Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of January 16th, 2016

Clarksville, TN – The important economic data reports were bunched up on Friday. December retail sales results were somewhat disappointing. Industrial production was weighed down by mild temperatures (lower output of utilities) and a further contraction in energy exploration.

Manufacturing output edged down modestly, mixed across sectors, but generally soft over the last several months. The New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Index fell sharply in January.

U.S. data reports were largely overshadowed by continued concerns about China (economy, stock market, large capital outflows) and oil. Many investors look at oil prices as a key gauge of global demand.

Therefore, a push below $30.00 per barrel is taken as a sign of weakness. China’s stock market continued to weaken, despite government efforts to prop it up (in addition, the country’s central bank injected liquidity into the system).

Next week, the U.S. economic data reports are not critical to the overall outlook, but are likely to be overshadowed anyway by developments in China. Worries about China were a key concern for U.S. investors last summer.

At that time, authorities in China appeared to get a handle on things, eventually calming U.S. investors’ nerves. Investors here are also worried about the slowdown in U.S. manufacturing, but that’s not necessarily consistent with a recession in the overall economy.

Important Disclosures

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. There are special risks involved with global investing related to market and currency fluctuations, economic and political instability, and different financial accounting standards. The above material has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete. There is no assurance that any trends mentioned will continue in the future. While interest on municipal bonds is generally exempt from federal income tax, it may be subject to the federal alternative minimum tax, state or local taxes. In addition, certain municipal bonds (such as Build America Bonds) are issued without a federal tax exemption, which subjects the related interest income to federal income tax. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss.

US government bonds and treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. US government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Treasury bills are certificates reflecting short-term (less than one year) obligations of the US government.

Commodities trading is generally considered speculative because of the significant potential for investment loss. Markets for commodities are likely to be volatile and there may be sharp price fluctuations even during periods when prices overall are rising. Specific sector investing can be subject to different and greater risks than more diversified investments.

Tax Equiv Muni yields (TEY) assume a 35% tax rate on triple-A rated, tax-exempt insured revenue bonds.

Material prepared by Raymond James for use by its financial advisors.

The information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Data source: Bloomberg, as of close of business January 14th, 2016.

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