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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of November 24th, 2013

 

F&M Investment Services - Raymond James - Clarksville, TNClarksville, TN – The minutes of the October 29th-30th Federal Open Market Committee meeting showed that monetary policymakers still expected the economy to improve in line with their earlier projections “and would thus warrant trimming the pace of purchases in coming months.”

Officials also considered scenarios where the Fed could taper “before an unambiguous further improvement in the outlook was apparent.” The stock market pulled back a bit on the taper talk, but rose to new highs anyway.

Frazier Allen

Frazier Allen

The economic data remained consistent with moderate growth. Retail sales rose by 0.4% in October, up 0.2% excluding autos, held down partly by lower gasoline prices. Gasoline was also a factor in the Consumer Price Index, which fell 0.2% in September (+1.0% from a year ago), up 0.1% ex-food & energy.

Existing home sales fell 3.2% in October, following 1.9% decline in September. The National Association of Realtors cited continued supply constraints and a decrease in affordability (higher prices and higher mortgage rates), but the government shut down may have played a small role.

Next week, some important economic data reports will arrive before the holiday. The Pending Home Sales Index should provide further insight into the housing sector. Two months of residential construction data will arrive on Tuesday, along with the advance estimate of consumer confidence.

Durable goods orders are expected to reflect a drop in aircraft orders at Boeing. Ex-transportation, durable goods orders and shipments have been trending at a relatively lackluster pace. The markets will close early on Friday. Have a Happy Thanksgiving!

Indices

  Last Last Week YTD return %
DJIA 16009.99 15876.22 22.18%
NASDAQ 3969.16 3972.74 31.45%
S&P 500 1795.85 1790.62 25.92%
MSCI EAFE 1866.28 1862.30 16.35%
Russell 2000 1119.62 1111.44 31.82%

Consumer Money Rates

  Last 1-year ago
Prime Rate 3.25 3.25
Fed Funds 0.08 0.17
30-year mortgage 4.22 3.31

Currencies

  Last 1-year ago
Dollars per British Pound 1.616 1.594
Dollars per Euro 1.346 1.283
Japanese Yen per Dollar 101.020 82.460
Canadian Dollars per Dollar 1.052 0.997
Mexican Peso per Dollar 13.071 13.034

Commodities

  Last 1-year ago
Crude Oil 95.09 86.93
Gold 1244.91 1729.90

Bond Rates

  Last 1-month ago
2-year treasury 0.28 0.30
10-year treasury 2.77 2.50
10-year municipal (TEY) 4.34 4.42

Treasury Yield Curve – 11/22/2013

Treasury Yield Curve – 11/22/2013

S&P Sector Performance (YTD) – 11/22/2013

 S&P Sector Performance (YTD) – 11/22/2013

Economic Calendar

November 25th

 —

Pending Home Sales Index (October)
November 26th

 —

Building Permits, Housing Starts (September, October)
Case-Shiller Home Prices (September)
Consumer Confidence (November)
November 27th

 —

Jobless Claims (week ending November 23rd)
Durable Goods Orders (October)
Chicago PM Index (November)
Consumer Sentiment (November)
Leading Economic Indicators (October)
November 28th

 —

Thanksgiving (markets closed)
November 29th

 —

Markets close early
December 2nd

 —

ISM Manufacturing Index (November)
December 4th

 —

New Home Sales (September, October)
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (November)
Fed Beige Book
December 6th

 —

Employment Report (November)
December 12th

 —

Retail Sales (November)
December 18th

 —

FOMC Policy Decision, Bernanke Press Briefing

Important Disclosures

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. There are special risks involved with global investing related to market and currency fluctuations, economic and political instability, and different financial accounting standards. The above material has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete. There is no assurance that any trends mentioned will continue in the future. While interest on municipal bonds is generally exempt from federal income tax, it may be subject to the federal alternative minimum tax, state or local taxes. In addition, certain municipal bonds (such as Build America Bonds) are issued without a federal tax exemption, which subjects the related interest income to federal income tax. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss.

US government bonds and treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. US government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Treasury bills are certificates reflecting short-term (less than one year) obligations of the US government.

Commodities trading is generally considered speculative because of the significant potential for investment loss. Markets for commodities are likely to be volatile and there may be sharp price fluctuations even during periods when prices overall are rising. Specific sector investing can be subject to different and greater risks than more diversified investments.

Tax Equiv Muni yields (TEY) assume a 35% tax rate on triple-A rated, tax-exempt insured revenue bonds.

Material prepared by Raymond James for use by its financial advisors.

The information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Data source: Bloomberg, as of close of business November 21st, 2013.

©2013 Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. member FINRA / SIPC.


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