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Topic: Consumer Confidence Index
Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of September 4th, 2016
Clarksville, TN – The August Employment Report was a little light of expectations. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 151,000 (median forecast: +180,000), with a net revision to June and July of only -1,000. Private-sector payrolls rose by 126,000 – a +150,000 average over the last six months (vs. +221,000 in 2015 and +240,000 in 2014).
The unemployment rate held steady at 4.9% (vs. 5.1% a year ago). Average weekly hours fell (and hours for July were revised lower). Average hourly earnings rose just 0.1%, up 2.4% y/y.
Frazier Allen
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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of August 28th, 2016
Clarksville, TN – In her Jackson Hole speech, Fed Chair Janet Yellen was not expected to provide any significant clues about what will happen at the September 20-21 policy meeting.
Surprise! Yellen provided a strong hint that the central bank is a lot closer to raising short-term interest rates. Yellen said, “I believe the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened in recent months.” Take that in context with other evidence.
Frazier Allen
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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of August 21st, 2016
Clarksville, TN – The FOMC minutes (from the July 26th-27th policy meeting) showed that officials were divided on the timing of the next rate hike. Some felt that the labor market had already tightened enough and that the Fed risked generating financial excesses by keeping rates so low for so long.
Others felt that there was plenty of time to wait for more information and that it would be harder to correct course if the Fed moved too rapidly. Among voting FOMC members, the hawkish view (those wanting to raise rates sooner rather than later) appeared to be a minority.
Frazier Allen
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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of August 14th, 2016
Clarksville, TN – The economic data remained consistent with moderate economic growth and low inflation. Retail sales figures for July disappointed, coming in below expectations (but partly offset by upward revisions to June).
Preliminary productivity figures for the second quarter were weak (averaging a 0.5% annual rate over the last five years). Jobless claims remained very low. The Producer Price Index fell more than expected and pipeline pressures remained mild or slightly deflationary.
Frazier Allen
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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of August 7th, 2016
Clarksville, TN – As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee left short-term interest rates unchanged. In its policy statement, the FOMC noted that “on balance, payrolls and other labor market indicators point to some increase in labor utilization in recent months.”
More importantly, “near-term risks to the economic outlook have diminished.” Kansas City Fed President Esther George dissented in favor of raising the federal funds target range by 25 basis points (to 0.50% to 0.75%).
Frazier Allen
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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of July 24th, 2016
Clarksville, TN – The economic data calendar was thin and reports were of little consequence for the markets. As expected, the European Central Bank left short-term interest rates unchanged and did not alter its asset purchase plans.
ECB President Draghi indicated that policymakers were encouraged by the financial stability following the initial reaction to the Brexit vote. He also said that more information will become available over time and the ECB would act using all possible tools “if needed.”
Frazier Allen
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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of August 2nd, 2015
Clarksville, TN – The week began with an 8.5% drop in the Shanghai Composite Index, which sent markets down worldwide (but the Chinese market appeared to stabilize later). The Fed made only slight alterations to the wording of the monetary policy statement, and did not provide a strong signal that a September move is coming.
Real GDP rose at a 2.3% annual rate in the advance estimate for 2Q15, a bit shy of expectations, but the first quarter was revised to +0.6% (from -0.2%). Annual benchmark revisions showed a somewhat slower rate of growth in the past few years (mostly in 2013), which implies that the output gap (the difference between GDP and potential GDP) is higher than it was thought to be earlier (an important consideration for the Fed).
Frazier Allen
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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of July 29th, 2015
Clarksville, TN – This week the economic calendar is busy. The focus is likely to be on the GDP report (note that financial market participants typically over-emphasize the headline figure – the devil is in the details).
Durable goods orders are expected to have been boosted by a pickup in aircraft orders in June, but the trend in non-transportation orders has been weak in recent months. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index rose sharply in June – so it wouldn’t be unusual to see a modest pullback in July.
Frazier Allen
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Second Quarter ends Strong, but Investors remain Cautious
Clarksville, TN – While the markets managed solid gains over the last three months, investors continue to measure their enthusiasm as the U.S. economy maintains a less-than-robust growth trend heading into the second half of the year.
After a hesitant start to 2014, the markets gained momentum as the winter doldrums gave way to slow spring growth. But ever-present concerns over the Fed’s imminent move to wind down its quantitative easing program and eventually raise rates again have kept stock market euphoria at bay.
Frazier Allen
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