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Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of February 20th, 2013

 

Weekly Market Snapshot

Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist

Scott J. Brown Ph.D., Chief Economist Raymond James Investment Services

In his State of the Union Address, President Obama proposed various efforts to boost manufacturing jobs, universal pre-K education and an increase in the minimum wage. However, there’s little chance that any of these proposals will make it to the floor of the House.

The economic data were mixed. Retail sales rose a modest 0.1% in January. Industrial production slipped 0.1%, but figures for November and December were revised higher. The New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Index and the mid-February reading on consumer sentiment surprised to the upside. «Read the rest of this article»

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Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of February 10th, 2013

 

Weekly Market Snapshot

Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist

Scott J. Brown Ph.D., Chief Economist Raymond James Investment Services

Federal Reserve Governor Jeremy Stein fell short of declaring that credit markets are overheating, but suggested that an extended period of low interest rates could lead to the taking on of greater duration of credit risks, or to employment of greater leverage in a “reach for yield.” He said that the Fed must monitor the financial markets closely and could address signs of excessive risk-taking through regulatory efforts or through monetary policy.

Next week, President Barack Obama will deliver his State of the Union Address on Tuesday evening (which is also Mardi Gras). Most likely, the President will ask that Congress postpone the sequester through the end of the year. Note that it’s not costless to do so – there has to be an offsetting increase in revenues (possibly closed loopholes) or reduction in other types of spending (say, reduced farm subsidies). The reports on retail sales and industrial production have some market-moving potential, but seasonal adjustment could exaggerate what would otherwise be minor shifts in the data. «Read the rest of this article»

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Stocks up for 2012, continue to climb after Fiscal Cliff deal

 

Frazier AllenClarksville, TN – The three major stock indices finished up for 2012 and continued to climb in the new year as Congress passed a last-minute plan to avoid most of the so-called “fiscal cliff.”

The Congressional Budget Office estimates these measures will add $4 trillion to the deficit over the next 10 years, while raising $620 billion in revenue through a series of tax increases on wealthier Americans.

The 2011 temporary cut to Social Security payroll taxes was not extended, increasing them from 4.2% to 6.2% effective immediately. The 2 percentage point increase means everyone will take home less each paycheck, which could impact consumer spending growth over the near term, according to Raymond James Chief Economist Scott J. Brown, Ph.D. «Read the rest of this article»

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The Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of December 30th, 2012

 

Weekly Market Snapshot

Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist

Scott J. Brown Ph.D., Chief Economist Raymond James Investment ServicesNext week, the ISM manufacturing data and the December Employment Report will be important, helping to set the near-term economic outlook (beyond the fiscal cliff).

Seasonal adjustment can be tricky in December, but we should see a moderately strong gain in nonfarm payrolls.

The unemployment rate is expected to be flat or slightly higher.

Congress returns and we may see some leadership changes in the House. «Read the rest of this article»

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Fiscal cliff may derail Market momentum gathered in November

 

F&M Investment Services - Raymond JamesClarksville, TN – Even though the market indexes showed little change in November, the end of 2012 looks promising as the U.S. economy rebounded despite a highly contentious election cycle and the devastating effects of Hurricane Sandy thanks to some encouraging numbers from key indicators.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced a post-election trough and ended the month north of 13,000, but still flat compared to the end of October. The NASDAQ mirrored the DJIA, bottoming at 2,837 on November 15th to close at a near month-high at 3,010. Likewise, the S&P 500 rallied from a low of 1,353 for November to end the month at 1,416. «Read the rest of this article»

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