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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of August 18th, 2014


F&M Investment Services - Raymond James - Clarksville, TNClarksville, TN – Retail sales were flat in July, reflecting a weak start to 3Q14. Industrial production rose 0.4%, restrained by lower output of utilities (cooler than normal temperatures). Manufacturing output rose 1.1%, reflecting a 10.1% jump in auto production.

However, seasonal adjustment in autos is tricky in July (prior to seasonal adjustment, auto production fell 18.0%, vs. -26.8% in July 2013). Seasonal plant closings were much more moderate this year, trimming weekly jobless claims as well. The Job Opening and Labor Market Turnover Survey data for June showed gradual improvement in hiring and quit rates (although both remain well below normal levels).

Frazier Allen

Frazier Allen

Real GDP growth in the euro area was flat in 2Q14, and Ukraine/Russia tensions are expected to be a drag in 3Q14. Japan contracted at a 6.8% annual rate, following a 6.1% pace in the previous quarter (reflecting the timing of a tax increase).

U.S. financial markets were driven largely by shifting Fed policy expectations and by geopolitical tensions (mostly in Ukraine). Military action in the Ukraine contributed to a flight to safety into U.S. Treasuries, pushing yield sharply lower.

Next week, the focus will be on the Fed. The FOMC minutes (released Wednesday) may provide some insight into the Fed’s debate, but Yellen’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday will be critical. The markets appear to be anticipating a “dovish” tone from Yellen.

However, investors looking for Yellen to provide solid clues about the exact timing of the first Fed rate hike will be disappointed. Rather, Yellen’s speech should be viewed as the definitive guide on how monetary policy will respond to labor market developments in the months ahead.


Last Last Week YTD return %
DJIA 16713.58 16368.27 0.83%
NASDAQ 4453.00 4334.97 6.62%
S&P 500 1955.18 1909.57 5.78%
MSCI EAFE 1904.90 1883.02 -0.56%
Russell 2000 1143.34 1119.76 -1.74%

Consumer Money Rates

Last 1-year ago
Prime Rate 3.25 3.25
Fed Funds 0.09 0.10
30-year mortgage 4.12 4.40


Last 1-year ago
Dollars per British Pound 1.668 1.548
Dollars per Euro 1.338 1.325
Japanese Yen per Dollar 102.450 98.220
Canadian Dollars per Dollar 1.090 1.034
Mexican Peso per Dollar 13.106 12.719


Last 1-year ago
Crude Oil 95.58 106.85
Gold 1310.97 1325.28

Bond Rates

Last 1-month ago
2-year treasury 0.42 0.46
10-year treasury 2.39 2.47
10-year municipal (TEY) 3.43 3.62

Treasury Yield Curve – 8/15/2014

Treasury Yield Curve – 8/15/2014

S&P Sector Performance (YTD) – 8/15/2014

S&P Sector Performance (YTD) – 8/15/2014

Economic Calendar

August 18th Homebuilder Sentiment (August)
August 19th Consumer Price Index (July)
Building Permits, Housing Starts (July)
August 20th FOMC Minutes (July 29th-30th)
August 21st Jobless Claims (week ending August 16)
Existing Home Sales
Philadelphia Fed Index (August)
Leading Economic Indicators (July)
August 22nd Yellen Jackson Hole Speech
August 28th Real GDP (2Q14, 2nd estimate)
September 1st Labor Day (markets closed)
September 5th Employment Report (August)
September 17th FOMC Policy Decision, Yellen Press Conference

Important Disclosures

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. There are special risks involved with global investing related to market and currency fluctuations, economic and political instability, and different financial accounting standards. The above material has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete. There is no assurance that any trends mentioned will continue in the future. While interest on municipal bonds is generally exempt from federal income tax, it may be subject to the federal alternative minimum tax, state or local taxes. In addition, certain municipal bonds (such as Build America Bonds) are issued without a federal tax exemption, which subjects the related interest income to federal income tax. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss.

US government bonds and treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. US government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Treasury bills are certificates reflecting short-term (less than one year) obligations of the US government.

Commodities trading is generally considered speculative because of the significant potential for investment loss. Markets for commodities are likely to be volatile and there may be sharp price fluctuations even during periods when prices overall are rising. Specific sector investing can be subject to different and greater risks than more diversified investments.

Tax Equiv Muni yields (TEY) assume a 35% tax rate on triple-A rated, tax-exempt insured revenue bonds.

Material prepared by Raymond James for use by its financial advisors.

The information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Data source: Bloomberg, as of close of business August 14th, 2014.

©2014 Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. member FINRA / SIPC.

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