Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of October 9th, 2016

Clarksville, TN – The economic data were mixed. The ISM surveys both surprised to the upside, suggesting that the August slowdown was temporary. Unit auto sales were down from a year ago, but up relative to August on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Nonfarm payrolls rose a bit less than expected, while the unemployment rate ticked modestly higher – the start of the school year makes the September figures suspect, but the underlying trends suggest further improvement in overall labor market conditions.

Average hourly earnings rose 0.2%, up 2.6% year-over-year, with mixed results across industries.Still, the employment report did not much alter the overall consensus view of the economy (moderate growth).

The IMF left its global growth estimates unchanged in its revised World Economic Outlook, but expectations for U.S. growth were lowered for 2016 and 2017. U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May said Article 50 would be submitted by the end of March, kicking off a two-year negation process for exiting the European Union. Fears of a hard Brexit sent the pound reeling (to a 31-year low vs. the U.S. dollar).

Next week, the bond market is off on Monday for the Columbus Day holiday (the stock market will be open). Market participants will be interested in the FOMC minutes, although we may not learn much (we know that officials were divided on whether to raise rates). Retail sales are likely to have improved last month, following softness in July and August (watch for possible revisions).

Important Disclosures

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. There are special risks involved with global investing related to market and currency fluctuations, economic and political instability, and different financial accounting standards. The above material has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete. There is no assurance that any trends mentioned will continue in the future. While interest on municipal bonds is generally exempt from federal income tax, it may be subject to the federal alternative minimum tax, state or local taxes. In addition, certain municipal bonds (such as Build America Bonds) are issued without a federal tax exemption, which subjects the related interest income to federal income tax. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss.

US government bonds and treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. US government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Treasury bills are certificates reflecting short-term (less than one year) obligations of the US government.

Commodities trading is generally considered speculative because of the significant potential for investment loss. Markets for commodities are likely to be volatile and there may be sharp price fluctuations even during periods when prices overall are rising. Specific sector investing can be subject to different and greater risks than more diversified investments.

Tax Equiv Muni yields (TEY) assume a 35% tax rate on triple-A rated, tax-exempt insured revenue bonds.

Material prepared by Raymond James for use by its financial advisors.

The information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Data source: Bloomberg, as of close of business September 29th, 2016.

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