Clarksville, TN – Next week, the markets will be interested in the ISM Manufacturing Index, but the focus should be on the September Employment Report. Seasonal adjustment is an issue in September.
We can expect to add more than 1.4 million education jobs (public and private) before adjustment, with hundreds of thousands of seasonal job losses in other areas. So it seems a little silly to worry about the nearest 20,000 or so in the adjusted payroll figure. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady (at 7.3%) or edge a bit lower
Indices
| Last | Last Week | YTD return % | |
| DJIA | 15328.30 | 15636.55 | 16.97% |
| NASDAQ | 3787.43 | 3789.384 | 25.43% |
| S&P 500 | 1698.67 | 1722.34 | 19.11% |
| MSCI EAFE | 1832.08 | 1844.39 | 14.22% |
| Russell 2000 | 1078.41 | 1075.27 | 26.97% |
Consumer Money Rates
| Last | 1-year ago | |
| Prime Rate | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| Fed Funds | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| 30-year mortgage | 4.32 | 3.40 |
Currencies
| Last | 1-year ago | |
| Dollars per British Pound | 1.602 | 1.616 |
| Dollars per Euro | 1.347 | 1.286 |
| Japanese Yen per Dollar | 99.050 | 77.790 |
| Canadian Dollars per Dollar | 1.032 | 0.984 |
| Mexican Peso per Dollar | 13.054 | 12.887 |
Commodities
| Last | 1-year ago | |
| Crude Oil | 103.03 | 89.98 |
| Gold | 1322.63 | 1748.75 |
Bond Rates
| Last | 1-month ago | |
| 2-year treasury | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| 10-year treasury | 2.63 | 2.76 |
| 10-year municipal (TEY) | 4.42 | 4.89 |
Treasury Yield Curve – 09/27/2013>
S&P Sector Performance (YTD) – 09/27/2013
Economic Calendar
| September 30th |
— |
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (September) |
| October 1st |
— |
Continuing Resolution needed ISM Manufacturing Index (September) Motor Vehicle Sales (September) |
| October 2nd |
— |
ADP Payroll Estimate (September) |
| October 3rd |
— |
Jobless Claims (week ending September 28th) ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (September) |
| October 4th |
— |
Employment Report (September) |
| October 9th |
— |
FOMC Minutes (September 17th-18th) |
| October 11th |
— |
Retail Sales (September) |
| October 14th |
— |
Columbus Day (bond market closed) |
| Mid-October |
— |
Debt Ceiling becomes binding |
| October 30th |
— |
FOMC Policy Decision, no press briefing |
Important Disclosures
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. There are special risks involved with global investing related to market and currency fluctuations, economic and political instability, and different financial accounting standards. The above material has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete. There is no assurance that any trends mentioned will continue in the future. While interest on municipal bonds is generally exempt from federal income tax, it may be subject to the federal alternative minimum tax, state or local taxes. In addition, certain municipal bonds (such as Build America Bonds) are issued without a federal tax exemption, which subjects the related interest income to federal income tax. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss.US government bonds and treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. US government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Treasury bills are certificates reflecting short-term (less than one year) obligations of the US government.
Commodities trading is generally considered speculative because of the significant potential for investment loss. Markets for commodities are likely to be volatile and there may be sharp price fluctuations even during periods when prices overall are rising. Specific sector investing can be subject to different and greater risks than more diversified investments.
Tax Equiv Muni yields (TEY) assume a 35% tax rate on triple-A rated, tax-exempt insured revenue bonds.
Material prepared by Raymond James for use by its financial advisors.
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Data source: Bloomberg, as of close of business September 26th, 2013.
©2013 Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. member FINRA / SIPC.
