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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of April 3rd, 2016

F&M Investment Services - Raymond James - Clarksville, TNClarksville, TN – In her speech, Fed Chair Yellen indicated that “given the risks, I consider it appropriate for the [FOMC] to proceed cautiously in adjusting policy.” This dovish stance was taken well by financial market participants.

Yellen emphasized that the Fed’s projections (such as the dots in the dot plot) are expectations and “not a plan written in stone.” Fed policy decisions will remain data-dependent, but Yellen stressed that the central bank has a limited ability to respond to downside shocks to the economy.

Frazier Allen
Frazier Allen

The economic data were mixed. Personal income and spending figures were soft in February, but the downward revision to January’s spending (from +0.5% to +0.1%), along with the previous week’s report on factory shipments, sent economists to revise lower their forecasts of 1Q16 GDP growth (now seen at a 0.5% to 1.0% annual rate, although there are several missing pieces still).

The employment report was roughly in line with expectations (nonfarm payrolls up by 215,000). The ISM manufacturing report was stronger than expected (but still not exactly “strong”). The Fed’s annual benchmark revisions to its industrial production figures showed a much slower pace of growth in manufacturing output in 2014-15 than was previously reported – however, the markets paid little attention to the news.

Next week, the economic calendar is relatively light. Investors are expected to focus on the ISM non-manufacturing report and the FOMC minutes. We know that officials are divided in their outlooks for the economy and the appropriate path of short-term interest rates. What’s more interesting is the range of views on uncertainty and the balance of risks (most likely, there will be nothing to suggest that the Fed is in any hurry to raise rates).


Last Last Week YTD return %
DJIA 17685.09 17502.59 1.49%
NASDAQ 4869.85 4768.86 -2.75%
S&P 500 2059.74 2036.71 0.77%
MSCI EAFE 1652.04 1642.18 -3.74%
Russell 2000 1114.03 1075.70 -1.92%

Consumer Money Rates

Last 1 year ago
Prime Rate 3.50 3.25
Fed Funds 0.27 0.12
30-year mortgage 3.71 3.69


Last 1 year ago
Dollars per British Pound 1.436 1.482
Dollars per Euro 1.138 1.073
Japanese Yen per Dollar 112.570 120.130
Canadian Dollars per Dollar 1.300 1.269
Mexican Peso per Dollar 17.279 15.264


Last 1 year ago
Crude Oil 38.34 47.60
Gold 1235.60 1183.20

Bond Rates

Last 1 month ago
2-year treasury 0.72 0.74
10-year treasury 1.77 1.73
10-year municipal (TEY) 2.71 2.65

Treasury Yield Curve – 04/01/2016

As of close of business 03/31/2016

Treasury Yield Curve – 04/01/2016

Economic Calendar

Apr 4th Factory Orders (February)
Apr 5th Trade Balance (February)
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (March)
Apr 6th FOMC Minutes (March 15-16)
Apr 7th Jobless Claims (week ending April 2)

Important Disclosures

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. There are special risks involved with global investing related to market and currency fluctuations, economic and political instability, and different financial accounting standards. The above material has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete. There is no assurance that any trends mentioned will continue in the future. While interest on municipal bonds is generally exempt from federal income tax, it may be subject to the federal alternative minimum tax, state or local taxes. In addition, certain municipal bonds (such as Build America Bonds) are issued without a federal tax exemption, which subjects the related interest income to federal income tax. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss.

US government bonds and treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. US government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Treasury bills are certificates reflecting short-term (less than one year) obligations of the US government.

Commodities trading is generally considered speculative because of the significant potential for investment loss. Markets for commodities are likely to be volatile and there may be sharp price fluctuations even during periods when prices overall are rising. Specific sector investing can be subject to different and greater risks than more diversified investments.

Tax Equiv Muni yields (TEY) assume a 35% tax rate on triple-A rated, tax-exempt insured revenue bonds.

Material prepared by Raymond James for use by its financial advisors.

The information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Data source: Bloomberg, as of close of business March 31st, 2016.

©2016 Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. member FINRA / SIPC.

Frazier Allen
Frazier Allenhttp://www.raymondjames.com/frazierallen
Frazier Allen, WMS, CRPS, Financial Advisor with F&M Bank 50 Franklin Street | Clarksville, TN 37040 | 931-553-2048

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