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Clarksville, TN – The August Employment Report was a little light of expectations. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 151,000 (median forecast: +180,000), with a net revision to June and July of only -1,000. Private-sector payrolls rose by 126,000 – a +150,000 average over the last six months (vs. +221,000 in 2015 and +240,000 in 2014).
The unemployment rate held steady at 4.9% (vs. 5.1% a year ago). Average weekly hours fell (and hours for July were revised lower). Average hourly earnings rose just 0.1%, up 2.4% y/y.The ISM Manufacturing Index fell more than expected in August. New orders and production dipped slightly below the breakeven level. Comments from purchasing managers were mixed, ranging from “flat” to “strong.”
The ISM’s survey chief suggested that the August drop was likely an anomaly, as there didn’t appear to be any specific factors for the drop. Consumer confidence improved in August. Unit auto sales fell back (following a strong July).
Personal income and spending figures for July were in line with expectations, but income figures for April, May and June were revised substantially higher, suggesting very good consumer fundamentals.
Next week, the economic calendar thins out considerably. The financial markets could react to any surprises in the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (Tuesday). In making its September policy decision, Fed officials will look beyond the hard data reports and consider anecdotal information, such as contained in the Beige Book. Previous assessments have suggested that growth is modest to moderate.
Consumer Money Rates
Treasury Yield Curve – 09/02/2016
As of close of business 09/01/2016
S&P Sector Performance (YTD) – 09/02/2016
As of close of business 09/01/2016
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Tax Equiv Muni yields (TEY) assume a 35% tax rate on triple-A rated, tax-exempt insured revenue bonds.
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Data source: Bloomberg, as of close of business September 1st, 2016.
Frazier Allen, WMS, CRPS, Financial Advisor with F&M Bank
Web Site: http://www.raymondjames.com/frazierallen
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