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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of April 12th, 2015

F&M Investment Services - Raymond James - Clarksville, TNClarksville, TN – The economic data calendar was thin. Stock market participants finally got their chance to react to the disappointing employment data for March (the report was released on Good Friday).

However, the negative response was brief, as the market opened lower on Monday and then quickly turned up. The markets seemed to be looking for direction through the week, but failed to find much in the early earnings reports.

Frazier Allen
Frazier Allen

The FOMC minutes from the March 17th-18th policy meeting showed that “several” participants were leaning toward an initial rate hike in June. However, others felt that the economic data would support an initial move later this year or in 2016. Note that all senior Fed officials (the five governors and 12 district bank presidents) are “participants” at policy meetings.

However, only 10 officials get to vote (the governors and five of the district bank presidents). Fed Governor Jerome Powell said that conditions are likely to warrant an initial hike later this year, but noted “the precise timing of liftoff is less important than the path of subsequent additional rate increases.”

He said that if the economic data come in as anticipated, “it will be appropriate for a time to increase rates fairly gradually.”

Next week, the mid-month data reports are expected to play a key role in shaping near-term expectations for the economy. While figures for January and February have been generally disappointing, it’s widely expected that growth will pick up in the data for March and April.

However, that may be skewed more toward April. Retail sales, the highlight of the week, are expected to have picked up nicely in March. The IMF’s World Economic Outlook should be a bit brighter (a slightly more optimistic outlook for Europe, but with a downward revision to the U.S.). We may hear the G-20 central bankers and finance ministers express concerns about the strong dollar later in the week.

Indices

Last Last Week YTD return %
DJIA 17958.73 17763.24 0.76%
NASDAQ 4974.57 4886.94 5.04%
S&P 500 2091.18 2066.96 1.57%
MSCI EAFE 1895.75 1870.36 6.81%
Russell 2000 1259.11 1255.66 4.52%

 Consumer Money Rates

Last 1 year ago
Prime Rate 3.25 3.25
Fed Funds 0.12 0.08
30-year mortgage 3.70 4.34

 Currencies

Last 1 year ago
Dollars per British Pound 1.482 1.674
Dollars per Euro 1.076 1.381
Japanese Yen per Dollar 119.970 102.040
Canadian Dollars per Dollar 1.253 1.094
Mexican Peso per Dollar 14.894 13.046

 Commodities

Last 1 year ago
Crude Oil 50.79 103.60
Gold 1199.73 1308.98

 Bond Rates

Last 1 month ago
2-year treasury 0.54 0.66
10-year treasury 1.94 2.11
10-year municipal (TEY) 3.05 3.34

 Treasury Yield Curve – 04/10/2015

Treasury Yield Curve – 04/10/2015

S&P Sector Performance (YTD) – 04/10/2015

S&P Sector Performance (YTD) – 04/10/2015

Economic Calendar

April 14th — Producer Price Index (March)
Retail Sales (March)
IMF World Economic Outlook
April 15th — Industrial Production (March)
Homebuilder Sentiment (April)
Fed Beige Book
April 16th — Jobless Claims (week ending April 11th)
Building Permits, Housing Starts (March)
April 17th — Consumer Price Index (March)
UM Consumer Sentiment (mid-April)
Leading Economic Indicators (March)
G-20 Statement
April 22nd — Existing Home Sales (March)

Important Disclosures

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. There are special risks involved with global investing related to market and currency fluctuations, economic and political instability, and different financial accounting standards. The above material has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete. There is no assurance that any trends mentioned will continue in the future. While interest on municipal bonds is generally exempt from federal income tax, it may be subject to the federal alternative minimum tax, state or local taxes. In addition, certain municipal bonds (such as Build America Bonds) are issued without a federal tax exemption, which subjects the related interest income to federal income tax. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss.

US government bonds and treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. US government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Treasury bills are certificates reflecting short-term (less than one year) obligations of the US government.

Commodities trading is generally considered speculative because of the significant potential for investment loss. Markets for commodities are likely to be volatile and there may be sharp price fluctuations even during periods when prices overall are rising. Specific sector investing can be subject to different and greater risks than more diversified investments.

Tax Equiv Muni yields (TEY) assume a 35% tax rate on triple-A rated, tax-exempt insured revenue bonds.

Material prepared by Raymond James for use by its financial advisors.

The information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Data source: Bloomberg, as of close of business April 9th, 2015.

©2014 Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. member FINRA / SIPC.

Frazier Allen
Frazier Allenhttp://www.raymondjames.com/frazierallen
Frazier Allen, WMS, CRPS, Financial Advisor with F&M Bank 50 Franklin Street | Clarksville, TN 37040 | 931-553-2048
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