators (March)
April 24th

 —

New Home Sales (March)
Consumer Confidence (April)
FOMC Meeting Begins
April 25th

 —

FOMC Policy Decision
Bernanke Press Briefing
April 27th

 —

Real GDP (1Q12, advance estimate)
May 4th

 —

Employment Report (April)

Important Disclosures

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. There are special risks involved with global investing related to market and currency fluctuations, economic and political instability, and different financial accounting standards. The above material has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete. There is no assurance that any trends mentioned will continue in the future. While interest on municipal bonds is generally exempt from federal income tax, it may be subject to the federal alternative minimum tax, state or local taxes. In addition, certain municipal bonds (such as Build America Bonds) are issued without a federal tax exemption, which subjects the related interest income to federal income tax. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss.

US government bonds and treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. US government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Treasury bills are certificates reflecting short-term (less than one year) obligations of the US government.

Commodities trading is generally considered speculative because of the significant potential for investment loss. Markets for commodities are likely to be volatile and there may be sharp price fluctuations even during periods when prices overall are rising. Specific sector investing can be subject to different and greater risks than more diversified investments.

Tax Equiv Muni yields (TEY) assume a 35% tax rate on triple-A rated, tax-exempt insured revenue bonds.

Material prepared by Raymond James for use by its financial advisors.

The information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Data source: Bloomberg, as of close of business April 4th, 2012.

©2012 Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. member FINRA [2] / SIPC [3].


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