Clarksville, TN – Next week, the ISM surveys have some market-moving potential and we should receive anecdotal information on the strength of holiday sales, but the focus is expected to be on the employment figures.
Seasonal adjustment is a bit quirky in December and can easily magnify the normal statistical noise in the job market figures (as a reminder, the monthly change in nonfarm payrolls is reported accurate to ±120,000 and the unemployment rate is reported accurate to ±0.2%). Market participants are likely to focus on average hourly earnings, which can be noisy.
Indices
Last | Last Week | YTD return % | |
DJIA | 24837.51 | 24778.26 | 25.68% |
NASDAQ | 6950.16 | 6965.36 | 29.11% |
S&P 500 | 2687.54 | 2684.57 | 20.04% |
MSCI EAFE | 2043.31 | 2033.66 | 21.34% |
Russell 2000 | 1548.93 | 1533.66 | 14.13% |
Consumer Money Rates
Last | 1 year ago | |
Prime Rate | 4.50 | 3.75 |
Fed Funds | 1.41 | 0.66 |
30-year mortgage | 4.04 | 4.23 |
Currencies
Last | 1 year ago | |
Dollars per British Pound | 1.344 | 1.226 |
Dollars per Euro | 1.194 | 1.049 |
Japanese Yen per Dollar | 112.87 | 116.54 |
Canadian Dollars per Dollar | 1.257 | 1.350 |
Mexican Peso per Dollar | 19.721 | 20.728 |
Commodities
Last | 1 year ago | |
Crude Oil | 59.84 | 53.77 |
Gold | 1297.20 | 1158.10 |
Bond Rates
Last | 1 month ago | |
2-year treasury | 1.90 | 1.78 |
10-year treasury | 2.43 | 2.38 |
10-year municipal (TEY) | 3.11 | 3.40 |
Treasury Yield Curve – 12/29/2017
As of close of business 12/28/2017
S&P Sector Performance (YTD) – 12/29/2017
As of close of business 12/28/2017
Economic Calendar
January 1 | — | New Year’s Holiday (markets closed) |
January 3 | — | ISM Manufacturing Index (December) |
— | FOMC Minutes (December 12-13) | |
January 4 | — | ADP Payroll Estimate (December) |
January 5 | — | Employment Report (December) |
— | Trade Balance (November) | |
— | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (December) | |
January 12 | — | Consumer Price Index (December) |
— | Retail Sales (December) | |
January 15 | — | MLK Jr. Holiday (markets closed) |
January 26 | — | Real GDP (4Q17, advance estimate) |
January 31 | — | FOMC Policy Decision (no press conference) |
Important Disclosures
US government bonds and treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. US government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Treasury bills are certificates reflecting short-term (less than one year) obligations of the US government.
Commodities trading is generally considered speculative because of the significant potential for investment loss. Markets for commodities are likely to be volatile and there may be sharp price fluctuations even during periods when prices overall are rising. Specific sector investing can be subject to different and greater risks than more diversified investments.
Tax Equiv Muni yields (TEY) assume a 35% tax rate on triple-A rated, tax-exempt insured revenue bonds.
Material prepared by Raymond James for use by its financial advisors.
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Data source: Bloomberg, as of close of business December 28th, 2017.