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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of January 13th, 2014


F&M Investment Services - Raymond James - Clarksville, TNClarksville, TN – The December Employment Report was a mixed bag. Nonfarm payrolls rose a disappointing 74,000 (median forecast: +195,000, although market participants were anticipating an upside surprise following a stronger-than-expected ADP estimate).

The November payroll figure was revised to +241,000 (from +203,000). Manufacturing rose by 9,000. Construction fell by 16,000, with weakness concentrated in nonresidential and in heavy construction and civil engineering (residential rose 6,200).

Frazier Allen

Frazier Allen

Retail rose by 55,300, while temp-help advanced 40,400. Healthcare fell by 6,000, following an above-average gain in November. Education fell by 13,500.

The unemployment rate fell to 6.7% (from 7.0% in November), reflecting a further drop in labor force participation. Annual benchmark revisions to the household survey data were minor.

The employment/population ratio held steady at 58.6%, the same as a year ago. Note that seasonal adjustment is often tricky in December. The payroll figures will be revised (annual benchmark revisions to the establishment survey data will arrive next month).

The FOMC Minutes from the December 17th-18th policy meeting showed that Fed officials were in general agreement about a cautious initial tapering in the pace of asset purchases. Tapering is not on a set path, but most FOMC members expected to end the asset purchase program in the second half of the year (which would work out to about –$20 billion per quarter).

Officials were worried about an adverse reaction in the financial markets. If financial conditions tighten excessive, the Fed would likely slow the rate of tapering (all else equal).

Next week, the economic calendar will be busy. The focus is expected to be on the retail sales figures, but Wednesday’s Beige Book could reflect an upgrade in the assessment of the economy. Industrial production is expected to be relatively soft.


  Last Last Week YTD return %
DJIA 16444.76 16441.35 -0.80%
NASDAQ 4156.19 4143.07 -0.49%
S&P 500 1838.13 1831.98 -0.55%
MSCI EAFE 1892.69 1894.74 -1.20%
Russell 2000 1158.35 1150.72 -0.45%

Consumer Money Rates

  Last 1-year ago
Prime Rate 3.25 3.25
Fed Funds 0.08 0.27
30-year mortgage 4.62 3.40


  Last 1-year ago
Dollars per British Pound 1.646 1.603
Dollars per Euro 1.358 1.307
Japanese Yen per Dollar 104.770 87.940
Canadian Dollars per Dollar 1.085 0.987
Mexican Peso per Dollar 13.125 12.753


  Last 1-year ago
Crude Oil 91.66 93.10
Gold 1227.76 1653.35

Bond Rates

  Last 1-month ago
2-year treasury 0.39 0.33
10-year treasury 2.90 2.87
10-year municipal (TEY) 4.55 4.48

Treasury Yield Curve – 01/10/2014

Treasury Yield Curve – 01/10/2014

S&P Sector Performance (YTD) – 01/10/2014

S&P Sector Performance (YTD) – 01/10/2014

Economic Calendar

January 14th


Retail Sales (December)
January 15th


Producer Price Index (December)
Empire State Manufacturing Index (January)
Fed Beige Book
January 16th


Jobless Claims (week ending January 11th)
Consumer Price Index (December)
Philadelphia Fed Index (January)
Homebuilder Sentiment (January)
January 17th


Building Permits, Housing Starts (December)
Industrial Production (December)
UM Consumer Sentiment (mid-January)
January 20th


MLK, Jr. Holiday (markets closed)
January 29th


FOMC Policy Decision, no press briefing

Important Disclosures

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. There are special risks involved with global investing related to market and currency fluctuations, economic and political instability, and different financial accounting standards. The above material has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete. There is no assurance that any trends mentioned will continue in the future. While interest on municipal bonds is generally exempt from federal income tax, it may be subject to the federal alternative minimum tax, state or local taxes. In addition, certain municipal bonds (such as Build America Bonds) are issued without a federal tax exemption, which subjects the related interest income to federal income tax. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss.

US government bonds and treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. US government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Treasury bills are certificates reflecting short-term (less than one year) obligations of the US government.

Commodities trading is generally considered speculative because of the significant potential for investment loss. Markets for commodities are likely to be volatile and there may be sharp price fluctuations even during periods when prices overall are rising. Specific sector investing can be subject to different and greater risks than more diversified investments.

Tax Equiv Muni yields (TEY) assume a 35% tax rate on triple-A rated, tax-exempt insured revenue bonds.

Material prepared by Raymond James for use by its financial advisors.

The information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Data source: Bloomberg, as of close of business January 9th, 2013.

©2013 Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. member FINRA / SIPC.




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