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Recent Articles
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Topic: Mortgage Rates
Existing home sales fell in August, reflecting a decline in speculators (i.e., fewer all-cash transactions). New home sales surged 18.9%, but that likely reflects the usual volatility in the data. Durable goods orders fell 18%, reflecting an unwinding of July’s sharp spike in civilian aircraft orders. The three-month averages of shipments and orders for nondefense capital goods (ex-aircraft) suggest good strength in business fixed investments. «Read the rest of this article» Sections: Business | No Comments
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of September 21st, 2014
Fed officials’ projections of the appropriate year-end federal funds target rate indicated that most expect to begin raising short-term interest rates sometime in 2015, but there was a wide range in the individual forecasts (and implicitly, in their expectations of when rates will start to rise – with most spread roughly evenly between March and September). «Read the rest of this article» Sections: News | No Comments
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of September 14th, 2014
While the pace of consumer spending growth does not appear to be especially strong into 3Q14, it’s not terrible weak either (and certainly not as bad as the data suggested a month ago). Financial market participants didn’t seem to care much about the retail sales data. Global anxieties receded a bit as the “no” vote for Scottish independence regained an upper hand in the polls. The markets didn’t react much to President Obama’s call for military action in the Middle East. «Read the rest of this article» Sections: Business | No Comments
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of September 7th, 2014
The Fed’s Beige Book, the summary of anecdotal economic information from the 12 Federal Reserve districts, was essentially more of the same (growth described as “modest to moderate”). The August Employment Report was disappointing. «Read the rest of this article» Sections: Business | No Comments
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of August 27th, 2014
However, Yellen presented a balanced assessment of the evidence and theories of labor market slack. While Yellen still sees plenty of labor market slack currently, she left the monetary policy outlook as an open question. She repeated the notion (also included in the FOMC minutes) that the Fed could firm monetary policy sooner if the economy strengthens more than anticipated, but could also tighten more slowly if the economy disappoints. «Read the rest of this article» Sections: Business | No Comments
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of August 18th, 2014
However, seasonal adjustment in autos is tricky in July (prior to seasonal adjustment, auto production fell 18.0%, vs. -26.8% in July 2013). Seasonal plant closings were much more moderate this year, trimming weekly jobless claims as well. The Job Opening and Labor Market Turnover Survey data for June showed gradual improvement in hiring and quit rates (although both remain well below normal levels). «Read the rest of this article» Sections: Business | No Comments
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of August 10th, 2014
Geopolitical concerns helped push global bond yields sharply lower. The U.S. Treasury note yield fell below 2.40%. «Read the rest of this article» Sections: News | No Comments
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of August 3rd, 2014
The Fed provided no additional guidance on short-term interest rates, but repeated that the federal funds rate target would likely remain exceptionally low for “a considerable period” after the asset purchase program ends and that economic conditions will likely warrant a below-normal federal funds rate even as the Fed nears its employment and inflation goals. «Read the rest of this article» Sections: Business | No Comments
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of July 27th, 2014
Existing home sales improved, with a further increase in the number of homes for sale. Durable goods orders rose moderately, but details showed a lackluster trend in shipments of nondefense capital goods. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% (+2.1% y/y), inflated partly by the seasonal adjustment for gasoline (which rose 0.3% before adjustment and +3.3% after adjustment). Ex-food & energy, the CPI edged up 0.1% (+2.0% y/y). «Read the rest of this article» Sections: Business | No Comments
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of July 20th, 2014
The Producer Price Index and import price reports showed no appreciable pipeline pressures for inflation. «Read the rest of this article» Sections: News | No Comments
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