Clarksville, TN – The economic calendar was thin, leaving investors free to worry about slower global growth and Federal Reserve policy. The stock market was volatile, but not as much as in recent weeks.
The Bank of Canada and the Bank of England each left short-term interest rates unchanged. The BOC lowered rates in January and July, but showed no bias to cut rates further in the next few months. The BOE has been debating whether to start raising rates, but appears to have put such notions aside in the near term, reflecting concerns about the global economy.
This week, the reports on retail sales and industrial production have potential surprise, but the focus is clearly going to be on the Fed. A possible hike in short-term interest rates is still on the table, but global financial turmoil and concerns about growth in emerging markets should keep the Fed on hold for now.
There are three parts to the Fed’s decision on Thursday. At 2:00pm, the Fed policy statement will hit the tape. Investors will look for language suggesting the likelihood of future moves. Also at 2:00pm, the Fed will release the revised projections of senior Fed officials.
These include forecasts for GDP growth, unemployment and inflation, and the Fed will include a median forecast this time (rather than just a range). The dot plot, the projections representing each Fed official’s outlook for the year-end federal funds target rates, is part of this report.
A half hour later, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will provide more color behind the Fed policy decision and economic projections. She will then take questions from the financial press.
|Last||Last Week||YTD return %|
Consumer Money Rates
|Last||1 year ago|
|Last||1 year ago|
|Dollars per British Pound||1.545||1.621|
|Dollars per Euro||1.128||1.292|
|Japanese Yen per Dollar||120.620||106.860|
|Canadian Dollars per Dollar||1.325||1.094|
|Mexican Peso per Dollar||16.774||13.193|
|Last||1 year ago|
|Last||1 month ago|
|10-year municipal (TEY)||3.50||3.52|
Treasury Yield Curve – 09/11/2015
As of close of business 9/10/2015
|Sept 15th||—||Retail Sales (August)
Industrial Production (August)
|Sept 16th||—||Consumer Price Index (August)
Homebuilder Sentiment (September)
|Sept 17th||—||Jobless Claims (week ending September 12)
Building Permits, Housing Starts (August)
FOMC Policy Decision
Fed Summary of Economic Projections
Yellen Press Conference
|Sept 18th||—||Leading Economic Indicators (August)|
|Sept 21st||—||Existing Home Sales (August)|
|Sept 24th||—||Durable Goods Orders (August)
New Home Sales (August)
Yellen Speaks (University of Massachusetts, Amherst)
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Tax Equiv Muni yields (TEY) assume a 35% tax rate on triple-A rated, tax-exempt insured revenue bonds.
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Data source: Bloomberg, as of close of business September 10th, 2015.