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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of March 6th, 2016

F&M Investment Services - Raymond James - Clarksville, TNClarksville, TN – Nonfarm payrolls rose more than expected in February, while figures for the two previous months were revised higher. At 228,000, the three-month average has remained strong. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.9%, but labor force participation continued to pick up and the employment/population ratio is trending higher.

Hours fell, likely reflecting bad weather (weakness in hours was concentrated in mining, which includes energy exploration, and construction). Average hourly earnings fell 0.1% (following a 0.5% rise in January), bringing the year-over-year gain down to 2.2% (from 2.5%), but the three-month average was up nearly 2.5% y/y.

Frazier Allen
Frazier Allen

The other economic data reports were mixed. In the Beige Book, two of the 12 Federal Reserve districts described growth as “moderate,” while others saw things at “modest,” “slight,” “flat,” or “mixed,” and The Kansas City Fed noted “a modest decline” in activity.

The ISM Manufacturing Index remained below the breakeven level in February, but details were not as bad as in January and survey respondents were generally upbeat.

The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index was little changed, consistent with lackluster-to-moderate growth in the overall economy. January foreign trade figures suggested that exports will be a larger drag on GDP growth. The pace of auto sales remained brisk in February.

Next week, the U.S. economic calendar thins out considerably. The focus is expected to be on the European Central Bank’s policy meeting, where officials may once again disappoint market expectations (in this case, more QE or rates pushed further into negative territory).


  Last Last Week YTD return %
DJIA 16943.90 16697.28 -2.76%
NASDAQ 4707.42 4582.21 -5.99%
S&P 500 1993.40 1951.70 -2.47%
MSCI EAFE 1611.70 1554.15 -6.09%
Russell 2000 1076.05 1031.58 -5.27%

Consumer Money Rates

    Last 1 year ago
Prime Rate 3.50 3.25
Fed Funds 0.37 0.12
30-year mortgage 3.74 3.75


  Last 1 year ago
Dollars per British Pound 1.418 1.524
Dollars per Euro 1.096 1.108
Japanese Yen per Dollar 113.690 120.130
Canadian Dollars per Dollar 1.340 1.243
Mexican Peso per Dollar 17.923 15.055


  Last 1 year ago
Crude Oil 34.57 51.53
Gold 1258.20 1200.90

Bond Rates

  Last 1 month ago
2-year treasury 0.84 0.71
10-year treasury 1.83 1.85
10-year municipal (TEY) 2.71 2.60

Treasury Yield Curve – 03/04/2016

As of close of business 03/03/2016

Treasury Yield Curve – 03/04/2016

Economic Calendar

March 7th Fed Vice Chair Fischer Speaks (macroeconomics)
Fed Governor Brainard Speaks (economic outlook)
March 8th Small Business Optimism Index (February)
March 10th ECB Policy Meeting
Jobless Claims (week ending February 27th)
March 11th Import Prices (February)
March 15th Producer Price Index (February)
Retail Sales
March 16th Consumer Price Index (February)
Building Permits, Housing Starts (February)
Industrial Production (February)
FOMC Policy Decision, Revised Fed Projections
Yellen Press Conference
March 17th Leading Economic Indicators (February)
March 25th Good Friday Holiday (markets closed)
April 1st Employment Report (March)
April 27th FOMC Policy Decision (no Yellen press conference)
June 15th FOMC Policy Decision (Yellen Press Conference)

Important Disclosures

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. There are special risks involved with global investing related to market and currency fluctuations, economic and political instability, and different financial accounting standards. The above material has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete. There is no assurance that any trends mentioned will continue in the future. While interest on municipal bonds is generally exempt from federal income tax, it may be subject to the federal alternative minimum tax, state or local taxes. In addition, certain municipal bonds (such as Build America Bonds) are issued without a federal tax exemption, which subjects the related interest income to federal income tax. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss.

US government bonds and treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. US government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Treasury bills are certificates reflecting short-term (less than one year) obligations of the US government.

Commodities trading is generally considered speculative because of the significant potential for investment loss. Markets for commodities are likely to be volatile and there may be sharp price fluctuations even during periods when prices overall are rising. Specific sector investing can be subject to different and greater risks than more diversified investments.

Tax Equiv Muni yields (TEY) assume a 35% tax rate on triple-A rated, tax-exempt insured revenue bonds.

Material prepared by Raymond James for use by its financial advisors.

The information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Data source: Bloomberg, as of close of business March 3rd, 2016.

©2016 Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. member FINRA / SIPC.

Frazier Allen
Frazier Allenhttp://www.raymondjames.com/frazierallen
Frazier Allen, WMS, CRPS, Financial Advisor with F&M Bank 50 Franklin Street | Clarksville, TN 37040 | 931-553-2048

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