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Clarksville, TN – The economic calendar was relatively thin. The Producer Price Index rose more than expected in March, reflecting a pickup in services (which had fallen in February). Details continue to suggest limited inflation pressure in the pipeline.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey data continued to suggest a large amount of slack in the job market (hiring rates and quit rates are trending flat, still low by historical standards). The IMF slightly lowered its forecast for global growth this year and next, with larger downward shifts in the outlook for Russia and Brazil.The stock market was encouraged by the FOMC minutes, which suggested that the Fed would be in no hurry to raise short-term interest rates and would likely raise them gradual once they start. However, a sell-off in technology shares led the market lower on Thursday. Bond yields fell.
Next week, the mid-month economic reports pour in. The focus is likely to be on the retail sales report (Monday), which should reflect a rebound from adverse weather (unit auto sales snapped sharply higher in March). Fed Chair Janet Yellen will speak twice, but only the Wednesday speech has potential to move the markets.
Weather is still a factor in much of major economic reports (as some of the “strength” will merely reflect a rebound from bad weather). The Beige Book may help us to gauge the underlying strength of the economy. Friday is a holiday.
Consumer Money Rates
Treasury Yield Curve – 4/11/2014
S&P Sector Performance (YTD) – 4/11/2014
US government bonds and treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. US government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Treasury bills are certificates reflecting short-term (less than one year) obligations of the US government.
Commodities trading is generally considered speculative because of the significant potential for investment loss. Markets for commodities are likely to be volatile and there may be sharp price fluctuations even during periods when prices overall are rising. Specific sector investing can be subject to different and greater risks than more diversified investments.
Tax Equiv Muni yields (TEY) assume a 35% tax rate on triple-A rated, tax-exempt insured revenue bonds.
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Data source: Bloomberg, as of close of business April 10th, 2013.
Frazier Allen, WMS, CRPS, Financial Advisor with F&M Bank
Web Site: http://www.raymondjames.com/frazierallen
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