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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of September 15th, 2015

 

F&M Investment Services - Raymond James - Clarksville, TNClarksville, TN – The economic calendar was thin, leaving investors free to worry about slower global growth and Federal Reserve policy. The stock market was volatile, but not as much as in recent weeks.

The Bank of Canada and the Bank of England each left short-term interest rates unchanged. The BOC lowered rates in January and July, but showed no bias to cut rates further in the next few months. The BOE has been debating whether to start raising rates, but appears to have put such notions aside in the near term, reflecting concerns about the global economy.

Frazier Allen

Frazier Allen

This week, the reports on retail sales and industrial production have potential surprise, but the focus is clearly going to be on the Fed. A possible hike in short-term interest rates is still on the table, but global financial turmoil and concerns about growth in emerging markets should keep the Fed on hold for now.

There are three parts to the Fed’s decision on Thursday. At 2:00pm, the Fed policy statement will hit the tape. Investors will look for language suggesting the likelihood of future moves. Also at 2:00pm, the Fed will release the revised projections of senior Fed officials.

These include forecasts for GDP growth, unemployment and inflation, and the Fed will include a median forecast this time (rather than just a range). The dot plot, the projections representing each Fed official’s outlook for the year-end federal funds target rates, is part of this report.

A half hour later, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will provide more color behind the Fed policy decision and economic projections. She will then take questions from the financial press.

Indices

Last Last Week YTD return %
DJIA 16330.40 16374.76 -8.37%
NASDAQ 4796.25 4733.50 1.27%
S&P 500 1952.29 1951.13 -5.18%
MSCI EAFE 1710.23 1704.05 -3.64%
Russell 2000 1153.03 1145.15 -4.29%

Consumer Money Rates

Last 1 year ago
Prime Rate 3.25 3.25
Fed Funds 0.13 0.08
30-year mortgage 4.00 4.12

Currencies

Last 1 year ago
Dollars per British Pound 1.545 1.621
Dollars per Euro 1.128 1.292
Japanese Yen per Dollar 120.620 106.860
Canadian Dollars per Dollar 1.325 1.094
Mexican Peso per Dollar 16.774 13.193

Commodities

Last 1 year ago
Crude Oil 45.92 91.67
Gold 1110.75 1249.77

Bond Rates

Last 1 month ago
2-year treasury 0.71 0.72
10-year treasury 2.18 2.19
10-year municipal (TEY) 3.50 3.52

Treasury Yield Curve – 09/11/2015

As of close of business 9/10/2015

Treasury Yield Curve – 09/11/2015

Economic Calendar

Sept 15th Retail Sales (August)
Industrial Production (August)
Sept 16th Consumer Price Index (August)
Homebuilder Sentiment (September)
Sept 17th Jobless Claims (week ending September 12)
Building Permits, Housing Starts (August)
FOMC Policy Decision
Fed Summary of Economic Projections
Yellen Press Conference
Sept 18th Leading Economic Indicators (August)
Sept 21st Existing Home Sales (August)
Sept 24th Durable Goods Orders (August)
New Home Sales (August)
Yellen Speaks (University of Massachusetts, Amherst)

Important Disclosures

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. There are special risks involved with global investing related to market and currency fluctuations, economic and political instability, and different financial accounting standards. The above material has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete. There is no assurance that any trends mentioned will continue in the future. While interest on municipal bonds is generally exempt from federal income tax, it may be subject to the federal alternative minimum tax, state or local taxes. In addition, certain municipal bonds (such as Build America Bonds) are issued without a federal tax exemption, which subjects the related interest income to federal income tax. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss.

US government bonds and treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. US government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Treasury bills are certificates reflecting short-term (less than one year) obligations of the US government.

Commodities trading is generally considered speculative because of the significant potential for investment loss. Markets for commodities are likely to be volatile and there may be sharp price fluctuations even during periods when prices overall are rising. Specific sector investing can be subject to different and greater risks than more diversified investments.

Tax Equiv Muni yields (TEY) assume a 35% tax rate on triple-A rated, tax-exempt insured revenue bonds.

Material prepared by Raymond James for use by its financial advisors.

The information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Data source: Bloomberg, as of close of business September 10th, 2015.

©2015 Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. member FINRA / SIPC.


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