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Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of July 30th, 2013

 

Weekly Market Snapshot

Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist

Scott J. Brown Ph.D., Chief Economist Raymond James Investment ServicesThe economic data reports were mixed. Existing home sales fell slightly in July. New home sales jumped 8.3% (although figures for the two previous months were revised lower and the July increase was not statistically different from zero). A measure of manufacturing activity in China weakened in July, but the same measure for the euro area was about flat.

Next week, no changes are expected from the Federal Open Market Committee, but investors will be sensitive to any changes in the wording of the policy statement. Future Fed policy decisions will be driven by the economic data (or more precisely, the implications that the data will have for the economic outlook).

The two key reports are the advance estimate of 2Q13 GDP growth and the July Employment Report. Note that the estimate of GDP growth can easily be revised a full percentage point higher or lower than the initial estimate, but growth is likely to have been lackluster (an annual rate of 1.0-1.5%).

Comprehensive benchmark revisions will add to the uncertainty (and have the potential to confuse the markets). GDP figures will be revised back to 1929. The government will count intellectual property products as business fixed investment, which should add about 3% to the level of GDP.

Payrolls are expected to post another strong gain, although seasonal adjustment can often be a bit tricky in July (end of the school year, seasonal auto plant closings). In short, it could be a wild week.

Indices

  Last Last Week YTD return %
DJIA 15555.61 15548.54 18.71%
NASDAQ 3605.19 3611.28 19.40%
S&P 500 1690.25 1689.37 18.52%
MSCI EAFE 1744.10 1731.42 8.73%
Russell 2000 1054.18 1050.27 24.12%

Consumer Money Rates

  Last 1-year ago
Prime Rate 3.25 3.25
Fed Funds 0.10 0.06
30-year mortgage 4.31 3.49

Currencies

  Last 1-year ago
Dollars per British Pound 1.533 1.548
Dollars per Euro 1.323 1.213
Japanese Yen per Dollar 99.620 78.220
Canadian Dollars per Dollar 1.028 1.018
Mexican Peso per Dollar 12.654 13.637

Commodities

  Last 1-year ago
Crude Oil 105.54 88.79
Gold 1329.95 1605.30

Bond Rates

  Last 1-month ago
2-year treasury 0.32 0.36
10-year treasury 2.56 2.52
10-year municipal (TEY) 4.57 4.31

Treasury Yield Curve – 07/26/2013

Treasury Yield Curve – 07/26/2013

S&P Sector Performance (YTD) – 07/26/2013

S&P Sector Performance (YTD) – 07/26/2013

Economic Calendar

July 29

 —

Pending Home Sales Index (June)
July 30

 —

Case-Shiller Home Price Index (May)
Consumer Confidence (July)
July 31

 —

ADP Payroll Estimate (July)
Real GDP (advance 2Q13 + comprehensive revisions)
FOMC Policy Decision (no press briefing)
August 1

 —

Jobless Claims (week ending July 27)
ISM Manufacturing Index (July)
Motor Vehicle Sales (July)
August 2

 —

Employment Report (July)
Personal Income and Spending (June + benchmark revisions)
August 21

 —

FOMC Minutes (July 30-31)

Important Disclosures

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. There are special risks involved with global investing related to market and currency fluctuations, economic and political instability, and different financial accounting standards. The above material has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete. There is no assurance that any trends mentioned will continue in the future. While interest on municipal bonds is generally exempt from federal income tax, it may be subject to the federal alternative minimum tax, state or local taxes. In addition, certain municipal bonds (such as Build America Bonds) are issued without a federal tax exemption, which subjects the related interest income to federal income tax. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss.

US government bonds and treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. US government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Treasury bills are certificates reflecting short-term (less than one year) obligations of the US government.

Commodities trading is generally considered speculative because of the significant potential for investment loss. Markets for commodities are likely to be volatile and there may be sharp price fluctuations even during periods when prices overall are rising. Specific sector investing can be subject to different and greater risks than more diversified investments.

Tax Equiv Muni yields (TEY) assume a 35% tax rate on triple-A rated, tax-exempt insured revenue bonds.

Material prepared by Raymond James for use by its financial advisors.

The information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Data source: Bloomberg, as of close of business July 25th, 2013.

©2013 Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. member FINRA / SIPC.


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