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The Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of January 13th, 2013

Weekly Market Snapshot

Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist

Scott J. Brown Ph.D., Chief Economist Raymond James Investment ServicesThe economic calendar was thin. Jobless claims continued to trend at a moderately low level. The trade deficit widened unexpectedly in November. As a result, net exports are likely to subtract from 4Q12 GDP growth.

With little economic data, the stock market began to focus on earnings reports. President Obama nominated Jack Lew to succeed Timothy Geithner as treasury secretary. The move likely signals an emphasis on upcoming battles. Lew currently serves as Obama’s chief of staff. He also ran the Office of Management and Budget for both Clinton and Obama.

Next week, the economic data calendar heats up again. However, while there are a number of potentially market-moving data releases, the stock market will continued to monitor earnings reports. Retail sales are likely to have risen moderately in December, probably supported by the pulling forward of income (special dividends, early bonuses) into 2012 ahead of expected tax increases.

In November, factory output rebounded from the effects of Hurricane Sandy and we should see further gains in industrial production in December. The monthly inflation figures are expected to be benign. Lower gasoline prices will restrain the headline figures. Core inflation has been trending relatively low.

Indices

  Last Last Week YTD return %
DJIA 13471.22 13391.36 2.80%
NASDAQ 3121.76 3100.57 3.39%
S&P 500 1472.12 1459.37 3.22%
MSCI EAFE 1647.16 1628.10 2.69%
Russell 2000 881.24 872.60 3.75%

Consumer Money Rates

  Last 1-year ago
Prime Rate 3.25 3.25
Fed Funds 0.16 0.07
30-year mortgage 3.40 3.89

Currencies

  Last 1-year ago
Dollars per British Pound 1.616 1.548
Dollars per Euro 1.326 1.278
Japanese Yen per Dollar 88.200 76.820
Canadian Dollars per Dollar 0.985 1.017
Mexican Peso per Dollar 12.645 13.622

Commodities

  Last 1-year ago
Crude Oil 93.82 102.24
Gold 1676.65 1633.18

Bond Rates

  Last 1-month ago
2-year treasury 0.25 0.30
10-year treasury 1.90 1.79
10-year municipal (TEY) 2.97 2.66

Treasury Yield Curve – 01/11/2013

Treasury Yield Curve – 01/11/2013

S&P Sector Performance (YTD) – 01/11/2013

S&P Sector Performance (YTD) – 01/11/2013

Economic Calendar

January 15th

 —

Producer Price Index (December)
Retail Sales (December)
Empire State Manufacturing Index (January)
Business Inventories (November)
January 16th

 —

Consumer Price Index (December)
Industrial Production (December)
Homebuilder Sentiment (January)
Fed Beige Book
January 17th

 —

Jobless Claims (week ending January 12th)
Building Permits, Housing Starts (December)
Philadelphia Fed Index
January 18th

 —

Consumer Sentiment (mid-January)
January 21st

 —

MLK, Jr. Holiday (markets closed)
January 22nd

 —

Existing Home Sales (December)
January 25th

 —

New Home Sales (December)
January 30th

 —

Real GDP (1Q13, advance estimate)
FOMC Policy Decision (no Bernanke press briefing)

Important Disclosures

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. There are special risks involved with global investing related to market and currency fluctuations, economic and political instability, and different financial accounting standards. The above material has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete. There is no assurance that any trends mentioned will continue in the future. While interest on municipal bonds is generally exempt from federal income tax, it may be subject to the federal alternative minimum tax, state or local taxes. In addition, certain municipal bonds (such as Build America Bonds) are issued without a federal tax exemption, which subjects the related interest income to federal income tax. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss.

US government bonds and treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. US government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Treasury bills are certificates reflecting short-term (less than one year) obligations of the US government.

Commodities trading is generally considered speculative because of the significant potential for investment loss. Markets for commodities are likely to be volatile and there may be sharp price fluctuations even during periods when prices overall are rising. Specific sector investing can be subject to different and greater risks than more diversified investments.

Tax Equiv Muni yields (TEY) assume a 35% tax rate on triple-A rated, tax-exempt insured revenue bonds.

Material prepared by Raymond James for use by its financial advisors.

The information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Data source: Bloomberg, as of close of business January 10th, 2013.

©2013 Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. member FINRA / SIPC.

Frazier Allen
Frazier Allenhttp://www.raymondjames.com/frazierallen
Frazier Allen, WMS, CRPS, Financial Advisor with F&M Bank 50 Franklin Street | Clarksville, TN 37040 | 931-553-2048
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