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The Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of April 10th, 2012

Weekly Market Snapshot

Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist

Scott J. Brown Ph.D., Chief Economist Raymond James Investment Services
Scott J. Brown Ph.D., Chief Economist Raymond James Investment Services

The minutes of the March 13th Federal Open Market Committee meeting suggested reduced odds of another round of Fed asset purchases (QE3). That shouldn’t have been a surprise to anyone, but the news was taken negatively by the stock market and long-term Treasury yields snapped higher. The European Central Bank left rates changed, but ECP president Draghi seemed a bit hawkish in his post-meeting press conference, renewing concerns about the European financial crisis (I guess, it wouldn’t seem like spring otherwise).

The U.S. economic data (this is being written before the release of the March Employment Report) remained consistent with moderate growth. ISM figures were mixed, but both reports showed further growth in new orders and employment.

Next week, the stock market will get its chance to react to the March payroll figures. The inflation reports show up a little earlier than usual this month. Gasoline prices have risen – but the seasonal adjustment anticipates higher gasoline prices in March, which should dampen the impact on the headline PPI and CPI figures. Core inflation is likely to remain moderate.

Indices

  Last Last Week YTD return %
DJIA 13074.75 13145.82 7.02%
NASDAQ 3068.09 3095.36 17.77%
S&P 500 1398.96 1403.28 11.24%
MSCI EAFE 1512.53 1542.83 7.08%
Russell 2000 820.38 832.22 10.72%

Consumer Money Rates

  Last 1-year ago
Prime Rate 3.25 3.25
Fed Funds 0.17 0.08
30-year mortgage 4.04 4.83

Currencies

  Last 1-year ago
Dollars per British Pound 1.588 1.612
Dollars per Euro 1.314 1.422
Japanese Yen per Dollar 82.640 83.980
Canadian Dollars per Dollar 0.996 0.968
Mexican Peso per Dollar 12.821 11.860

Commodities

  Last 1-year ago
Crude Oil 101.47 108.47
Gold 1618.69 1433.55

Bond Rates

  Last 1-month ago
2-year treasury 0.35 0.29
10-year treasury 2.21 2.01
10-year municipal (TEY) 3.29 2.84

Treasury Yield Curve – 4/05/2012

Treasury Yield Curve – 4/05/2012

S&P Sector Performance (YTD) – 4/05/2012

S&P Sector Performance (YTD) – 4/05/2012

Economic Calendar

April 9th

 —

Bernanke Speaks (financial regulation)
April 10th

 —

Small Business Optimism Index (March)
April 11th

 —

Import Prices (March)
Fed Beige Book
April 12th

 —

Jobless Claims (week ending April 7th)
Producer Price Index (March)
Trade Balance (February)
April 13th

 —

Consumer Price Index (March)
Industrial Production (March)
Consumer Sentiment (mid-April)
April 16th

 —

Retail Sales (March)
April 25th

 —

FOMC Policy Decision
Bernanke Press Briefing
April 27th

 —

Real GDP (1Q12, advance estimate)
May 4th

 —

Employment Report (April)

Treasury Yield Curve – 3/30/2012

Treasury Yield Curve – 3/30/2012

S&P Sector Performance (YTD) – 3/30/2012

S&P Sector Performance (YTD) – 3/30/2012

Economic Calendar

April 1st

ISM Manufacturing Index (March)
April 2nd

FOMC Minutes (March 13th)
Motor Vehicle Sales (March)
April 4th

ADP Payroll Estimate (March)
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (March)
April 5th

Jobless Claims (week ending March 31st)
April 6th

Good Friday (stock market closed, bonds open half a day)
Employment Report (March)
April 11th

Fed Beige Book
April 12th

Producer Price Index (March)
April 13th

Consumer Price Index (March)
Industrial Production (March)
April 25th

FOMC Policy Decision
Bernanke Press Briefing
April 27th

Real GDP (1Q12, advance estimate)
June 20th

Bernanke Press Briefing

Important Disclosures

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. There are special risks involved with global investing related to market and currency fluctuations, economic and political instability, and different financial accounting standards. The above material has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete. There is no assurance that any trends mentioned will continue in the future. While interest on municipal bonds is generally exempt from federal income tax, it may be subject to the federal alternative minimum tax, state or local taxes. In addition, certain municipal bonds (such as Build America Bonds) are issued without a federal tax exemption, which subjects the related interest income to federal income tax. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss.

US government bonds and treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. US government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Treasury bills are certificates reflecting short-term (less than one year) obligations of the US government.

Commodities trading is generally considered speculative because of the significant potential for investment loss. Markets for commodities are likely to be volatile and there may be sharp price fluctuations even during periods when prices overall are rising. Specific sector investing can be subject to different and greater risks than more diversified investments.

Tax Equiv Muni yields (TEY) assume a 35% tax rate on triple-A rated, tax-exempt insured revenue bonds.

Material prepared by Raymond James for use by its financial advisors.

The information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Data source: Bloomberg, as of close of business April 4th, 2012.

©2012 Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. member FINRA / SIPC.

Frazier Allen
Frazier Allenhttp://www.raymondjames.com/frazierallen
Frazier Allen, WMS, CRPS, Financial Advisor with F&M Bank 50 Franklin Street | Clarksville, TN 37040 | 931-553-2048
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