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Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of April 14th, 2013

 

Weekly Market Snapshot

Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist

Scott J. Brown Ph.D., Chief Economist Raymond James Investment ServicesThe economic data were mixed. However, the key release, the retail sales report, disappointed. Retail sales fell more than expected in March, while figures for January and February were revised lower. Recall that the February personal income and spending numbers, released on Good Friday, pointed to a much better growth rate in consumer spending than had been anticipated earlier.

The retail sales report, in turn, should dampen the 1Q13 GDP outlook to some extent and reduce GDP projections for 2Q13. Consumer sentiment fell in the mid-month assessment. Jobless claims fell back, after having risen in the two previous weeks, suggesting that the recent moves merely reflecting some noise in the data.

FOMC minutes from the March 19-20 policy meeting added little new information to the current debate about when to begin trimming the pace of asset purchases. The majority of Fed officials expect to start reducing asset purchases sometime in the second half of the year, stopping at year-end. However, Fed future moves will depend on labor market conditions.

The stock market rose to new highs (S&P500), but succumbed to the weaker-than-expected retail sales data (still, losses seemed to be generally contained). Bond yields fell.

Next week, the important economic data bunch up on Tuesday. The CPI should reflect lower gasoline prices (the decline will be amplified by the seasonal adjustment), with mild core inflation. Residential construction figures may be subject to weather effects. Industrial production should be boosted by cooler temperatures (increased output of utilities), while manufacturing output is likely to appear relatively lackluster. The Fed’s Beige Book will provide anecdotal color on the current economic situation.

Indices

  Last Last Week YTD return %
DJIA 14865.14 14606.11 13.44%
NASDAQ 3300.16 3224.98 9.29%
S&P 500 1593.37 1559.98 11.72%
MSCI EAFE 1724.04 1659.21 7.48%
Russell 2000 947.05 925.66 11.50%

Consumer Money Rates

  Last 1-year ago
Prime Rate 3.25 3.25
Fed Funds 0.16 0.08
30-year mortgage 3.54 3.88

Currencies

  Last 1-year ago
Dollars per British Pound 1.540 1.591
Dollars per Euro 1.312 1.312
Japanese Yen per Dollar 99.610 80.980
Canadian Dollars per Dollar 1.010/td> 1.003
Mexican Peso per Dollar 12.066 13.141

Commodities

  Last 1-year ago
Crude Oil 93.51 102.70
Gold 1566.05 1659.25

Bond Rates

  Last 1-month ago
2-year treasury 0.23 0.25
10-year treasury 1.73 2.00
10-year municipal (TEY) 3.06 3.26

Treasury Yield Curve – 04/12/2013

Treasury Yield Curve – 04/12/2013

S&P Sector Performance (YTD) – 04/12/2013

S&P Sector Performance (YTD) – 04/12/2013

Economic Calendar

April 15th

 —

Empire State Manufacturing Index (April)
Homebuilder Sentiment (April)
April 16th

 —

Consumer Price Index (March)
Housing Starts, Building Permits (March)
Industrial Production (March)
IMF World Economic Outlook
April 17th

 —

Fed Beige Book
April 18th

 —

Jobless Claims (week ending April 13th)
Philadelphia Fed Index (April)
Leading Economic Indicators (March)
April 24th

 —

Durable Goods Orders (March)
April 26th

 —

Real GDP (1Q13, advance)
May 1st

 —

FOMC Policy Decision (no press briefing)
May 3rd

 —

Employment Report (April)

Important Disclosures

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. There are special risks involved with global investing related to market and currency fluctuations, economic and political instability, and different financial accounting standards. The above material has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete. There is no assurance that any trends mentioned will continue in the future. While interest on municipal bonds is generally exempt from federal income tax, it may be subject to the federal alternative minimum tax, state or local taxes. In addition, certain municipal bonds (such as Build America Bonds) are issued without a federal tax exemption, which subjects the related interest income to federal income tax. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss.

US government bonds and treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. US government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Treasury bills are certificates reflecting short-term (less than one year) obligations of the US government.

Commodities trading is generally considered speculative because of the significant potential for investment loss. Markets for commodities are likely to be volatile and there may be sharp price fluctuations even during periods when prices overall are rising. Specific sector investing can be subject to different and greater risks than more diversified investments.

Tax Equiv Muni yields (TEY) assume a 35% tax rate on triple-A rated, tax-exempt insured revenue bonds.

Material prepared by Raymond James for use by its financial advisors.

The information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Data source: Bloomberg, as of close of business April 4th, 2013.

©2013 Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. member FINRA / SIPC.


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