Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist
Next week, the ISM manufacturing data and the December Employment Report will be important, helping to set the near-term economic outlook (beyond the fiscal cliff).
Seasonal adjustment can be tricky in December, but we should see a moderately strong gain in nonfarm payrolls.
The unemployment rate is expected to be flat or slightly higher.
Congress returns and we may see some leadership changes in the House.
Indices
Last | Last Week | YTD return % | |
DJIA | 13096.31 | 13311.72 | 6.59% |
NASDAQ | 2985.91 | 3050.39 | 14.24% |
S&P 500 | 1418.10 | 1443.69 | 12.28% |
MSCI EAFE | 1609.75 | 1616.95 | 15.52% |
Russell 2000 | 837.40 | 852.49 | 12.41% |
Consumer Money Rates
Last | 1-year ago | |
Prime Rate | 3.25 | 3.25 |
Fed Funds | 0.17 | 0.07 |
30-year mortgage | 3.37 | 3.95 |
Currencies
Last | 1-year ago | |
Dollars per British Pound | 1.607 | 1.566 |
Dollars per Euro | 1.321 | 1.307 |
Japanese Yen per Dollar | 85.980 | 77.830 |
Canadian Dollars per Dollar | 0.995 | 1.020 |
Mexican Peso per Dollar | 13.023 | 14.039 |
Commodities
Last | 1-year ago | |
Crude Oil | 90.87 | 101.34 |
Gold | 1663.05 | 1590.64 |
Bond Rates
Last | 1-month ago | |
2-year treasury | 0.26 | 0.25 |
10-year treasury | 1.71 | 1.62 |
10-year municipal (TEY) | 2.69 | 2.67 |
Treasury Yield Curve – 12/28/2012
S&P Sector Performance (YTD) – 12/28/2012
Economic Calendar
December 31st |
— |
New Year’s Eve (bond market closes early) |
January 1st |
— |
New Year’s Holiday (markets closed) |
January 2nd |
— |
ISM Manufacturing Index (December) |
January 3rd |
— |
ADP Payroll Estimate (December) FOMC Minutes (December 11th-12th) Motor Vehicle Sales (December) |
January 4th |
— |
Employment Report (December) |
January 15th |
— |
Producer Price Index (December) Retail Sales (December) |
January 16th |
— |
Consumer Price Index (December) Industrial Production (December) Fed Beige Book |
January 21st |
— |
MLK, Jr. Holiday (markets closed) |
January 30th |
— |
FOMC Policy Decision (no Bernanke press briefing) |
Important Disclosures
US government bonds and treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. US government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Treasury bills are certificates reflecting short-term (less than one year) obligations of the US government.
Commodities trading is generally considered speculative because of the significant potential for investment loss. Markets for commodities are likely to be volatile and there may be sharp price fluctuations even during periods when prices overall are rising. Specific sector investing can be subject to different and greater risks than more diversified investments.
Tax Equiv Muni yields (TEY) assume a 35% tax rate on triple-A rated, tax-exempt insured revenue bonds.
Material prepared by Raymond James for use by its financial advisors.
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Data source: Bloomberg, as of close of business December 27th, 2012.
©2012 Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. member FINRA / SIPC.