Clarksville, TN – Next week, a number of important economic data reports will arrive, but the focus is expected to be on the May employment figures. Recent labor market data suggest that the tight job market has grown tighter still.
Over the next several months, the pace of job growth is expected to be restrained by a lack of qualified workers. The unemployment rate is likely to remain low (it was 3.9% in April).
Average hourly earnings figures tend to be quirky – monthly changes are choppy and often revised the next month – but the trend has remained moderate.
Other data reports (the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, the 1Q18 GDP revision, the core PCE Price Index) have some market-moving potential.
Indices
| Last | Last Week | YTD return % | |
| DJIA | 24811.76 | 24713.98 | 0.37% |
| NASDAQ | 7424.43 | 7382.47 | 7.55% |
| S&P 500 | 2727.76 | 2720.13 | 2.03% |
| MSCI EAFE | 2023.03 | 2050.45 | -1.35% |
| Russell 2000 | 1628.22 | 1625.29 | 6.04% |
Consumer Money Rates
| Last | 1 year ago | |
| Prime Rate | 4.75 | 4.00 |
| Fed Funds | 1.69 | 0.91 |
| 30-year mortgage | 4.67 | 4.03 |
Currencies
| Last | 1 year ago | |
| Dollars per British Pound | 1.338 | 1.294 |
| Dollars per Euro | 1.172 | 1.121 |
| Japanese Yen per Dollar | 109.26 | 111.84 |
| Canadian Dollars per Dollar | 1.288 | 1.345 |
| Mexican Peso per Dollar | 19.574 | 18.503 |
Commodities
| Last | 1 year ago | |
| Crude Oil | 70.71 | 48.90 |
| Gold | 1309.80 | 1259.80 |
Bond Rates
| Last | 1 month ago | |
| 2-year treasury | 2.52 | 2.48 |
| 10-year treasury | 2.99 | 2.97 |
| 10-year municipal (TEY) | 3.86 | 3.94 |
Treasury Yield Curve – 05/25/2018
As of close of business 05/24/2018
S&P Sector Performance (YTD) – 05/25/2018
As of close of business 05/24/2018
Economic Calendar
| May 28 | — | Memorial Day Holiday (Markets closed) |
| May 29 | — | CB Consumer Confidence (May) |
| May 30 | — | ADP Payroll Estimate (May) |
| — | Real GDP (1Q18, 2nd estimate) | |
| — | Fed Beige Book | |
| May 31 | — | Jobless Claims (week ending May 26) |
| — | Personal Income and Spending (April) | |
| — | Chicago Business Barometer (May) | |
| June 1 | — | Employment Report (May) |
| — | ISM Manufacturing Index (May) | |
| June 5 | — | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (May) |
| June 12 | — | Consumer Price Index (May) |
| June 13 | — | FOMC Policy Decision (Powell press conference) |
| June 14 | — | Retail Sales (May) |
| June 13 | — | FOMC Policy Decision (Powell press conference) |
Important Disclosures
US government bonds and treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. US government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Treasury bills are certificates reflecting short-term (less than one year) obligations of the US government.
Commodities trading is generally considered speculative because of the significant potential for investment loss. Markets for commodities are likely to be volatile and there may be sharp price fluctuations even during periods when prices overall are rising. Specific sector investing can be subject to different and greater risks than more diversified investments.
Tax Equiv Muni yields (TEY) assume a 35% tax rate on triple-A rated, tax-exempt insured revenue bonds.
Material prepared by Raymond James for use by its financial advisors.
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Data source: Bloomberg, as of close of business May 24th, 2018.
