Clarksville, TN – The economic data reports were mixed. Retail sales picked up in March, following a weak trend in the three previous months. Industrial production fell 0.6%, reflecting a plunge in oil and gas drilling and a decrease in the output of utilities (more normal temperatures).
Manufacturing output edged up 0.1%, with mixed results across industries. Building permits and housing starts fell in March, largely reflecting the usual volatility in the multi-family sector. Single-family permits, the key figure in the report, rose 2.1% (up 4.1% y/y).
The Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% (-0.1% y/y), up 0.2% excluding food and energy (+1.8% y/y). Real hourly earnings edged up 0.1%, versus -0.1% in February and +1.2% in January (+2.2% y/y).The financial markets seemed to be searching for direction. In its revised World Economic Outlook, the IMF left its headline projection of global growth little changed from the January forecast. However, the outlook for U.S. growth was revised lower (from +3.6% to +3.1% in 2015), while the outlooks for the euro area and Japan were revised higher (reflecting the impact of a stronger dollar). Rumors of possible plans for a Greek exit from the euro led to increased market anxiety Friday.
Next week, Greece is once again likely to be the focus of attention, as it reaches another critical juncture. We’ve seen this several times before (the can gets kicked down the road), but those calling for a Grexit have become more vocal. The U.S. economic calendar is relatively thin, but figures on home sales and durable goods are often erratic and have the potential to surprise.
Indices
Last | Last Week | YTD return % | |
DJIA | 18105.77 | 17958.73 | 1.59% |
NASDAQ | 5007.79 | 4974.57 | 5.74% |
S&P 500 | 2104.99 | 2091.18 | 2.24% |
MSCI EAFE | 1912.32 | 1895.75 | 7.74% |
Russell 2000 | 1272.90 | 1259.11 | 5.66% |
Consumer Money Rates
Last | 1 year ago | |
Prime Rate | 3.25 | 3.25 |
Fed Funds | 0.13 | 0.08 |
30-year mortgage | 3.65 | 4.27 |
 Currencies
Last | 1 year ago | |
Dollars per British Pound | 1.491 | 1.679 |
Dollars per Euro | 1.071 | 1.384 |
Japanese Yen per Dollar | 118.990 | 102.260 |
Canadian Dollars per Dollar | 1.227 | 1.100 |
Mexican Peso per Dollar | 15.227 | 13.059 |
 Commodities
Last | 1 year ago | |
Crude Oil | 56.71 | 103.76 |
Gold | 1208.06 | 1303.97 |
 Bond Rates
Last | 1 month ago | |
2-year treasury | 0.51 | 0.58 |
10-year treasury | 1.90 | 1.94 |
10-year municipal (TEY) | 3.04 | 3.36 |
 Treasury Yield Curve – 04/17/2015
S&P Sector Performance (YTD) – 04/17/2015
Economic Calendar
April 22nd | — | Existing Home Sales (March) |
April 23rd | — | Jobless Claims (week ending April 18) New Home Sales (March) |
April 24th | — | Durable Goods Orders (March) |
April 28th | — | Consumer Confidence (April) |
Important Disclosures
US government bonds and treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. US government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Treasury bills are certificates reflecting short-term (less than one year) obligations of the US government.
Commodities trading is generally considered speculative because of the significant potential for investment loss. Markets for commodities are likely to be volatile and there may be sharp price fluctuations even during periods when prices overall are rising. Specific sector investing can be subject to different and greater risks than more diversified investments.
Tax Equiv Muni yields (TEY) assume a 35% tax rate on triple-A rated, tax-exempt insured revenue bonds.
Material prepared by Raymond James for use by its financial advisors.
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Data source: Bloomberg, as of close of business April 16th, 2015.