Clarksville, TN – In her nomination hearing before the Senate Banking Committee, Janet Yellen took a balanced approach in discussing how she would conduct monetary policy, but the markets took that as “dovish.”
She gave no hint that the pace of asset purchases would be tapered anytime soon, but she also cautioned that the program could not last indefinitely. She noted that the economy is far from fully recovered and indicated that “we have farther to go” in the labor market.The economic calendar was relatively thin. Industrial production edged down in October, but that partly reflected a pullback in the output of utilities (which was boosted by colder-than-normal temperatures in September).
Manufacturing output rose moderately. The trade deficit widened unexpectedly in September, implying a downward revision to the 3Q13 GDP growth estimate.
Next week, the important stuff bunches up on Wednesday, with the reports on retail sales, the CPI, and existing home sales. That afternoon, the Fed will release the minutes of its policy meeting from late October. The outcome of that meeting was never much in doubt, but that doesn’t mean that there weren’t active policy debates.
Investors will be looking for clues on what the Fed will do in December. Officials are likely to have remained divided on when to begin tapering the pace of asset purchases. They may have also discussed possible changes to the forward guidance (on short-term interest rates), such as whether to lower the unemployment rate threshold (currently 6.5%).
|Last||Last Week||YTD return %|
Consumer Money Rates
|Dollars per British Pound||1.607||1.586|
|Dollars per Euro||1.347||1.275|
|Japanese Yen per Dollar||99.920||80.150|
|Canadian Dollars per Dollar||1.047||1.003|
|Mexican Peso per Dollar||12.983||13.231|
|10-year municipal (TEY)||4.38||4.40|
Treasury Yield Curve – 11/15/2013
S&P Sector Performance (YTD) – 11/15/2013
|Homebuilder Sentiment (November)|
|Employment Cost Index (3Q13)
Bernanke Speaks (“Communication and Monetary Policy”)
|Consumer Price Index (October)
Retail Sales (October)
Existing Home Sales (October)
FOMC Minutes (October 29-30)
|Jobless Claims (week ending November 16)
Producer Price Index (October)
Philly Fed Index (November)
|Pending Home Sales Index (October)|
|Building Permits, Housing Starts (September, October)
Consumer Confidence (November)
|Durable Goods Orders (October)|
|Thanksgiving (markets closed)|
|Employment Report (November)|
|FOMC Policy Decision, Bernanke Press Briefing|
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The information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Data source: Bloomberg, as of close of business November 14th, 2013.