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Clarksville Weekly Market Snapshot from Frazier Allen for the week of April 10th, 2016

F&M Investment Services - Raymond James - Clarksville, TNClarksville, TN – The minutes of the March 15th-16th FOMC meeting showed that most officials did not see much change in their growth outlooks since December, due partly to expectations of a more gradual policy path (recall that most officials had expected four 25-basis-point hikes in 2016, but now see two).

“Several” meeting participants “argued for proceeding cautiously in reducing policy accommodation,” noting the downside risks from the rest of the world and the possibility that inflation expectations could fall.

Frazier Allen
Frazier Allen

“A couple” wanted to raise rates at the March meeting. “Many” noted that asymmetry in policy risks. That is, the Fed has a limited ability to use conventional policy in response to economic weakness, but could more easily correct course (by raising rates quicker) if the economy were to prove a lot stronger than expected.

The economic data were mixed. Factory orders were in line with expectations, but durable goods orders fell more sharply than was reported earlier and shipments of nondefense capital goods were on a steeper downward track in 1Q16. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index rose a bit more than expected.

Stock market sentiment seemed to shift day by day, while the bond market is pricing in a much more gradual glide path for Fed interest rate increases.

Next week, the mid-month data pour in, with a likely focus on the retail sales report. Retail sales were reported soft in January and February, not a big deal, but we want to see better results for March. Unit auto sales fell last month (dealers cited tight inventories of popular models and a lack of incentives).

Higher gasoline prices should add to the ex-autos figure. Core retail sales are likely to be moderate, but watch for possible revisions to January and February. Higher gasoline prices will add to the monthly inflation reports, but the impact will be lessened by the seasonal adjustment. Core inflation should remain moderate.


Last Last Week YTD return %
DJIA 17541.96 17685.09 0.67%
NASDAQ 4848.37 4869.85 -3.18%
S&P 500 2041.91 2059.74 -0.10%
MSCI EAFE 1607.81 1652.04 -6.32%
Russell 2000 1092.79 1114.03 -3.79%

Consumer Money Rates

Last 1 year ago
Prime Rate 3.50 3.25
Fed Funds 0.37 0.07
30-year mortgage 3.64 3.66


Last 1 year ago
Dollars per British Pound 1.406 1.481
Dollars per Euro 1.138 1.078
Japanese Yen per Dollar 108.210 120.130
Canadian Dollars per Dollar 1.315 1.251
Mexican Peso per Dollar 17.876 14.933


Last 1 year ago
Crude Oil 37.75 53.98
Gold 1223.80 1210.60

Bond Rates

Last 1 month ago
2-year treasury 0.69 0.84
10-year treasury 1.69 1.83
10-year municipal (TEY) 2.54 2.71

Treasury Yield Curve – 04/08/2016

As of close of business 04/07/2016

Treasury Yield Curve – 04/08/2016

Economic Calendar

Apr 12th Import Prices (March)
Small Business Optimism Index (March)
IMF World Economic Outlook (updated)
Apr 13th Producer Price Index (March)
Retail Sales (March)
Fed Beige Book
Apr 14th Jobless Claims (week ending April 9)
Consumer Price Index (March)
Apr 15th Empire State Manufacturing Index (April)
Industrial Production (March)

Important Disclosures

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. There are special risks involved with global investing related to market and currency fluctuations, economic and political instability, and different financial accounting standards. The above material has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete. There is no assurance that any trends mentioned will continue in the future. While interest on municipal bonds is generally exempt from federal income tax, it may be subject to the federal alternative minimum tax, state or local taxes. In addition, certain municipal bonds (such as Build America Bonds) are issued without a federal tax exemption, which subjects the related interest income to federal income tax. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss.

US government bonds and treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. US government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Treasury bills are certificates reflecting short-term (less than one year) obligations of the US government.

Commodities trading is generally considered speculative because of the significant potential for investment loss. Markets for commodities are likely to be volatile and there may be sharp price fluctuations even during periods when prices overall are rising. Specific sector investing can be subject to different and greater risks than more diversified investments.

Tax Equiv Muni yields (TEY) assume a 35% tax rate on triple-A rated, tax-exempt insured revenue bonds.

Material prepared by Raymond James for use by its financial advisors.

The information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Data source: Bloomberg, as of close of business April 7th, 2016.

©2016 Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. member FINRA / SIPC.

Frazier Allen
Frazier Allenhttp://www.raymondjames.com/frazierallen
Frazier Allen, WMS, CRPS, Financial Advisor with F&M Bank 50 Franklin Street | Clarksville, TN 37040 | 931-553-2048

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