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Clarksville, TN – The important economic data reports were bunched up on Friday. December retail sales results were somewhat disappointing. Industrial production was weighed down by mild temperatures (lower output of utilities) and a further contraction in energy exploration.
Manufacturing output edged down modestly, mixed across sectors, but generally soft over the last several months. The New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Index fell sharply in January.U.S. data reports were largely overshadowed by continued concerns about China (economy, stock market, large capital outflows) and oil. Many investors look at oil prices as a key gauge of global demand.
Therefore, a push below $30.00 per barrel is taken as a sign of weakness. China’s stock market continued to weaken, despite government efforts to prop it up (in addition, the country’s central bank injected liquidity into the system).
Next week, the U.S. economic data reports are not critical to the overall outlook, but are likely to be overshadowed anyway by developments in China. Worries about China were a key concern for U.S. investors last summer.
At that time, authorities in China appeared to get a handle on things, eventually calming U.S. investors’ nerves. Investors here are also worried about the slowdown in U.S. manufacturing, but that’s not necessarily consistent with a recession in the overall economy.
Consumer Money Rates
Treasury Yield Curve – 01/15/2016
As of close of business 01/14/2016
US government bonds and treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. US government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Treasury bills are certificates reflecting short-term (less than one year) obligations of the US government.
Commodities trading is generally considered speculative because of the significant potential for investment loss. Markets for commodities are likely to be volatile and there may be sharp price fluctuations even during periods when prices overall are rising. Specific sector investing can be subject to different and greater risks than more diversified investments.
Tax Equiv Muni yields (TEY) assume a 35% tax rate on triple-A rated, tax-exempt insured revenue bonds.
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Data source: Bloomberg, as of close of business January 14th, 2016.
Frazier Allen, WMS, CRPS, Financial Advisor with F&M Bank
Web Site: http://www.raymondjames.com/frazierallen
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