Clarksville, TN – Next week, the economic calendar picks up, with the important figures (nonfarm payrolls, ISM manufacturing) arriving as market participants get set for the three-day weekend. Consumer confidence figures will cover the first half of the month and are therefore unlikely to reflect much of an impact from Charlottesville.
Second quarter GDP growth is likely to be revised higher in the 2nd estimate (a 2.6% pace in the advance estimate).
Nonfarm payrolls are expected to have posted a moderately strong gain in the initial estimate for August (but note that monthly figures are reported accurate to ±120.000).
The unemployment rate should be flat or slightly low.
There’s often noise in the average hourly earnings data (hence, a good chance for a surprise), but the trend is likely to remain moderate.
Indices
| Last | Last Week | YTD return % | |
| DJIA | 21783.40 | 21750.73 | 10.23% |
| NASDAQ | 6271.33 | 6221.91 | 16.50% |
| S&P 500 | 2438.97 | 2430.01 | 8.94% |
| MSCI EAFE | 1919.54 | 1926.32 | 13.99% |
| Russell 2000 | 1373.88 | 1358.94 | 1.23% |
Consumer Money Rates
| Last | 1 year ago | |
| Prime Rate | 4.25 | 3.50 |
| Fed Funds | 1.16 | 0.40 |
| 30-year mortgage | 3.95 | 3.67 |
Currencies
| Last | 1 year ago | |
| Dollars per British Pound | 1.280 | 1.319 |
| Dollars per Euro | 1.180 | 1.128 |
| Japanese Yen per Dollar | 109.56 | 100.53 |
| Canadian Dollars per Dollar | 1.252 | 1.292 |
| Mexican Peso per Dollar | 17.726 | 18.366 |
Commodities
| Last | 1 year ago | |
| Crude Oil | 47.43 | 47.33 |
| Gold | 1292.00 | 1324.60 |
Bond Rates
| Last | 1 month ago | |
| 2-year treasury | 1.34 | 1.38 |
| 10-year treasury | 2.20 | 2.27 |
| 10-year municipal (TEY) | 2.88 | 2.88 |
Treasury Yield Curve – 08/25/2017
As of close of business 08/24/2017
S&P Sector Performance (YTD) – 08/25/2017
As of close of business 08/24/2017
Economic Calendar
| August 29 | — | CB Consumer Confidence (August) |
| August 30 | — | ADP Payroll Estimate (August) |
| — | Real GDP (2Q17, 2nd estimate) | |
| August 31 | — | Jobless Claims (week ending August 19) |
| — | Personal Income, Spending (July) | |
| — | Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (August) | |
| — | Pending Home Sales Index (July) | |
| September 1 | — | Employment Report (August) |
| — | ISM Manufacturing Index (August) | |
| September 4 | — | Labor Day Holiday (markets closed) |
| September 6 | — | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (August) |
| — | Fed Beige Book | |
| September 15 | — | Retail Sales (August) |
| September 20 | — | FOMC Policy Decision (Yellen press conference) |
Important Disclosures
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. There are special risks involved with global investing related to market and currency fluctuations, economic and political instability, and different financial accounting standards. The above material has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete. There is no assurance that any trends mentioned will continue in the future. While interest on municipal bonds is generally exempt from federal income tax, it may be subject to the federal alternative minimum tax, state or local taxes. In addition, certain municipal bonds (such as Build America Bonds) are issued without a federal tax exemption, which subjects the related interest income to federal income tax. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss.US government bonds and treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. US government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Treasury bills are certificates reflecting short-term (less than one year) obligations of the US government.
Commodities trading is generally considered speculative because of the significant potential for investment loss. Markets for commodities are likely to be volatile and there may be sharp price fluctuations even during periods when prices overall are rising. Specific sector investing can be subject to different and greater risks than more diversified investments.
Tax Equiv Muni yields (TEY) assume a 35% tax rate on triple-A rated, tax-exempt insured revenue bonds.
Material prepared by Raymond James for use by its financial advisors.
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Data source: Bloomberg, as of close of business August 24th, 2017.
