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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of April 21st, 2016

F&M Investment Services - Raymond James - Clarksville, TNClarksville, TN – The economic data were mixed, but mostly on the soft side of expectations. Retail sales fell in March, reflecting a pullback in auto sales (dealers noted lean inventories of popular models and a lack of dealer incentives). Ex-autos, gasoline and building materials, sales were flat (+3.2% y/y), but February was revised higher (making it about a wash relative to expectations).

Industrial production fell 0.6% in March, reflecting warm temperatures (another drop in the output of utilities) and a further contraction in oil and gas well drilling (down 72% since the end of 2014).

Frazier Allen
Frazier Allen

Manufacturing output fell 0.2% (+0.5% y/y), reflecting a 1.6% drop in auto production (+5.0% y/y), but that may have reflected an inadequate adjustment for the early Easter (if so, we should see a pretty good pop in the April numbers).

Inflation figures were also lower than anticipated. Core inflation, which had appeared to pick up in January and February, was mild in March.

The inflation figures, combined with the softer economic figures from the last couple of weeks, add to the view that the Fed will be more gradual in raising short-term interest rates in the months ahead. However, much of this news is already factored in, and anecdotal evidence suggests a pickup in overall economic growth into April.

Next week, the economic calendar thins out. The residential construction figures will be important, but seasonal adjustment is difficult and the early Easter may distort the numbers. Officials from the European Central Bank will meet to discuss policy. No change is expected, but investors will want to hear what ECB President Draghi has to say in the post-meeting press conference. Recall that the ECB had pulled out all the stops six weeks ago, but Draghi snatched defeat from the jaws of victory by suggesting that the ECB wouldn’t do any more to boost growth.


Last Last Week YTD return %
DJIA 17926.43 17541.96 2.88%
NASDAQ 4945.89 4848.37 -1.23%
S&P 500 2082.78 2041.91 1.90%
MSCI EAFE 1682.93 1607.81 -1.94%
Russell 2000 1128.59 1092.79 -0.64%


Consumer Money Rates

Last 1 year ago
Prime Rate 3.50 3.25
Fed Funds 0.37 0.13
30-year mortgage 3.66 3.67



Last 1 year ago
Dollars per British Pound 1.416 1.484
Dollars per Euro 1.127 1.068
Japanese Yen per Dollar 109.40 119.14
Canadian Dollars per Dollar 1.284 1.229
Mexican Peso per Dollar 17.445 15.274



Last 1 year ago
Crude Oil 41.50 56.39
Gold 1226.50 1201.30


Bond Rates

Last 1 month ago
2-year treasury 0.75 0.95
10-year treasury 1.77 1.95
10-year municipal (TEY) 2.55 2.86


Treasury Yield Curve – 04/15/2016

As of close of business 04/14/2016

Treasury Yield Curve – 04/15/2016
Economic Calendar

Apr 18 Homebuilder Sentiment (April)
Apr 19 Building Permits, Housing Starts (March)
Apr 20 Existing Home Sales (March)
Apr 21 ECB Policy Decision
Jobless Claims (week ending April 16)

Important Disclosures

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. There are special risks involved with global investing related to market and currency fluctuations, economic and political instability, and different financial accounting standards. The above material has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete. There is no assurance that any trends mentioned will continue in the future. While interest on municipal bonds is generally exempt from federal income tax, it may be subject to the federal alternative minimum tax, state or local taxes. In addition, certain municipal bonds (such as Build America Bonds) are issued without a federal tax exemption, which subjects the related interest income to federal income tax. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss.

US government bonds and treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. US government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Treasury bills are certificates reflecting short-term (less than one year) obligations of the US government.

Commodities trading is generally considered speculative because of the significant potential for investment loss. Markets for commodities are likely to be volatile and there may be sharp price fluctuations even during periods when prices overall are rising. Specific sector investing can be subject to different and greater risks than more diversified investments.

Tax Equiv Muni yields (TEY) assume a 35% tax rate on triple-A rated, tax-exempt insured revenue bonds.

Material prepared by Raymond James for use by its financial advisors.

The information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Data source: Bloomberg, as of close of business April 14th, 2016.

©2016 Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. member FINRA / SIPC.

Frazier Allen
Frazier Allenhttp://www.raymondjames.com/frazierallen
Frazier Allen, WMS, CRPS, Financial Advisor with F&M Bank 50 Franklin Street | Clarksville, TN 37040 | 931-553-2048

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