Topic: U.S. Treasury
Washington, D.C. – The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) reported complaints from people receiving fake letters supposedly from the IRS.
In the past, it was made clear to potential victims of IRS scams that the agency will never call or email regarding debt due. Mail was always the primary form of communication.
Scammers have obviously caught on and have started mailing fake correspondences.
Washington, D.C. – Senator Marsha Blackburn’s (R-Tenn.) bipartisan legislation honoring the 100th anniversary of women gaining the right to vote with a commemorative coin has passed Congress and is on its way to the President’s desk to be signed into law.
The Women’s Suffrage Centennial Commemorative Coin Act, cosponsored by Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), will create a silver $1 coin minted by the U.S. Treasury. Reps. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) and Brenda Lawrence (D-Mich.) led companion legislation in the House of Representatives.
Clarksville, TN – Next week, a number of important economic data reports will arrive, but the focus is expected to be on the May employment figures. Recent labor market data suggest that the tight job market has grown tighter still.
Over the next several months, the pace of job growth is expected to be restrained by a lack of qualified workers. The unemployment rate is likely to remain low (it was 3.9% in April).
Clarksville, TN – Next week, the ISM surveys have some market-moving potential and we should receive anecdotal information on the strength of holiday sales, but the focus is expected to be on the employment figures.
Seasonal adjustment is a bit quirky in December and can easily magnify the normal statistical noise in the job market figures (as a reminder, the monthly change in nonfarm payrolls is reported accurate to ±120,000 and the unemployment rate is reported accurate to ±0.2%). Market participants are likely to focus on average hourly earnings, which can be noisy.
Clarksville, TN – As expected, the Fed raised short-term interest rates for the third time in 2017 (market participants were more focused on the progress of tax legislation).
The dots in the dot plot did not shift much from where they were in September and were all over the place for the end of 2018 and 2019 – meaning that there is no clear consensus on the pace of policy action (and bear in mind that personnel changes mean that many of these dots will be replaced in 2018).
Clarksville, TN – Next week, the economic calendar picks back up and the Senate returns to work on its version of a tax-cut bill.
However, the focus is expected to be on Jay Powell’s Fed chair nomination hearing. Powell is unlikely to speak about the near-term policy outlook (what the Fed will do in December), but lawmakers will ask about his broader approach to monetary policy and banking regulation (expect vigorous questioning from Senator Warren, but he should eventually receive approval in a full Senate vote).
Clarksville, TN – Next week, the economic calendar picks up, with the important figures (nonfarm payrolls, ISM manufacturing) arriving as market participants get set for the three-day weekend. Consumer confidence figures will cover the first half of the month and are therefore unlikely to reflect much of an impact from Charlottesville.
Second quarter GDP growth is likely to be revised higher in the 2nd estimate (a 2.6% pace in the advance estimate).
Clarksville, TN – The May Employment Report was generally disappointing. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 138,000 (median forecast: +185,000), while figures for March and April were revised a net 66,000 lower.
Retail payrolls fell for the fourth consecutive month (down more than 80,000 since January, which is more than the total number of coal miners). The unemployment rate dipped to 4.3%, a 16-year low, partly reflecting a sharp drop in the rate for young adults (which could reflect a seasonal adjustment issue, although the trend is clearly lower).
Clarksville, TN – The economic data calendar was thin. December trade figures were roughly in line with expectations. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell in the mid-February estimate.
Stock market investors were encouraged by the prospect for tax cuts following comments by U.S. President Donald Trump. In contrast, the bond market, recognizing that the process for cutting taxes will be contentious and lengthy, is less fearful of a large boost to the federal budget deficit (hence, bond yields have backed down over the past month).
Clarksville, TN – The Federal Open Market Committee left short-term interest rates unchanged, as expected, and tweaked the wording of the policy statement slightly. There were no solid clues as to the timing of the next increase in short-term interest rates, but officials noted the improvement in consumer and business sentiment and seemed a little more confident that inflation “will” increase to the 2% goal.
While January numbers are often suspect due to the magnitude of the seasonal adjustment, the economic data continued to paint a picture of the economy that is in good shape.
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