Clarksville, TN – Next week, the focus will be on the Fed’s policy decision and Janet Yellen’s first press briefing as Fed chair. The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to taper the monthly pace of asset purchases by another $10 billion (to $55 billion).
Policymakers are also expected to tweak the language of the forward guidance (the Fed’s conditional commitment to keep the overnight lending rate exceptionally low). Specifically, we can expect the FOMC to discard the 6.5% unemployment rate threshold.
Officials have already indicated that they intend to look at a wide range of indicators to gauge the strength of the labor market.With elevated long-term unemployment, high unemployment rates for teenagers and young adults, and widespread evidence of underemployment, a full recovery in the labor market is still a long way off.
Fed officials will update their projections of growth, unemployment, inflation, and the path of the federal funds rate. Yellen is expected to be a better communicator than her predecessor.
Indices
Last | Last Week | YTD return % | |
DJIA | 16108.89 | 16421.89 | -2.82% |
NASDAQ | 4260.42 | 4352.13 | 2.01% |
S&P 500 | 1846.34 | 1877.03 | -0.11% |
MSCI EAFE | 1889.43 | 1940.23 | -1.37% |
Russell 2000 | 1176.74 | 1204.54 | 1.13% |
Consumer Money Rates
Last | 1-year ago | |
Prime Rate | 3.25 | 3.25 |
Fed Funds | 0.07 | 0.16 |
30-year mortgage | 4.37 | 3.63 |
Currencies
Last | 1-year ago | |
Dollars per British Pound | 1.663 | 1.493 |
Dollars per Euro | 1.386 | 1.297 |
Japanese Yen per Dollar | 101.830 | 96.060 |
Canadian Dollars per Dollar | 1.106 | 1.027 |
Mexican Peso per Dollar | 13.263 | 12.393 |
Commodities
Last | 1-year ago | |
Crude Oil | 98.20 | 92.52 |
Gold | 1371.38 | 1589.52 |
Bond Rates
Last | 1-month ago | |
2-year treasury | 0.34 | 0.31 |
10-year treasury | 2.64 | 2.74 |
10-year municipal (TEY) | 4.40 | 4.48 |
Treasury Yield Curve – 3/14/2014
S&P Sector Performance (YTD) – 3/14/2014
Economic Calendar
March 17th |
— |
Empire State Manufacturing Index (March) Industrial Production (February) |
March 18th |
— |
Consumer Price Index (February) Housing Starts, Building Permits (February) |
March 19th |
— |
FOMC Policy Decision, Yellen Press Briefing |
April 4th |
— |
Employment Report (March) |
April 30th |
— |
Real GDP (1Q14, advance estimate) FOMC Policy Decision (no press briefing) |
Important Disclosures
US government bonds and treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. US government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Treasury bills are certificates reflecting short-term (less than one year) obligations of the US government.
Commodities trading is generally considered speculative because of the significant potential for investment loss. Markets for commodities are likely to be volatile and there may be sharp price fluctuations even during periods when prices overall are rising. Specific sector investing can be subject to different and greater risks than more diversified investments.
Tax Equiv Muni yields (TEY) assume a 35% tax rate on triple-A rated, tax-exempt insured revenue bonds.
Material prepared by Raymond James for use by its financial advisors.
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Data source: Bloomberg, as of close of business March 13th, 2013.
©2014 Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. member FINRA / SIPC.