Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of March 11th, 2015

Clarksville, TN – The economic data were mixed, but the February Employment Report was stronger than expected. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 295,000 (±105,000), with a revision to January of -18,000. The BLS indicated that the payroll survey missed most of the bad weather that hit last month.

The household survey showed that 328,000 could not make it to work due to bad weather, which is about average (it was 601,000 in February 2014). Average weekly hours held steady (no weather impact).

Average hourly earnings edged up 0.1% (+2.0% y/y) – still at a low trend (note that the Consumer Price Index fell 0.1% over the 12 months ending in January, so purchasing power is up sharply).

The unemployment rate fell to 5.5% (vs. 5.7%), due partly to a decrease in labor force participation. The employment/population ratio held steady at 59.3% (vs. 58.8% a year ago).

Market participants viewed the jobs report as likely to pull forward the date of the Fed’s liftoff on short-term interest rates (June, rather than September). Stocks stumbled, bond yields rose, and the dollar strengthened further.

Next week, the economic calendar thins out. The focus is expected to be on Thursday’s retail sales figures. However, February is a transition month for most retailers, falling between the January clearance sales and Easter shopping.

Gasoline prices rebounded last month (still down substantially in recent months), which will add to the retail sales total. Investors are likely to look ahead to the upcoming Fed policy meeting.

Important Disclosures

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. There are special risks involved with global investing related to market and currency fluctuations, economic and political instability, and different financial accounting standards. The above material has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete. There is no assurance that any trends mentioned will continue in the future. While interest on municipal bonds is generally exempt from federal income tax, it may be subject to the federal alternative minimum tax, state or local taxes. In addition, certain municipal bonds (such as Build America Bonds) are issued without a federal tax exemption, which subjects the related interest income to federal income tax. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss.

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Tax Equiv Muni yields (TEY) assume a 35% tax rate on triple-A rated, tax-exempt insured revenue bonds.

Material prepared by Raymond James for use by its financial advisors.

The information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Data source: Bloomberg, as of close of business March 5th, 2015.

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