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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of December 2nd, 2014

 

F&M Investment Services - Raymond James - Clarksville, TNClarksville, TN – This week, the economic calendar picks up with fresh November figures. The focus is expected to be on the Employment Report, although the European Central Bank’s policy decision may be more critical.

ECB President Mario Draghi has repeatedly signaled that QE is on its way. Will the ECB pull the trigger this week? Seems likely (but if not, then in January).

Nonfarm payrolls were likely to have risen at a moderately strong pace, but seasonal adjustment could distort the figures (so take with a grain of salt).

Frazier Allen

Frazier Allen

Note that with a short four-week period between Thanksgiving and Christmas, retailers have been trying to pull forward holiday sales with earlier discounts and promotions.

We’re likely to see retail hiring pick up earlier than usual, adding to the total (note that the retail jobs added in November and December will disappear in January).

Market participants will also be interested in the monthly ISM surveys, especially the manufacturing data (which may set the tone for the week).

Indices

Last Last Week YTD return %
DJIA 17827.75 17719.00 7.55%
NASDAQ 4787.32 4701.87 14.62%
S&P 500 2072.83 2052.75 12.14%
MSCI EAFE 1848.79 1815.14 -3.49%
Russell 2000 1190.62 1170.75 2.32%

 Consumer Money Rates

Last 1 year ago
Prime Rate 3.25 3.25
Fed Funds 0.10 0.07
30-year mortgage 3.97 4.29

 Currencies

Last 1 year ago
Dollars per British Pound 1.573 1.618
Dollars per Euro 1.246 1.355
Japanese Yen per Dollar 117.760 101.430
Canadian Dollars per Dollar 1.128 1.054
Mexican Peso per Dollar 13.687 13.075

 Commodities

Last 1 year ago
Crude Oil 73.69 93.68
Gold 1196.42 1251.90

 Bond Rates

Last 1 month ago
2-year treasury 0.50 0.49
10-year treasury 2.20 2.34
10-year municipal (TEY) 3.43 3.27

 Treasury Yield Curve – 11/28/2014

Treasury Yield Curve – 11/28/2014

 

S&P Sector Performance (YTD) – 11/28/2014

S&P Sector Performance (YTD) – 11/28/2014

 

Economic Calendar

December 1st Market U.S. PMI (November, final)
ISM Manufacturing Index (November)
December 3rd ADP Payroll Estimate (November)
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (November)
Fed Beige Book
December th4 ECB Policy Meeting
Jobless Claims (week ending November 29th)
December 5th Employment Report (November)
Trade Balance (October)
December 11th Retail Sales (November)
December 17th FOMC Policy Decision (Yellen Press Conference)

Important Disclosures

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. There are special risks involved with global investing related to market and currency fluctuations, economic and political instability, and different financial accounting standards. The above material has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete. There is no assurance that any trends mentioned will continue in the future. While interest on municipal bonds is generally exempt from federal income tax, it may be subject to the federal alternative minimum tax, state or local taxes. In addition, certain municipal bonds (such as Build America Bonds) are issued without a federal tax exemption, which subjects the related interest income to federal income tax. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss.

US government bonds and treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. US government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Treasury bills are certificates reflecting short-term (less than one year) obligations of the US government.

Commodities trading is generally considered speculative because of the significant potential for investment loss. Markets for commodities are likely to be volatile and there may be sharp price fluctuations even during periods when prices overall are rising. Specific sector investing can be subject to different and greater risks than more diversified investments.

Tax Equiv Muni yields (TEY) assume a 35% tax rate on triple-A rated, tax-exempt insured revenue bonds.

Material prepared by Raymond James for use by its financial advisors.

The information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Data source: Bloomberg, as of close of business November 27th, 2014.

©2014 Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. member FINRA / SIPC.


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