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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of May 1st, 2016

 

F&M Investment Services - Raymond James - Clarksville, TNClarksville, TN – As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee left short-term interest rates unchanged. In its policy statement, the FOMC noted that “labor market conditions have improved further even as growth in economic activity appears to have slowed.”

The key phrase from the mid-March statement, “global economic and financial developments continue to pose risks,” was removed, although officials promised to closely monitor conditions. Equities rallied on the Fed statement (in part, perhaps, because the meeting was simply out of the way), but global markets weakened after the Bank of Japan failed to stimulate further.

Frazier Allen

Frazier Allen

The economic data were mostly in line with expectations.

Real GDP rose at a 0.5% annual rate in the advance estimate for 1Q16. Looking at the key details, consumer spending growth was a bit better than expected, while business fixed investment fell more than anticipated (with more than three-quarters of the decline concentrated in energy-related structures).

The early Easter likely had some impact on a number of GDP components, but first quarter GDP growth figures have been softer than average in recent years. The Employment Cost Index rose 0.6% for the three months ending in March, up a lackluster 1.9% year-over-year.

Next week, fresh April figures arrive. The ISM surveys are likely to remain consistent with moderate growth in the near term. Auto sales were likely restrained in March by the early Easter – if so, we should see a healthy bounce-back in April. The Employment Report should show further strength.

Nonfarm payrolls are likely to have risen at a moderately strong pace, limited perhaps by a tighter job market. The unemployment rate should be flat or slightly lower, held up by increased labor force participation.

Indices

Last Last Week YTD return %
DJIA 17830.76 17982.52 2.33%
NASDAQ 4805.29 4945.89 -4.04%
S&P 500 2075.81 2091.48 1.56%
MSCI EAFE 1698.26 1716.51 -1.05%
Russell 2000 1140.40 1135.77 0.40%

Consumer Money Rates

Last 1 year ago
Prime Rate 3.50 3.25
Fed Funds 0.38 0.06
30-year mortgage 3.68 3.68

Currencies

Last 1 year ago
Dollars per British Pound 1.461 1.544
Dollars per Euro 1.135 1.113
Japanese Yen per Dollar 108.11 119.02
Canadian Dollars per Dollar 1.256 1.202
Mexican Peso per Dollar 17.271 15.229

Commodities

Last 1 year ago
Crude Oil 46.03 58.58
Gold 1266.40 1210.00

Bond Rates

Last 1 month ago
2-year treasury 0.79 0.74
10-year treasury 1.85 1.73
10-year municipal (TEY) 2.57 2.65


Treasury Yield Curve
– 04/29/2016

As of close of business 04/28/2016

Treasury Yield Curve – 04/29/2016

Economic Calendar

May 2nd Construction Spending (March)
ISM Manufacturing Index (April)
May 3rd Unit Auto Sales (April)
May 4th ADP Payroll Estimate (April)
Productivity (1Q16, preliminary)
Trade Balance (March)
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (April)
May 5th Jobless Claims (week ending April 30)

Important Disclosures

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. There are special risks involved with global investing related to market and currency fluctuations, economic and political instability, and different financial accounting standards. The above material has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete. There is no assurance that any trends mentioned will continue in the future. While interest on municipal bonds is generally exempt from federal income tax, it may be subject to the federal alternative minimum tax, state or local taxes. In addition, certain municipal bonds (such as Build America Bonds) are issued without a federal tax exemption, which subjects the related interest income to federal income tax. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss.

US government bonds and treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. US government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Treasury bills are certificates reflecting short-term (less than one year) obligations of the US government.

Commodities trading is generally considered speculative because of the significant potential for investment loss. Markets for commodities are likely to be volatile and there may be sharp price fluctuations even during periods when prices overall are rising. Specific sector investing can be subject to different and greater risks than more diversified investments.

Tax Equiv Muni yields (TEY) assume a 35% tax rate on triple-A rated, tax-exempt insured revenue bonds.

Material prepared by Raymond James for use by its financial advisors.

The information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Data source: Bloomberg, as of close of business April 28th, 2016.

©2016 Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. member FINRA / SIPC.


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